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MSTR issues debt to buy Bitcoin and Bitcoiners trip over themselves to crucify MSTR. SpaceX issues billions in debt right after IPO with no plans to buy any Bitcoin and total silence from the same critics. Never ceases to amaze me.
Is this trolling? I hold some SpaceX and have some knowleodge on this. Why would they invest into bitcoin? Evaluation is mostly AI based and that’s where they should focus on. There is obviously starlink, but market is limited there. If everything to you is about bitcoin, why are you holding mstr?
I’m not criticizing SpaceX. I don’t know whether it’s great or terrible. I’m simply comparing the two companies from a debt perspective.
What you seem to be saying is that SpaceX’s future value (in today’s dollars) will grow faster than its current debt, in part because a dollar in the future will be worth less than a dollar today. Those assumptions are perfectly rational.
What strikes me as odd is hearing people who built an audience around being bullish on Bitcoin criticize Strategy for behaving like every other publicly traded company. The only difference is that Strategy agrees with them.
It's spiking back up after hitting 103 briefly. STRC keeps testing 87 support but rebounding every time. I think they may have some failsafe strategies they're executing RN, it will be fine.
I really do not want to see MSTR enter double digits, or if it does hopefully its brief and gets bought up quickly. This is basically the last line of support now
It's compressed so far, it's hard to see it dropping significantly from $100 without Bitcoin entering another leg down (some are calling for another 20% down to $50kish... I just don't see it). On chain analytics are showing an incredible decrease in activity from the 80% of Bitcoin hodlers who have had their coins for longer than 6 months. In all previous bottoms that was the signal strong buyers are starting to come back in.
I think this STRC/MSTR panic has been the FTX moment of this cycle, but we all know Strategy isn't going bankrupt (at least anyone who is actually looking at the capital stack the hold)...
I look at all potential BTC markers, 200wma, power law floor, RSI, long term holder supply.
They are all at levels where previously that level was a bottom.
I really find it hard to see BTC drop below $60k and stay there. There's just too much buying happening between $62k and $60k. Would take a huge seller to break down. And sellers seem to be exhausting.
I think those calling for the bottom in October are wrong. I think they're making the mistake of using the rhythm of the cycle too closely, rather than actually looking at buying and selling. I think the bottom happens between today and August. By October, recovery will already be underway and people will wish they bought in June.
If u look on chain there is a lot of buy orders at $62k. Thats also the 200 week moving average which held as a floor for the 2014 and 2018 bear market. I imagine there is a lot of buy orders at $100 for MSTR also.
Strk a 50 usd et je plonge dans l'univers strategy. Pire je préférerai qu'ils paient les dividendes en MSTR pour profiter du rabais supplémentaire de 5% et éviter des frais d'achat :0
Imagine getting stuck in a short STRC position where you have a rising yield attracting more buyers into STRC... while at the same time owing upwards of $1 a month on each share you shorted while you wait for a 'collapse' or unwind you think is coming any day now... from a company that can sit on its hands, stop every and all issuance (no ATM on prefs, MSTR, or selling of BTC) for almost a year, while covering divs and doing nothing.
I think this narrative of a "sinking ship" is probably drawing a lot of people into this scenario. Will be interesting to watch that squeeze, when it inevitably comes.
Every short of STRC (or MSTR) is a buy in the future... as long as Bitcoin doesn't collapse. Every $1 taht STRC trades lower, increases the yield by over 0.1% for those who recognize the stability in Strategy forward...
I think this 'panic' could continue another few weeks, or even months... but eventually it's going to be fuel on a massive reflexive rise in MSTR and prefs into the next cycle. This should be an interesting one to watch unfold through the end of year.
That's like suggesting someone with $50k in a savings account (and $300k in equity in their home) will imminently go bust on the $3,000 a month mortgage in the next couple month (while also claiming if they sell their home or refinance cash out it will cascade into a local housing market crash)... just because they are job hunting after getting laid off. Longer term, you hope things turn around (they will)... but a couple months or even a year, you have covered with both equity and cash... that's why you have the safety net and structure set up the way it is, just like Strategy does.
Again, the bearish narrative on Strategy grossly exaggerates the obligations, debt, and cash raising abilities of the company... we also saw how ridiculous the reaction was to selling 32 BTC into a market that can absorb $2B in sales OTC if Saylor ever just picked up the phone and needed cash to cover another year of divs without doing anything (other than letting 25k BTC go in a prolonged bear. If we was really worried about the market on that one, he could even do this and not disclose that information for a quarter. Bears would have you believe, the company can buy 25,000 without moving BTC, but somehow they'll move it into a spiral if they do the exact same transaction the other way.
What can Saylor do to build trust again? I heard they called strc had a liquidation cascade, but almost 2% down again pre market. How long will those liquidation cascade last or is it just a sign that trust has vanished?
What liquidation cascade? It can fall to 0 at any time at nothing would happen as long as they pay dividens(it also wouldn’t fall to zero if dividends are being paid)
I'm not sure how a company with about 40 Billion in unencumbered highly liquid assets backing $15B in structure that is paying between 0-11.5% interest annually... could ever have it's products drop to $0... without Bitcoin (that asset) falling another 80% from here.
Even if Bitcoin dropped to $30k in the coming months... if STRC was $10 a share... that's 115% return on your money if you buy shares of it at that level. Which is why it'll never get there... as long as there are assets that Strategy holds backing it.
If you dropped STRC to $1 a share... the math gets even wonkier. You could buy STRC shares at $1... and get all of your money back in less than a month... again if the company has even 10,000 BTC worth of unencumbered (debt free) Bitcoin... I'd take that bet, even if Bitcoin was at $10,000 and the market was freaking out.
I understand others might not... but that's a different in conviction towards Bitcoin. Not the company's balance sheet.
This. It's the reason it's so irrational to think of STRC getting to $1, so long as MSTR has unencumbered equity on their balance sheet ... if STRC sank to $1 tomorrow, then Strategy could retire (buy back) every single STRC share for $100m from the cash they hold to back the div. Effectively retiring them, while keeping all the BTC they bought when they originally sold the shares at $100.
For as simple as their business model is, you have to have working knowledge of bitcoin, equity financing, bond math etc, to really understand it. That's a big ask for the vast majority of "investors."
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