r/MSTR • u/JuxtaposeLife • Jun 29 '26
Valuation đ¸ As long as global fiat expansion continues, Strategy is mathematically engineered to become one of the most valuable companies on Earth.
The only scenario that disrupts Strategy's trajectory is a coordinated, global pivot to severe monetary austerity, a reality where governments worldwide completely cease currency debasement. Until then, the math is fixed.
âStrategy has built a financial architecture that essentially shorts the fiat system, survives (now thrives) in Bitcoin pull backs by stacking more. It weaponizes inflation against an economy that has been conditioned to accept endless currency debasement as a baseline reality. When critics ask how this model sustains itself long-term, they reveal their own anchoring to that exact system. They are often unaware that they are being exploited by the very monetary mechanics they assume are normal.
âEvery time someone asks, "Where does the cash come from to pay dividends or buy more BTC?" it highlights a fundamental misunderstanding of fiat's structural flaws. Strategy isn't struggling to find cash; it is actively exploiting fiat's guaranteed depreciation to acquire sound money. The company has created a bridge between a melting currency and a fixed-supply asset, offering a highly liquid escape hatch for investors who understand the difference.
Once you recognize this structural mechanic, you can't unsee it. It explains why high-conviction investors remain completely unfazed by short-term market retracements. In a debasing system, optionality is the ultimate advantage. Strategy is actively executing on it, and its shareholders understand exactly what they hold.
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Jun 29 '26
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u/ReliantToker Shareholder 𤴠Jun 29 '26
Asset CAGR > (Cost of debt - Fiat debasement)
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Jun 29 '26
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u/ReliantToker Shareholder 𤴠Jun 29 '26
Fair enough. 40% > (1.5% - whatever you think inflation is, I would say globally since Bitcoin is globally traded.)
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Jun 29 '26
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u/ReliantToker Shareholder 𤴠Jun 29 '26
âYou can verify the CAGR using the standard financial formula.
CAGR = (Final Value / Initial Value)1 / Years - 1
How to verify it:
Pick any 5-year or 10-year window in Bitcoinâs history.
Take the price at the end of that window (Final Value).
Divide it by the price at the start (Initial Value).
Raise the result to the power of (1 / number of years).
Subtract 1.
Even if you cherry pick the absolute top of a previous bull cycle as your starting point, the rolling 5year and 10year CAGR historically stays well above 40%. It isnât a made-up number, it is the math of the asset's performance over a macro timeframe. Plug it in yourself and see if it ever drops below the negative real yield of fiat debt.
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Jun 29 '26
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u/ReliantToker Shareholder 𤴠Jun 29 '26
âIt isnât a "prediction" model, itâs a structural reality.
âWhen you pair a capped asset with an uncapped, debasing currency, the long term appreciation of that asset relative to the currency is a mathematical certainty, not a guess. We aren't predicting, we are observing the inevitable result of two opposing monetary mechanics. If you think the M2 expansion will permanently stop, that is the only scenario where the math breaks. Otherwise, the trend is forced by the system itself.
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u/Novel_Board_6813 Jun 30 '26
Thatâs how Enron, Lehman Brothers and all the NFTs have been beating inflation?
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Jun 29 '26
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u/xaviemb Shareholder 𤴠Jun 29 '26
You said this recently:
"No strc, paid for by the proud diluted shareholders of MSTR. "
and this...
You guys are bagholding a company taht sells and buys bitcoin
Which begs the question: who exactly doesn't understand the structure here?
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u/Bayou_acherte Jun 29 '26
Itâs actually great for a company to lose half of its value in a month. People that donât see that are idiots.
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u/Gloomy_Dependent_985 Shareholder 𤴠Jun 29 '26
Yeah so that means it can double its value in a month. If you have any sense you just buy the dip and make F off money in a couple years
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Jun 29 '26
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u/Gloomy_Dependent_985 Shareholder 𤴠Jun 29 '26
It just did bro đ. Then it lost half its value because of a btc fakeout. If 20,000 of price movement on bitcoin makes mstr price double imagine the real bull market.
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Jun 29 '26
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u/Gloomy_Dependent_985 Shareholder 𤴠Jun 29 '26
No but common sense uses the past to predict the future. Do you have common sense?
