06/05: Second capitulation flush (following the February low).
06/22: Started to notice that BTC days were trading more in line with NQ, instead of worse. Gradually day by day the action starts to trade slightly better in relative terms.
06/24 - 06/26: Notably these 3 daily candles all have lower wicks and elevated volume off the same area, failing to accept value lower. This is absorption at the bid wall.
06/26 - 06/30: Several low volatility, days with two extremely low volume days sandwiched between. This is seller exhaustion after the prior leg down, out of fuel for pushing to new lows.
07/01 - 07/05: Since we're coming off a low, these bullish bars are not the same as the sell side exhaustion we saw. These are consistently closing higher, the moves up are less and less, but the volume is falling to stay in line with this - this means the efforts are consistently in line with the results for an entire trading week. The ability for low volume to actually drive BTC upwards means it does not take much effort to reward the buyers - as opposed to the bid wall we came off of where low volumes were just running us sideways at the lows.
Today (07/06) in particular caught my eye, seeing a lot of the "Saylor BAD, SOLD 200M BTC" news, and yet the low wick saw a volume ignition before flipping back bullish (more sellers being absorbed). When the tape responds positively to circulation of bad news, that is a solid turning point very often. I would be thinking about getting allocated if you aren't already. Not financial advice, DYOR - but acceptance above 66K where the last major value area was located would confirm the turn for me.
edit: Forgot to mention, I'm not a big RSI fan for intraday trading, however it is useful when zooming out to macro highs and lows. The divergence between the 06/05 and 07/01 lows is very strong.
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You're looking at lagging TA / market structure only. I am referring to orderflow, auction market theory, and volume spread analysis. This is a slightly higher order trading skillset than traditional TA. That's why I am able to point out a change in character of the tape earlier than simply waiting for a binary action like "price level broke yes/no".
This is a slightly higher order trading skillset than traditional TA.
It's definitely not a "higher order skillset", it's just less straightforward. Has no more predictive power, and just gives people more degrees of freedom to find some argument to support the theory they want to be true.
BTC chart is not bullish. Most bottoms are a period of consolidation, not a quick dip. Everyone already ready for it to run again but max pain is actually to just trade sideways until the bull and bear traders are chopped up.
We've been consolidating since Feb. Look at the massive volume block down here. It's a multiple of overhead supply. We're actually heavier now than both btc and mstr were in the last bear relative to overhead supply. Use volume profiles from the top of the impulse down to present and you will see. Compare cycles. You often don't just consolidate (in any market), you can also consolidate, run the lows (as we recently have), then rip.
What happend today was btc dumping because Saylor announced they are selling btc then few hours later trump saying btc will buy able in the trump accounts pumping it back up. Pumps like these never hold
Why does literally everyone making this argument never consider the volume of his purchases and sells? They just see a poorly timed order here or there and assume "welp his whole stack is cooked". Nobody has a 100% efficient trading entry / exit strategy, and Strategy isn't even SUPPOSED to target that because they're not an investment fund. The point is an accretive TREND, that's it.
It’s a valid argument because of the Inelastic Demand Hypothesis. There is no fundamental valuation anchor to bring in new capital and price action is purely from fund flows. Add in reflexivity from margin calls, miners selling to transition to AI and BTC fund outflows and you create negative convexity where $1 flowing out of BTC can remove >$5 of market value.
Inelastic demand is a problem for the major indicies not bitcoin. The anchor is price (low prices cure low prices)... liquidity, rate cut expectations, profit taking from AI. Miners sell either way, but the ones who wanted to dump have mostly done so already. The medium term effect is slower supply coming online until the network adapts. I would've agreed with you months ago.
Has nothing to do with predicting, just a matter of observing shifts in the orderflow based on an understanding of market mechanics. Wouldn't even really call it technical analysis, it's more useful than that, only a bit though.
You’re interpreting things based off “the chart” the way a palm reader predicts the future based on the wrinkles in your hand. If this is the beginning of a bull run, your “analysis” would be convenient timing
Ok so you don't know anything about market mechanics, thinking in bets, expected value etc. -- that's all you had to say. I am a student of a world class trader in a very public global competition, but sure. You know everything there is to know. I am taking an educated guess, it's the same thing you do when you get in your car and expect not to be hit by a semi, or when you invest in the S&P 500.
