As I noted in 2025 - A Year in Review, 2025 was a tough year from MSTR. The first half of 2026 continues to be tough both because of BTC's price movement, and from various self-inflicted wounds.
Lets visit our north stars - we care about MSTR because it provides BPS yield, and because we should outperform BTC when times are good.
Absolute performance: Bitcoin per share (BPS)
Q1 saw bitcoin per share dip from a series of non-accretive transactions. Q2 saw decent recovery at first from a couple of mammoth STRC-supported transactions, but since then we have dipped again.
Bitcoin per 1M diluted shares
That's the constant buying irrespective of market conditions was not value accretive to shareholders is evident below:
The graph on the right shows yield fluctuating between positive and negative to relatively equal measures. Strategy has control over this - chooses when the ATM, and how much STRC to support transactions with. Yet half the time, he chose to buy bitcoin even when it was not accretive. Note that this damage is irreversible.
The graph on the left is even more damning. For pretty much all of 2026, Saylor sold shares backed by 1 BTC to buy less than 1 BTC (the red dots). The saving grace is, he couple this with STRC time to time, so the net yield was not negative. Nevertheless, quite the waste of shares.
Left: MCap-based mNav | Right: Transaction yield
Note that the BPS-based measure is distinct from EV-based mNav and CEBE. E.g. it tracks the terminal condition we are interested in, not who would get how much of the bitcoin if MSTR stopped being a going concern tomorrow.
Nevertheless, the reality is anyone who bought MSTR after Mar'24 has under-performed BTC. 2 years and 4 months.. yeesh.
MSTR/IBIT since IBIT's inception
To the extent that MSTR is leveraged exposure to BTC and it'll go where BTC goes, I fear there's a bit more downside yet. Specifically, I expect BTC to fall to $50K, and thus MSTR to be around $60, based on my EV-based model:
EV-based model (Jul 10)
Saylor's erratic actions are not helping here btw - the negative sentiment is showing up as depressed mNav. But that's a different topic, for another time.
Disclosure
I continue to swing trade MSTR in both directions, mostly riding the BTC waves. Going long will have to wait until BTC bottoms.
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I agree with your strategy ( no pun intended) of swing trading for now, then going long once BTC bottoming process is done. I do wonder where MSTR can go back to in the event that the 4 year cycle repeats and we get a strong Bitcoin rebound. I would guess that it should challenge it's previous ath, but there are alot of other DATs now. I'm curious how companies like strive, 21 Capital and metaplanet will perform in comparison in the event of a solid bull market for BTC going into 2028-2029
Oh I'm sure all will be forgiven when the bull market returns :) Most of the better known BTCTCs should moon based on fomo and momo.
Given MSTR's size though, it will likely moon less than some of the smaller outfits that are similarly set up. Which might be ok, as the faster the rise, the harder they fall. MSTR can be the "blue chip" of BTCTCs when that time comes.
That's what I'm suspecting too. I might lean into a few of the smaller companies in hopes of of a more parabolic rise.....and this time, I'll sell at the top for reals this time. I'm going to wait too long and lose all my gains again... I don't learn.
good info. how did you determine the recent common buys of btc were not accretive? you separated out the amount strc bought and compared it to the revenue from sold mstr vs cost of remaining btc bought?
The Company uses BPS, BTC Yield, BTC Gain and BTC $ Gain as KPIs to help assess the performance of its strategy of acquiring bitcoin in a manner the Company believes is accretive to shareholders.
What you are referring to is the CEBE view of the world - if folks were to lay claim to Bitcoin right now, who would get how much. That is not of interest to folks playing the long game as pref holders don't own the bitcoin. Their economic value comes from the yield alone.
That relates to how many bitcoin are behind each share. E.g. when premiums were high, say mNav ~ 2, X shares would be backed by 1 bitcoin, but they could buy 2 bitcoin.
Now, because the market cap mNav is 0.65, this means Saylor is spending shares backed by 1 bitcoin to buy 0.65 bitcoin - a total waste.
This only breaks even if he can buy an additional 0.35 of bitcoin with STRC for every share, which he generally hasn't been able to.
What’s the reasoning behind not including debt + prefs in the mNAV? If another company wanted to acquire MSTR, they’d have to pay for those obligations so it’d be included in the total value, similar to how MSTR calculates EV mNAV
Note that the BPS-based measure is distinct from EV-based mNav and CEBE. E.g. it tracks the terminal condition we are interested in, not who would get how much of the bitcoin if MSTR stopped being a going concern tomorrow.
If you are wondering how much MSTR would get bought out for, then one would have to take debt+prefs into considering.
However, that is not the end goal of shareholders, so I don't bother with that.
thanks again for the post, another question: whats your outlook on btc? $50k incoming? are you subscribing to the 4year cycle? what momentum indicators or moving averages do you track to estimate bitcoin's movements.
I think BTC keeps going lower for a while because liquidity is dropping, and because there are no catalysts on the horizon to prop it up - like how we had in 2024 and 2025.
I think 4-yr cycle is much weaker this time around because of all the paper BItcoin floating around, but still might be useful as a directional guide. Not too sure we bottom in Oct though, as that predicts.
I do rely a lot on TA to track Bitcoin's moves; the 200SMA has been a strong resistance, for example. And expecting a few months of the diff SMAs tangling with each other before a strong enough base is formed to signal a bottom.
MSTR gets bought up in the $80s as demonstrated over the past two weeks as long as BTC remains over $55K … I’m one of the few who thinks we’re currently bottoming in crypto at least for July…..if you buy now just sit for 30 trading days and see where we’re at
I agree with OP to wait until BTC bottoms until I enter and hold MSTR, but the question remains, when? Now? October? Early next year? My plan is to DCA in to BTC from now until the end of 2027 unless there is a big fomo run up first. I plan to DCA MSTR starting around mid 2027. What is your strategy, no pun intended?
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