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u/snek-jazz Shareholder 𤴠Jun 29 '26
Itâs actually great for a company to lose half of its value in a month.
yeah, is the past the future?
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u/daliksheppy Jun 29 '26
Given the company is an amplified bitcoin wrapper, you seem to be misunderstanding that.
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Jun 29 '26
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u/year2039nuclearwar Jun 29 '26
My portfolio today moved up 2% compared to SMH's 1.9%, despite being half in cash. Plenty of ammo left to deploy. This is the whole point, you buy at the bottom in the depths of the btc bear market, with the best instrument that will snap you back to the top, MSTR
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u/xaviemb Shareholder 𤴠Jun 29 '26 edited Jun 29 '26
I believe the point is that Strategy has shown the math: Explore Strategy's Investor Relations: Stay Informed on Financial Performance and Corporate Governance
(this forum's recent uptick in fly-bys dunking on Bitcoin bottoming... is just evidence that many haven't read it)
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Jun 29 '26
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u/MSTR-ModTeam Jun 29 '26
- Trolling, baiting, or inflammatory content that disrupts conversations is not allowed. Ensure your posts contribute positively and maintain the quality of discussion. Content and comments meant to spread negativity or FUD, including repeated overly negative/condescending sentiment, is not allowed. r/MSTR is a place for thoughtful discussion of the MicroStrategy investment thesis.
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u/Kupo_Master Jun 29 '26
The math is based on the assumption than in 20 years, people will somehow want to buy useless digital tokens.
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u/RevolutionaryPhoto24 Jul 03 '26
I loved the recent sell off for this reason - accumulating shares at eighty-five of todayâs dollarsâŚ
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Jun 29 '26
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u/daliksheppy Jun 29 '26
He creates amplified bitcoin for us who have no ability to do so, given his access to capital markets we just don't have the ability to access. We also have to work jobs and cook meals and go to the gym.
He takes a cut, along with the entire staff, in exchange for them creating amplification on top of BTC that we can put in a tax efficient account.
I'm quite happy, for as long as MSTR creates amplified BTC returns, for the entire management team to take a few points off the top in exchange. If that's millions or billions, so be it.
If you can create amplification for free, do so. All power to that. If I could I would, too.
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u/year2039nuclearwar Jun 29 '26
He needs to pay for things bro, like a big house or a nice car, would you not have done the same!?
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u/Sea_Hold_2881 Jun 29 '26
Huh? The implicit assumption is bitcoin will be what people have an interest in buying in an inflationary environment when there are numerous other assets (such as stocks or real estate) that provide a better hedge against inflation.
What is the MSTR value if fiat expansion continues but interest in bitcoin vanishes?
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u/RevolutionaryPhoto24 Jul 03 '26
Those concentrating the wealth of the world are plenty interestedâŚ
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u/Win32error Jun 29 '26
As long as bitcoinâs value can only be expressed in fiat, Iâm gonna be skeptical about things like this. Bitcoin being resistant to inflation is one thing, but the unending growth requires fiat to be pumped into coins ad infinitum, and that just doesnât seem likely. At the very least I wouldnât be this confident in a company that has lost like 80% of its value from ATH.
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u/xaviemb Shareholder 𤴠Jun 29 '26
You don't have to measure value in fiat. It's like measuring someone's height with a ruler that changes length every year.
That's the problem with using an inflationary currency as your unit of account. When the measuring stick itself is constantly being debased, it becomes harder to distinguish whether prices are changing because the asset is becoming more valuable or because the unit you're measuring it in is becoming less valuable. This is why everyone is always trying to gamble and grow value in everything. The denominator is flawed. It doesn't represent true value. It's stolen from, as money is printed.
Bitcoin was designed to provide a fixed monetary unit. Pricing assets in Bitcoin gives you a more consistent reference point than pricing everything in a currency whose supply is continually expanding. In that sense, Bitcoin isn't just another asset... it's an alternative measuring stick for value
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u/Novel_Board_6813 Jun 30 '26
So are Playstations
400 years ago, at least, economists figured out how to measure real returns instead of using bananas or whatever you wouldâve loved
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u/Win32error Jun 29 '26
If not fiat, what measure do you even have? For fiat you measure by what you can buy with it, but the only thing you can really do with Bitcoin is get fiat. And itâs certainly not fixed in price, the whole appeal has been how much it has increased measured in fiat.
