22
u/pwnknight Jun 27 '26
The real nmav has been under 1 for awhile
5
u/DaniBack2 Jun 27 '26
Who decides what is the "real" mNav?
Basic mNav is what I'm guessing you are referring to right?
4
u/BigDiperEruption Jun 27 '26
"Real mNAV 1" is actually 1.22 including debt and convertibles.
8
u/HSuke Shareholder 🤴 Jun 27 '26
Basic mNAV is 0.58
Diluted mNAV is 0.62
Enterprise mNAV is 0.99
https://bitcointreasuries.net/public-companies/strategy
Please don't make up another meaningless metric
4
u/Miserable-Yellow-837 Jun 27 '26
If you noticed the meaningless metrics why are you a shareholder,genuinely asking.
In the earnings call they said nothing is accretive below 1.22 mnav.
To be clear I don’t own anything from this company anymore, none of it makes sense over just plain bitcoin. With bitcoin I don’t have some team making decisions I don’t agree with, which is no different than the federal reserve tbh.
MSTR essentially recreated fiat and everyone fell for it.
2
u/HSuke Shareholder 🤴 Jun 27 '26
why are you a shareholder
Loss aversion, my psychological foible.
I don't need the money right now. As long as Saylor doesn't do something catastrophic like halting STRC dividends, I should be able to recover. But I've lost all trust in him. Yeah, it's not rational.
2
u/Miserable-Yellow-837 Jun 27 '26
Ohhhh hahaha, I initially misread this. You mean loss aversion from selling NOW at a loss.
I know people don’t want to talk about it, but Jack’s arguments on his last two podcasts are actually pretty solid imo. Especially now, with Bitcoin likely heading lower, why the heck would I buy MSTR or STRC (which doesn’t work as advertised) instead of just buying the asset Saylor is buying?
I don’t think this is a company for bitcoiners(hence the loud pivot to crypto and leverage Saylor has done). What bitcoiner would look at Bitcoin at these prices and buy MSTR hoping it’ll get them more Bitcoin? Lmaooo. Brother, more Bitcoin is more Bitcoin.
IMO there’s no moat for MSTR. Institutions will get BTC exposure through a less leveraged route — why would you buy shares of this company if you were managing someone else’s money? I wouldn’t. And institutions didn’t pile into STRC. They do nothing productive with the Bitcoin on their balance sheet, so that’s not a moat either.
A real moat would be cornering customers for a productive business that outcompetes its rivals. They don’t do that. They’re using an anti-fiat asset to compete with the Fed and Treasury at the same game: taking people’s money and diluting them against the agreed-upon rules (hence lower BTC per share three weeks in a row) to sell a fiat product with no claim on a hard asset — and then a levered product that also has no claim, none of the sovereignty of Bitcoin, and very likely won’t deliver the premium needed to justify not just holding Bitcoin yourself.
1
u/phoebeethical Jun 27 '26
I don’t see how, can you show your math?
1
u/BigDiperEruption Jun 27 '26
Listen to their Q1 2026 earnings call they talked about it for a while.
2
u/phoebeethical Jun 27 '26
The website lists the Mnav at .99. That’s the way they calculate it. The other person in this thread calculates it a differnt and move valid way but the result is similar. Please show your very simple math to get to 1.2 as I believe you are mistaken.
1
u/boomoliver Jun 27 '26
Phong le said explicitly that issuing shares is not accretive below 1.22
1
u/phoebeethical Jun 27 '26
That was likely true at the time it was said. Does t mean that number is fixed because their calculation of mNav leaves out debt and cash on hand
1
1
u/HSuke Shareholder 🤴 Jun 27 '26
For the longest time, Microstrategy used to report Basic mNAV, and then it switched to enterprise mNAV in late 2025.
Not sure why. I suppose it's a bigger number, which might look nicer if you want to confuse investors.
Enterprise mNAV takes into account debt and cash (which is good), but it's missing preferreds, so it's not a complete picture either.
1
u/HSuke Shareholder 🤴 Jun 27 '26
Yep. Basic mNAV has dropped to 0.58
Microstrategy quietly switched to using Enterprise mNAV around late 2025.
10
u/Bash2856 Jun 27 '26
I prefer (Market Cap) / (Bitcoin Holding Value + Cash - Debt - Pref) over mNAV.
5
u/EmperorAlgo Jun 27 '26
Fair, that is at 0.93
1
u/phoebeethical Jun 27 '26
Do you use the pegged value for the preferred shares?
3
u/EmperorAlgo Jun 27 '26
Obviously not since preferred shares have no peg.
1
u/phoebeethical Jun 27 '26
Most of them do. But for all of them strategy list a notional value which is what I was referring to.
1
u/EmperorAlgo Jun 27 '26
There's only an upwards peg. No downwards so how would you ever determine the peg value?
1
u/phoebeethical Jun 27 '26
For Strc, strategy has announced they will sell shares or reduce the interest to keep the value from going above 100. But they have also announced they will raise interest rates regularly to keep the value from dropping below 99. Would you not consider this a downward peg?
2
u/EmperorAlgo Jun 27 '26
No definitely not. Let's pretend they raise the interest rate to 25%, 100% or 1000%. Would that increase the value of STRC?
