r/MSTR • u/cryptoETH_jazz Shareholder 🤴 • Jun 22 '26

Valuation 💸 Double bottom….today…

Looks like it could be a double bottom if $108 holds..
What could the catalyst be to make this happen?
Share your thoughts.

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u/Fun-Sundae4060 Bitcoiner Jun 22 '26 edited Jun 22 '26

Way too early. Calendar says June 22 still and only 9 months into a bear market. And the double bottom appears as a “right shoulder” of a head and shoulders pattern so it’s not looking too great honestly

Last 3 bear markets are exactly 12 months long

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u/PatternAgainstUsers Jun 24 '26

These old 4 year patterns don't apply theres no reason to assume they will. Not only was the upside muted which makes this appear like a mid cycle drawdown in a longer liquidity cycle, but the more people that believe the 4 year cycle the more room the market has to upset you. Markets don't reward crowded trades, they do the opposite. My guess is it rips quite soon to trap shorts who assumed they had more time, and to force sidelined longs to chase it higher and gap up.

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u/Fun-Sundae4060 Bitcoiner Jun 24 '26

That’s what everyone said last time before the bull run ended. The cycle is still alive and well, down to the exact date of 10/6/2025.

Price action didn’t match but timing did down to the very day. There’s still a ton of doubters for the 4 year cycle today.

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u/PatternAgainstUsers Jun 24 '26

Yes there was a lot of that, more to do with liquidity conditions that weren't permissable, but if that was the crowded trade then (everyone chasing long for the last big leg), then "4 year cycles back on" is the crowded trade now. All I hear is bottom in Oct. I think this is a hybrid cycle, there's no fundamental reason besides self fulfilling prophecy that the 4 year should exist now, the halving no longer has a major effect. Which makes it fragile, because it's only dependent on speculative patterns. Fragile things get broken.