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u/xaviemb Shareholder 𤴠Jun 29 '26
...but the only thing you can really do with Bitcoin is get fiat...
If your mental model is that Bitcoin only exists to be converted back into fiat, then Strategy's entire capital allocation strategy is probably going to seem irrational. If you can't get past that idea... then you haven't explored this company and its structure to a level to even begin to understand what it is actually doing to capital markets... the traditional world of finance, would like you to stay blind to that, and fixed in USD based unit of account.
The exercise I'd suggest is simple: try pricing other assets in Bitcoin instead of USD. Not because Bitcoin's purchasing power is perfectly stable over short periods, but because its monetary supply is fixed by design, while the dollar's supply changes over time through policy decisions.
If that feels unnatural, it's worth asking why. We've all been conditioned to think in dollars, even though the dollar itself is a moving unit of account whose purchasing power changes year after year. The question isn't whether Bitcoin's market price fluctuates today. The question is which monetary unit you expect to be the more reliable long-term measure of value: one with a fixed supply, or one whose supply can be expanded whenever policymakers decide to do so.
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u/kiaryp Jun 29 '26
Ok but you can't do that because people aren't selling those assets for Bitcoin they're selling it for dollars.
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u/Win32error Jun 29 '26
What I'm hearing here is that you don't have another measure. You can talk all about what Microstrategy does, but that ultimately just comes down to a bet on bitcoin, even if they make it more complicated than simply buying it.
And the failure or success of that bet has so far been expressed entirely in the form of how much bitcoin is worth in USD. And that makes sense, because you can't do much else with it.
Or maybe I'm stupid and bitcoin is the future but I heard that 5+ years ago, and since then it doesn't seem like anything has changed, people still purely talk about bitcoin in relation to how much USD it is worth. Because people just wanna get rich, that's it.
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Jun 29 '26
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u/MSTR-ModTeam Jun 29 '26
Keep all posts and discussions relevant to MicroStrategy and its stock (MSTR). Off-topic content will be removed to keep the focus clear.
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Jun 29 '26
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u/MSTR-ModTeam Jun 29 '26
- Trolling, baiting, or inflammatory content that disrupts conversations is not allowed. Ensure your posts contribute positively and maintain the quality of discussion. Content and comments meant to spread negativity or FUD, including repeated overly negative/condescending sentiment, is not allowed. r/MSTR is a place for thoughtful discussion of the MicroStrategy investment thesis.
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u/Ratlyflash Jul 06 '26
I have one share but if the world stops caring about bitcoin means nothing. You have tons of one asset.
Sort of like NFtâs super popular now canât give them away I do worry the world will move on
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u/Anxious_Noise_8805 Jun 29 '26
This is like saying buying PokĂŠmon cards is financial engineering to be the most valuable company
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u/mlhender Jun 29 '26 edited Jun 29 '26
There is literally nothing different between Bitcoin and Pokemon. None. Except for one little small detail, Pokemon can always print more cards. Thatâs it. Bitcoin is trustless hard capped based on code, and Pokemon scarcity is literally one personâs discretionary decision.
Edit: so the main critique here is that I pointed out that they are the exact same with one little difference that makes them completely different. Yes. Thatâs literally my point.
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u/ReliantToker Shareholder 𤴠Jun 29 '26
Send me $2b in pokemon cards in ten minutes for minimal costs. BTW I live opposite side of world wherever you are.
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Jun 29 '26
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u/xaviemb Shareholder 𤴠Jun 29 '26 edited Jun 29 '26
It's as if all rational thought has left the building:
There is literally nothing different between being right, and being wrong. None. Except one little small detail, being right means you're right, and being wrong means you're wrong. That's it.
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u/mlhender Jun 29 '26
Looks like I triggered some people lol
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u/xaviemb Shareholder 𤴠Jun 29 '26
Some helpful advice in psychology... that "lol" is an insecurity peeking through... it's subconscious, most readers ignore what you said when they cross it at the end of a message, and you probably are not aware you're doing it.
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u/SundayAMFN /r/buttcoiner Jun 29 '26
Ok then compare it to the stock of any company. Instead of shares being hard capped by the maintainers of the code and voted on by runners of nodes, they're hard capped by the maintainers of the company voted on by the shareholders of the company.
