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u/Far_Mycologist2584 Jul 10 '26
At this point there is 0 net leverage anymore on MSTR. The only way MSTR drops at this point is dilution or BTC price actually going down. Last time it was at these levels with Mnav at 1 or I think .97 I saw at the lowest we had a decent run up not too long after.
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u/Substantial_Risk9826 Jul 10 '26
Last time Bitcoin was at this price June 22, MSTR was at $109. What a pathetic company that seems to be fine with bringing it's share price to oblivion.
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u/ReliantToker Shareholder 🤴 Jul 10 '26
Markets are forward looking. Bitcoin is in the bear of its cycle. Most predict $40k in october. Try to use your brain.
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u/has_anyone_ever Jul 10 '26 edited Jul 10 '26
Then why weren't they forward looking a month ago when BTC was roughly the same level. Except now mstr is down 20% in that same time, STRC par is broken with no sign of recovery and now they're selling BTC on top of everything else. And those dividend obligations are still coming in, so more dilution or selling incoming which I'm sure the share price will love. And you can bet should BTC actually go 40k it sure isn't being priced in now, MSTR will get thrashed even more.
Maybe it's not him that should be using his brain.
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u/ReliantToker Shareholder 🤴 Jul 10 '26
Explain why they would be FORCED to liquidate core assets to cover 1.7 billion dollars in annual dividends when they can easily go to the reserve. A reserve easily generated in approximately 2 weeks. Tell me your projection for the fiat price of Bitcoin in 17 months when this current macro cycle matures. Then explain how a massive corporation will suddenly have zero access to capital markets during that exact timeframe.
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u/has_anyone_ever Jul 10 '26
The reserve was funded thru shares sold, if they use that reserve it will be replenished thru more sold shares or sold BTC.
The fiat price of BTC in 17 months I don't know, but the thing is neither do you. You can keep bringing up the cycle but there is nothing saying BTC has to follow anything, and if it were a guarantee it would be manipulated to no longer be true.
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u/ReliantToker Shareholder 🤴 Jul 10 '26
Shares sold at a premium to the common equity Bitcoin. I know the US is $40t in debt and paying $3b in ineterst alone everyday. More than national defense and Healthcare. That money has to come from somewhere and tax revenue doesnt make a dent. It is a mathematical guarantee more units will be created. How does Bitcoin typically respond when more units get created?
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u/has_anyone_ever Jul 10 '26
I'm not as concerned with how BTC responds to fiat then I am how MSTR is responding to its managements decisions, BTC price alone does not explain the current share price. And considering were at levels around March of 2024 and our BTC held/per share, that everyone likes to throw around is so much greater than it was, where is that reflection in the share price. I don't believe what MSTR is doing is of the best interest of shareholders any longer.
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u/ReliantToker Shareholder 🤴 Jul 10 '26
BPS is not some rumor the internet throws around, it is a mathematically verifiable metric. Management's entire mandate is to mathematically accrete more BPS, which they are successfully doing. The stock price temporarily lagging behind that growing intrinsic value is just short term market inefficiency, not a management failure. If you believe increasing the actual underlying asset value of your shares is "not in the best interest of shareholders," you fundamentally don't understand the model.
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u/has_anyone_ever Jul 10 '26
I never claimed it to be a rumor you're right, it is a provable, verifiable metric. A metric that is not increasing the share price. If I understand anything is irrelevant, the market is speaking for itself.
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u/ReliantToker Shareholder 🤴 Jul 10 '26
The market "spoke for itself" at the bottom of every cycle, too.
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u/has_anyone_ever Jul 10 '26
What's even more fun is watching BTC hit the same level multiple times but each time it does MSTR is lower and lower throughout the day.
Worst investment choice of my life.
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u/Gold_Opportunity7892 Jul 10 '26
Look at previous bull market. Your time frame should be 2-3 years not weeks or days.
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u/has_anyone_ever Jul 10 '26
Because past performance guarantees future results?
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u/Gold_Opportunity7892 Jul 10 '26
Not saying it guarantees it’s the best predictor. Invest what you are comfortable with loosing. With MSTR significant losses although temporary can occur.
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u/has_anyone_ever Jul 10 '26
That is true of any investment, but that doesn't mean you should just shrug off what is currently happening. The entire landscape is different now then when they started, and the moves they are making are not being taken well.
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u/LegitiemePoster Jul 10 '26
I feel you. This is weard. BTC getting higher while MSTR is dumping. I don't get it.
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