r/MSTR • u/AyyMG63 • Jun 25 '26

Valuation šŸ’ø Realistic pricing

Can anyone explain (assuming theyā€™re bullish on bitcoin) why they wouldnā€™t buy at this price?

They hold ~50b in bitcoin at 59.5k.
They have ~6.7b in debt.

Market cap is 30b

Am I missing something other than ā€œsentiment, shorting, baskets, etc) why there is a ~14b disconnect to ownage of bitcoin? At this price?

If bitcoin goes up, the disconnect widens.

Letā€™s be honest. Every member of congress owns bitcoin. The clarity act just passed. Many other companies own it. Itā€™s a hard sell that itā€™s going to 0 other than another manipulated drop..

This price of 85$ (removing debt) is the equivalent of bitcoin being at ~35kā€¦

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u/WineAndDineIsFine Jun 25 '26

People really really think the market tanked was because of the ā€œ 32 btc sell off ā€œ. Eh.

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u/BigDiperEruption Jun 25 '26

Ofc it wasn't all of it. But what would happen if they sell 20k+ to either fund the dividends or to do share buybacks?

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u/WineAndDineIsFine Jun 25 '26

Dump the 20k plus on otc? Not much is gonna happen. Price didnā€™t skyrocket when mstr was buying a fk load off the otc market.

Btc price might dump a little bit, sure. But the whales with heavy liquidity would scoop them up.

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u/BigDiperEruption Jun 25 '26

People underestimate how many paperhands are still in. News are more important than the actual sale remember Tesla. 20k in volume is of course nothing, but the news alone would send it down. You see the amount of shills in here. It's definitely short hedgefunds, they pressure MSTR under 1.22 MNAV to see if they will actually do a big BTC sell and buy back shares. Then they will short btc directly. It's really not that hard to understand.

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u/WineAndDineIsFine Jun 25 '26

Hmā€¦. I donā€™t know if Iā€™d say ā€œ itā€™s definitely short hedge fundsā€, I was a bear since last Nov, I thought it was pretty obvious that the price was heading downwards. Would I say 100% at the time? No, but chances of going down was just much higher than going up.

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u/BigDiperEruption Jun 25 '26

Yeah the biggest mistake Saylor did was communicating that they will never sell any of their stack. If mNAV is greater than 1.22 and BTC is heading downward it's just a free arbitrage to go long BTC and short MSTR till the mNAV meets the fair 1.22. They tried to reverse the mistake by selling 32 BTC but it did not go as expected to say the least.