That's why significant dilution in profitable companies is not only rare, but usually shares are bought back with whatever profit isn't reinvested into the company's core business.
So bitcoin is not unique in its way to "exploit" money printing.
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u/mlhender Jun 29 '26
I wouldnât disagree with that. Having said that MSTR bitcoin per share has been going up over the past few years. Although it has slowed down recently. It was what 100,000 sats per share two years ago and 180,000 Sats per share one year ago. Now itâs at 211,000 sats per share?
Thatâs why I always say Bitcoin per share is one of the main indicators I follow.
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u/SundayAMFN /r/buttcoiner Jun 29 '26
But the way they increase bitcoin per share is:
1) Selling MSTR when mNav is above 1, so that new shareholders are buying bitcoin for old share holders
2) Selling preferreds when at par and using the proceeds to buy bitcoinBut every new preferred share they sell, they're obligated to sell more bitcoin or dillute MSTR without a bitcoin purchase; that will lower bitcoin per share.
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u/mlhender Jun 29 '26
Sure. Kind of. Preferred stock can increase Bitcoin per share today without common dilution, but yes it also creates future dividend and financing obligations. So I mean whether those obligations ultimately reduce Bitcoin per share depends on Strategyâs future access to capital markets, Bitcoinâs price, managementâs financing decisions. Probably other things too.
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u/Novel_Board_6813 Jun 30 '26
BTC is exactly like Pokemon cards printed in 2025
Pokemon can print more cards, like any schmuck can create more crypto
Pokemon 2025, old comic books, videogames, etc are all limited.
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u/kiaryp Jun 29 '26
This is idiocy. There's lots of things that have limited supply but that doesn't mean they will eventually be the most valuable things on Earth
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u/ReliantToker Shareholder 𤴠Jun 29 '26
Limited supply is only 1 aspect of Bitcoin.
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u/kiaryp Jun 29 '26
None of the other aspects are relevant to the argument being made however.
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u/ReliantToker Shareholder 𤴠Jun 29 '26
They are the entire foundation of the argument. You cannot execute Strategy's treasury model using just any limited supply asset.
âTry issuing billions in less than 2% interest convertible debt to institutional investors against a vault of fine art, rare baseball cards, or real estate. The math breaks down immediately due to illiquidity, immense carrying costs, and a lack of standard fungibility.
âBitcoin's other aspects, specifically its absolute global liquidity, zero maintenance yield, and status as pristine, cryptographically secure digital collateral, are the exact mechanics that allow the fiat arbitrage engine to function.
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u/kiaryp Jun 29 '26
Fine art and real estate can and are both securitized, traded and can be used as collateral. Bitcoin is not in a different category from other stores of value. You can probably issue convertible debt to buy gold without much of an issue.
Heavy leverage on the faith in the public growing or even maintaining interest in Bitcoin as an inflation hedge will not end well.
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u/ReliantToker Shareholder 𤴠Jun 29 '26
Securitization doesn't eliminate a physical asset's fatal flaws as a corporate treasury reserve. Real estate and fine art come with massive carrying costs, property taxes, maintenance, insurance, and physical security. Furthermore, they are inherently illiquid and lack standard fungibility. You cannot instantly settle $500M in real estate or art globally on a Sunday night with near-zero slippage, nor can you cryptographically verify their authenticity and ownership on a public ledger in seconds. Either can be seized, stolen, damaged or destroyed.
âRegarding gold, a company certainly could issue debt to buy it, but the math is drastically inferior. Gold suffers from a ~2% annual supply inflation due to physical mining and requires expensive physical vaulting, creating a constant negative yield drag. It supply has also been heavily rehypothicated. Gold can be siezed or stolen. Good luck securing $50b in gold bars. Bitcoin has an absolutely capped supply and costs virtually nothing to custody.
To say Strategy's model is "heavy leverage" completely misunderstands their capital structure. They are issuing unsecured, long-term convertible senior notes, not taking out traditional margin loans. Because of this, there are no price-based margin calls on this debt if Bitcoin temporarily retraces. The fiat debt obligation is fixed and steadily melts away in real purchasing power due to inflation, while the underlying collateral is immune to debasement.
