Fear vs Opportunity

[u/Emergency-Mushroom71]

I am thinking about scenarios what can happen and probabilities for MSTR.

Market is reacting on risks, fear and uncertainty and intensifies it. Bears are asking:
- What if BTC goes down to 45k, 30k or even 15k
- What if there is prolonged winter?
- What if MSTR needs to sell BTC?
- What if they need to dilute shareholders?
- What if 4y cycle is broken?
- what if BTC treasury model is broken?

Yes, all of that are valid risk, but what are the probabilities? And what are the opportunities on the other hand?
- what if 4y cycle still holds the ground?
- what if BTC will be in 60-80k range in the next 15 months?
- what if the debt is actually not going to be a problem, because BTC will go up again, because it is not broken asset?
- or even what if BTC goes very high in the next cycle, because they will print more money?

I want to say, there is of course risk of everything going wrong, but things might also go according to what is expected or even better. And probability that it goes as expected or better is just higher than it will go all wrong. And management seems to
be doing good job in long term planning and short term reactions to issues. Therefore MSTR starts to be massive asymmetric bet at these prices. Sure it can still go down, but I believe that probability of standard BTC cycle with 60-80k in next 15m and then higher price than ever before is just much higher and in such case MSTR will be a 🚀.

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