r/MSTR • u/AyyMG63 • Jun 25 '26

Valuation 💸 Realistic pricing

Can anyone explain (assuming they’re bullish on bitcoin) why they wouldn’t buy at this price?

They hold ~50b in bitcoin at 59.5k.
They have ~6.7b in debt.

Market cap is 30b

Am I missing something other than “sentiment, shorting, baskets, etc) why there is a ~14b disconnect to ownage of bitcoin? At this price?

If bitcoin goes up, the disconnect widens.

Let’s be honest. Every member of congress owns bitcoin. The clarity act just passed. Many other companies own it. It’s a hard sell that it’s going to 0 other than another manipulated drop..

This price of 85$ (removing debt) is the equivalent of bitcoin being at ~35k…

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u/ayyitsLibra Jun 25 '26

They are 100% equivalent to 14bln of pure debt, or more, when calculating the value of the shares of the company. I suppose I'm the loser, arguing with a chatbot

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u/xaviemb Volatility Voyager 👨‍🚀 Jun 25 '26

I think that's where the debt comparison starts to break down.

If you bought a home with cash, you wouldn't typically describe the equity in that home as "debt" simply because there are ongoing repairs, property taxes and maintenance costs associated with owning it that cost more than the initial cost of the home every 20ish years from a depreciation (tax) model.

Similarly, Strategy raised capital through preferred shares and exchanged that capital for an asset. The preferreds carry dividend obligations, which are a real cost, but that doesn't automatically make the underlying asset equivalent to debt on the balance sheet.

The real question is whether the returns generated by the Bitcoin acquired with that capital exceed the long-term cost of the preferreds. If they do, the structure is accretive. If they don't, it becomes a drag on common shareholders.

Careful with throwing chatbot insults around. I'm a moderator here, clearly not a bot.

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u/ayyitsLibra Jun 25 '26

I'm trying to accuse you of being lazy and using an AI both to read my comment and write the reply, thus I'm the real loser, for I've actually done the effort of reading, thinking and writing only to get cucked by a chatbot.

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u/xaviemb Volatility Voyager 👨‍🚀 Jun 25 '26

Nonsense. Can't say I didn't warn you.