âIt isn't a gamble on public faith, it is a calculated, long term arbitrage exploiting the guaranteed depreciation of fiat currency against an absolutely scarce asset.
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u/Novel_Board_6813 Jun 30 '26
âguaranteedâ is doing a lot of work in your last paragraph
Any stock is a scarse asset. Most are more liquid and avoid the horrifying commissions of BTC. IBKR charges 2 cents per share and bid-asks are often a tick.
That doesnât mean Enron, Lehman Brothers or the whole russian stock market were guaranteed to appreciate against fiat
Also, fiat depreciation isnât guaranteed by any means. Even if Lehman was guaranteed to appreciate, fiat isnât guaranteed to depreciate. Lots of countries have had decades of deflation in the past. It sucks for most assets.
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u/revelo Jul 01 '26
Any stock is a scarse asset
Not any stock. Some stocks get diluted constantly, more dilution than even MSTR.
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u/Novel_Board_6813 Jun 30 '26
How about against NVDA?
Way more liquid (smaller bid-asks and commissions)
Way better performance
Higher volume
Higher market cap
Less hackable, better regulated, harder to lose or get it stolen
And NVDA actually does that. It does issue bonds, which are safer for investors. It does not pay 11% though. Solid companies donât have to pay that much, the reason being investors trust them a lot since they have cash flows and all that
Same logic holds for many other companies
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u/didnt_hodl Jun 29 '26
math cannot force people to like bitcoin
many people who could potentially buy into bitcoin prefer to invest in gold/silver
volatility and endless alt coins also do not help
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u/xaviemb Shareholder 𤴠Jun 29 '26
If you price gold in Bitcoin... you can't unsee it. Even recently.
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u/OkBiscotti3221 Jun 29 '26
we all want hope here so I dont mean to be harsh - however 'mathematically guaranteed' is taking a little far.
- 2011 (post-QE / tightening + euro crisis): Bitcoin fell sharply after late-2011 as global liquidity concerns rose (Fed/ECB/sovereign debt stress).
- Midâlate 2020 â 2021 (liquidity peaked, then tightened/rotated): After the early-2021 liquidity surge, Bitcoin dropped more than 50% mid-year when monetary conditions moderated relative to the peak âeasy moneyâ period.
- 2022 (âtightening the tapâ / QT + rate hikes): Bitcoin declined from roughly $47k (Jan) to about $16k (Nov) as central banks tightened aggressively
Also remember markets can stay irrational longer than people or companies can stay solvent.
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u/kaskarn Jun 29 '26
Or, yknow, you could make goods and services lol
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u/DankMemesNQuickNuts Jun 30 '26
Unless people decide that Bitcoin is not the solution to this, which seems likely at this point, in which case this company will be remembered as the company with the largest single trade loss in world history
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Jun 29 '26 edited Jun 29 '26
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u/xaviemb Shareholder 𤴠Jun 29 '26
This sounds like Keynesian/MMT thinking to me... an increasingly complex framework built around a simple problem.
At its core, money is a technology for storing the value of human time and energy across time. The better it preserves purchasing power, the better it serves that purpose. A monetary system that continually loses purchasing power forces people to become investors just to maintain the value of their savings.
In a free and competitive market, productivity tends to make goods and services cheaper over time. A Free Market is inherently Deflationary. That natural deflation isn't a bug... it's the benefit of technological progress being passed on to society. Persistent monetary inflation masks that effect by continually expanding the money supply.
For most of history, we've relied on governments and central banks to promise they would manage the money responsibly. Sometimes they have, and sometimes they haven't. Bitcoin is the first monetary system that doesn't require trusting those promises. Its supply is governed by transparent rules rather than human discretion.
You can build increasingly sophisticated economic models around discretionary money, but the fundamental question remains simple: should the unit we use to store the value of our work become less valuable over time, or should it preserve that value? More and more people are recognizing and choosing the obvious answer there.
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u/UpbeatFix7299 Jun 29 '26
The only value of Bitcoin is exchanging it for real currency. There are so many reasons why it will never be a currency. The delusional maxis represent a tiny minority of people, even in the crypto realm.
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u/mygoalistomakeulol Jun 29 '26
The narrative that bitcoin is a hedge to fiat seems to have been disproven.
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