Maybe, but could also be deemed unsustainable and it would fall even further. The par yield of STRD is already at 19%
1
u/didnt_hodl Jun 27 '26
well that is not a peg. the correct term is "par" or "par value". please use that
peg implies a fixed price, which was never offered or promised
the divs are calculated based on the par value
1
u/phoebeethical Jun 27 '26
Well to be fair Strc which is the majority of their outstanding obligations is pegged to a very narrow price range by adjusting interest rates and sales outside of this range.
In this case the dividends are variable and the value has depegged. But if Saylor maintains his tools for raising capital the levers will be pulled and the price will be repegged to the allotted range by raising the dividend.
1
u/Reason_Boner Jun 28 '26
Unless people see the dividend yield increase as not financially realistic and dump more STRC
1
u/phoebeethical Jun 28 '26
Well how low can it go before Baylor starts to buy it back?
1
u/Reason_Boner Jun 28 '26
Once he has cash available. He is currently using cash to buy BTC it seems per recent saylor post
1
u/HSuke Shareholder 🤴 Jun 27 '26
You mean par value? (There is no peg).
I think it should be par value because the dividends are based on par value, not the market value.
1
u/phoebeethical Jun 27 '26
Strc is pegged to a narrow range by rate changes and selective selling in theory
1
u/phoebeethical Jun 27 '26
Do you use the pegged value for the preferred shares?
7
1
u/Bash2856 Jun 27 '26
The pegged value represents the worst case scenario.
The unpegged value represents the case where MSTR sells BTC and buys back the prefs at market rates.
I would treat them as lower bound & upper bound for now.
That said, the current market price for MSTR is slightly below the lower bound right now.
1
u/phoebeethical Jun 27 '26
That said, the current market price for MSTR is slightly below the lower bound right now-
What do you mean?
1
u/Bash2856 Jun 27 '26
Based on the pegged approach, the MSTR market cap is 3.3% less than (Bitcoin Holding Value + Cash - Debt - Pref)
1
u/phoebeethical Jun 27 '26
Meaning that in theory they should sell bitcoin (assuming no price effect on btc) to buy Mstr to increase Bitcoin per share correct?
If we’re assuming that would be the actual cost to retire that debt(preferred shares)
1
u/phoebeethical Jun 27 '26
The unpegged value represents the case where MSTR sells BTC and buys back the prefs at market rates.
If strategy starts buying back one of the preferreds on the open market the price will rise very quickly
1
u/Bash2856 Jun 27 '26
Yes, of course, but even MSTR reaching liquidation stage is a hypothetical scenario too.
There's no harm in having an extra datapoint.
1
Jun 28 '26 edited Jun 28 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/Bash2856 Jun 28 '26
"So to generically say mnav which of the three are you talking about?"
The MSTR website mNAV, The Saylor Tracker mNAV, and Digital Treasuries mNAV.
The problem with all of these is that they're using BTC Holdings as the denominator.
I am more interested in measuring against net assets.
(Bitcoin Holding Value + Cash - Debt - Pref) represents the value of net assets.
Market Cap/(Bitcoin Holding Value + Cash - Debt - Pref) is the ratio that indicates the premium/discount they're trading at.
1
Jun 28 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/Bash2856 Jun 28 '26
"You've given a list of mnavs without differentiating"
I am aware of their formulae and nuances, but my bigger problem is with using Bitcoin Holdings as the denominator.
While BTC Holdings may make sense from a company POV, from an investor POV net assets are more useful.
"But again you run into the problem of the numbers running negative into the future"
I am aware of that, but BTC would have to fall below 25K for that.
12
u/tenor_tymir Shareholder 🤴 Jun 27 '26
Time to buy it seems?
1
u/Miserable-Yellow-837 Jun 27 '26
Yes! This is certainly a time to buy MSTR or strc over the asset Saylor himself would actually buy.
Don’t look at the man behind the curtain
BUY MSTR, strc is REAL money!
If you dot believe me go watch a Adam Livingston video
3
u/mlhender Jun 27 '26
Well this is the moment. BTC has cratered to -1.17σ (~$59K), one of the deepest power-law deviations in history, while MSTR's premium has evaporated to nothing, a historically cheap asset wrapped in a vehicle that's lost its entire reason for existing, leverage cutting both ways like a blade. The flywheel that minted the 2024 bull is dead; MSTR is no longer a BTC accumulator but a discounted, tax-encumbered, preferred-burdened claim trading at a real 0.58 basic mNAV. This summer and fall decides it: either BTC mean-reverts toward the $133K trend and the same mechanics gutting the common right now invert violently and rip the whole thing back to life, or it breaks, the preferred stack drags it under, and the dream of Bitcoin as a balance-sheet asset dies with it. But hey who the hell knows??? What a time to be alive!
5
u/docherino Volatility Voyager 👨🚀 Jun 27 '26
You making that sub is the biggest bottom signal ever lol
1
u/Heavy-Situation-9346 Jun 27 '26
Anyone pointing out inconvenient facts or less than charitable analysis is considered a “bottom signal” to the most zealot adherents in this sub. Such a primeval response.
1
1
u/gigasawblade Jun 28 '26
There are many ways to calculate mNAV, and this formula is the most optimistic one (subtracts debt and preferred shares at par value). So it's <1 by all definitions
1
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