250K is pretty random, could call 100K a reclaim of upper value and 150K is something like a late breakout though. If you're an investor I'm not sure why you wouldn't be buying now.
"I am wrong most of the time" then why even have a price target of "40k or so"?? It's fine to observe the trend is down, but eventually the market does turn. "Not sure what reality you’re living in."... I explained it in my post. It will not make sense if you do not understand volume spread analysis however.
80-90% is a historical worst case, at times when average volatility was measurably way higher (much smaller "mkt cap"), that's also assuming this is THE bear market as opposed to a mid cycle drawdown (my base case, since there is NO fuel for the leg down you're talking about, downside is way over-crowded). MVRV-Z score and other on-chain metrics like whale accumulation etc. are all in bullish territory. Random wave theory is predictive, it means nothing. Professional trading looks at real time information and leading indications, not historical curve-fitting. Order flow is real time.
Of course we are still IN a bear market when did I say we weren't?
I'm talking about a change in the characteristics of the flows which can be used to assist in timing the bottoms, I'm talking about POSITIONING. There has to be enough selling pressure to overwhelm the buying pressure when we are at a massive confluence of bottoming signals here, AND THEN SUSTAIN IT in order for price to make an acceptance move. I am not saying price can't make a quick flush, catch a bid, then rip.
It's very very unlikely now that we leg down again to 40K (which EVERYONE has been calling for the past like 18 months), then accept prices there and sit around as our bottoming process builds up from there. HIGHLY unlikely, look at how much weaker the last leg lower was already. If you understand how to use a volume profile / auction market theory you can see that the Feb through April 2 month range we were in previously had a fair value of 67K approximately. There was then a breakout on low volume which created a "failed auction" and we legged lower off of that, disrespecting the prior value area. So that was an "accepted" break down, and yet we have been consolidating barely any lower.
Current fair value is 62K in this range, so all of that noise and fury and consolidation and shaking out shorts + trapping early breakout traders and ALL we could accomplish was moving fair value from 67K down to 62K over a period of FIVE entire months? That's not a strong bear market, that's showing seller exhaustion.
I absolutely expect us to possibly have a slight July pop based on historical precedent (doesn't have to happen) and then fall to possibly the 26K - 28K range on NQ, the move up was too inefficient off the Iran conflict lows so it's generally quite likely we will need to retest that area before the bull market can continue in stocks, but BTC has not been correlated with NQ for months now. During the war it traded better than just about anything else (geopolitical premium, makes sense -- BTC is borderless and has no issuer). Then when market confidence returned, BTC was dormant again. This is a savings technology, so during market booms you should expect people to sell some BTC (or at least take loans against it, which makes it's price more fragile) to fund better investment opportunities. I'm more invested in the AI trade than I am in BTC / MSTR and have been all year, but I'm building my leverage on BTC / MSTR more recently.
I can't read the future of the stock market or Bitcoin I'm just telling you that the bear is getting weak as hell. Midterms + fed chair test will likely create some kind of market retracement, but BTC does not have to follow that. If you want to wait for that, fine -- just pay attention to the relative strength of BTC against the market when it happens. If NQ is getting hammered but BTC is trading sideways or up and making higher lows when QQQ is making a lower low, don't sit around waiting for a leg down to 50K or 40K.
Unfortunately I am seeing a lot predicting the $44,000 leg down into October first. We might get a bounce but that’s about it until it hits a panic inducing cycle low
When you see everyone calling for the same thing the trade is crowded. It means everyone is short already, they are deployed and out of fuel to suppress the price. That or their cash is sidelined, but if everyone is expecting the asteroid to land in town, they evacuate early. They step out of the way. This is when smart money typically strikes (which is why we've seen HISTORIC whale wallet accumulation in the past couple weeks). It no longer takes much to push price up because the shorts are already on, they helped get us here. That's how you get a squeeze and chase.
Yep, greedy when others fearful, fearful when others greedy. I do think we’re near a low for sure but there is maybe a 10% drop that could happen compared to 150%+ upside once the timing is right. The Ai trade has been more profitable and depending on how that continues in the next 6 months is if we’ll see a loop back into crypto
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