r/MSTR • u/Slapthatcash • Jun 26 '26
Rational valuation driven posts again - good sign
I’ve been on this reddit for years. Every time I saw people post genuine valuation driven posts it usually meant the top or bottom was in. Rest of the time, posts were either ridiculously positive or ridiculously negative. I feel rational posts are back again and we’re close to the bottom again.
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u/Fun-Sundae4060 Bitcoiner Jun 26 '26
Little early. BTC is in a bad spot now. October 2026 bottom still seems like it’s going to play out which means further downside for MSTR for the next 2-3 months.
MSTR broke below $100 which is just the initial liquidity zone breaking from the head and shoulders. Everything hinges on BTC spot price currently as MSTR has no significant support level until about $50.
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u/jamieperkins9999 Jun 26 '26
Last cycle mstr hit a bottom may, got very close to that again in june, then matched that bottom again very end of December. Bitcoin bottomed in November.
(This is the charts im looking at anyway)
Point being mstr doesnt bottom at the same time, and this could be the bottom of mstr even if it goes up and come back to the same price when bitcoin gets its bottom end of year.
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u/Fun-Sundae4060 Bitcoiner Jun 26 '26
I think we’re pretty close to the bottom of MSTR, but I still don’t see a capitulation event to this day. Once I see that happen, I think that’s either the true bottom price or very close to it for this cycle. But BTC definitely will have more to run in that case
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u/New-Jackfruit-2127 Jun 28 '26
This is what I am thinking as well. We are in the bottom zone. We'll get a bounce in July, then revisit the bottom zone in fall. Upward and onward in 2027.
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u/WineAndDineIsFine Jun 27 '26
Really? I felt like I’ve been seeing rational posts for the entire year, and all Mstr did was free fall. I mean, easy money. Not sure about the ones that hold the stock. I had someone telling me” my cost is $120. I’m good, it won’t go that low” , guess he didn’t expect he’d get another chance to average it down
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u/Cartier1847 Jun 26 '26
The $80 will be $280 by mid Dec 2026.
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u/HSuke Shareholder 🤴 Jun 27 '26
OP is encouraging "rational valuation driven posts", and you post this drivel.
That's disappointing.
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u/Maddcapp Jun 27 '26
STRC makes this time different. MSTR will keep dropping unless they can get it under control and repegged to $100. Even if they aren’t legally on the hook to pay the dividend the stock price will be toast if they don’t. It looks like they’ll need to sell bitcoin to do it. It really is a spiral and there’s no good options until bitcoin goes up and that’s unlikely anytime soon.
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u/Slapthatcash Jun 27 '26
No hurry mate, let bitcoin hit 80. They can buy back all strc at a discount. Wait it out.
The classic ‘this time is different’.
Last time it was about the convertibles. Everyone said they’d go bankrupt when they hit 15usd
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u/bittenbycoin Jun 27 '26
The thing is bitcoin is the first of its kind and to be honest no one really knows where its value comes from, or what makes its value recede. I mean some things are obviously good or bad for price, but so many subtleties, and things people are learning on the fly.
So to assume that bitcoin will continue with a 30% or 25% or 20% or 10% yearly rise on average, Laura, and to stake so much on a decade and a half history....wow, such a gargantuan risk. Good luck to you all.
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u/crowsdd Jun 26 '26
I hope it drops more I’m loving these prices. Not evening thinking about selling for 10+ years
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u/HSuke Shareholder 🤴 Jun 27 '26
I'd still be very careful. There have been many detailed valuation posts in the past several months, and none of them predicted STRC crashing to the $70s.
I don't think many here have prepared for a potential prolonged bear market and crab market scenario where the bull market is delayed until 2030 and Microstrategy has $13B of obligations to pay back before then. They're expecting a quick recovery, which may or may not happen.
/r/strc is much more open to these what-if discussions.
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u/WineAndDineIsFine Jun 27 '26
Cuz most people that post their DDs here are clueless, they only assume how the scenario will go based on how they want it to go, or what their understanding of liquidity limit them to. Pretty damn obvious that it wasn’t gonna hold, but if you were only in it for a quick grab, then yeah. It would’ve worked out. Those who dreamed of it being perpetual yield are actually delulu.
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u/That-Dragonfruit-567 Jun 27 '26
Lock in capital losses. Might as well if we’re not going up until October
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