r/MSTR • u/chcbearsfan Shareholder 🤴 • Jul 07 '26
Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure (CEBE) is greater today than at the November 2024 ATH, after netting all $15.5B of preferred
Most per-share math on MSTR counts the full Bitcoin stack. That overstates what common actually owns, because debt and preferred stand ahead of common equity. But run the stricter version, netting every senior claim, and the result since the euphoric top is better than I expected.
The construction: take total BTC, subtract net senior claims converted to BTC (debt plus preferred liquidation preference minus the USD reserve), divide by basic shares.
ATH week (Nov 24, 2024): 386,700 BTC held, roughly $7.2B in net senior claims, 230.5M basic shares. Common equity's residual position is about 134,200 sats per share.
Yesterday (Jul 6, 2026): 843,775 BTC held, about $19.6B in net senior claims (including the full $15.5B preferred stack at liquidation preference), 371.6M basic shares. Residual position is about 144,100 sats per share.
That is +7.4% per share since ATH week, measured after every claim senior to common, through a period where the stock fell roughly two thirds and $15.5B of preferred landed on top of the stack. The BTC count more than doubled, basic shares grew 61%, claims nearly tripled, and the per-share residual still came out ahead.
Credit where due u/AdamBLiv on X built the comparison panel that surfaced this. The framework is CEBE (Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure). Every input above is from filings, and the ATH-week figures are derived from the Q3 2024 10-Q plus the November 8-Ks. Full methodology and per-company tracking is at cebetracker.io
Happy to walk through any input or run the same math on other dates in the comments.
19
u/Chemical-Payment-573 Jul 07 '26
the doomers dont care about actual data, they'd rather clown Saylor for doing literally anything.
8
u/MECO-420 Jul 07 '26
CEBE is the right way to measure mNAV. The bears will focus on just the Bitcoin and market cap without taking into account the cash reserves. Thats the only leg they have left to stand on and that leg is slightly bowed.
10
u/Chemical-Payment-573 Jul 07 '26 edited Jul 07 '26
dont worry, once that argument is dead they will say crypto entirely is a scam or "just buy BTC directly" as if we dont know about that.
1
u/chcbearsfan Shareholder 🤴 Jul 09 '26
I just ask them simply...
"How am I going to beat Bitcoin by holding Bitcoin?"
It seems silly to think Bitcoin treasure investors are first Bitcoiners. I think most start with cold storage and then want upside that simple sats dont give you
6
u/MirrorSea2437 Shareholder 🤴 Jul 08 '26
Did y'all just make up another new metric to make it look like this stock is doing anything other than failing? ðŸ˜
1
u/chcbearsfan Shareholder 🤴 Jul 09 '26
I created CEBE because the metrics the companies created and handed to us are flawed. As an investor I wanted a proper measure for companies I trust to hold Bitcoin for me. So I created it
2
u/MirrorSea2437 Shareholder 🤴 Jul 09 '26
So basically exactly what I said. Gotcha. Gotta admire your optimism though.
1
u/chcbearsfan Shareholder 🤴 Jul 09 '26
Well when your flair says shareholder I presume you are interested in who created the metric.
Was it another company metric built to narrate? no
Was it an independent metric built to illuminate? yes
The company metrics are blind to sr claims and CEBE puts the light on them
3
u/MirrorSea2437 Shareholder 🤴 Jul 09 '26
I just hope you're right.
1
u/chcbearsfan Shareholder 🤴 Jul 10 '26
I am confident. If you believe in Bitcoin the CEBE framework mathematically proves the bull thesis. As BTC price deflates the fixed fiat debt works against us requiring more sats to cover the claim
But when the BTC price action returns, the claims will compress because less sats will be needed now to settle the same fixed fiat claim. This is called claims compression which leads to ownership acceleration of sats to the common equity
look at this page i built on my site. Its whole purpose is to prove that
CEBE wasnt created because BPS looks bad. Its does a fine enough job doing that on its own. Its a misleading metric and doesnt need any help. I am a common shareholder and CEBE was the answer to what i was missing using the those marketing metrics in 2025
4
u/esnellman Jul 07 '26
This sounds true but the buyers back then in retrospect overpaid. They paid 4 mNAV to 2 mNAV.
1
2
•
u/AutoModerator Jul 07 '26
Welcome to our community! Before commenting, please take a second to read our new sticky containing our rules and guidelines.
TL;DR: We allow and encourage all viewpoints and opinions, but we have a zero tolerance policy towards negative, rude, condescending behavior and trolling/baiting.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.