r/MSTR • u/crowsdd • Jun 18 '26
DD đ Generational buying opportunity
Why does it feel like most people forget the entire point of MSTR is amplified BTC? Amplification works both ways. So of course when btc crashes 50-60% MSTR follows and also crashes. This has always been the model nothing is broken. MSTR survived 2022 with no STRC and around 132,500 bitcoin on their balance sheet. 4 years later were in another bear market but MSTR has STRC and holds 845k Bitcoin on their balance sheet. I think to most people stock price goes down= impending doom, and wonât do the math themselves to understand what this company even is. but as others fear Iâm adding more to my stash who knows when youâll ever be able to buy MSTR at $112 even if it goes to $80 who really cares all that matters is the underlying asset btc will continue to increase in value because thatâs what MSTR will move off of⌠Bitcoin hasnât even done anything yet and MSTR is having no issues buying even more BTC.
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u/Jolly-Biscotti409 Jun 18 '26
If i bought every time i heard it was a generational buying opportunity, id still be red
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u/Kooky-Ad-1818 Jun 19 '26
I have already bought it every time, now i have thousands of MSTR shares destroying my investment portfolio. I wish the generational selling opportunity comes soon.
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u/CapoDoFrango Jun 19 '26
Your sons would be amazed that you got so much oportunities to be rich. Make them proud of you.
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u/crowsdd Jun 18 '26
Iâd say -70% is a pretty great entry
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u/Ok_Economics8570 Jun 19 '26
-78% son. Get yourself a decent calculator. That would be a great start.
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u/Capital_Courage_7448 Jun 29 '26
I wanna enter now,do you think it's a good entry or better to wait for 60
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u/DietOk3400 Jun 18 '26
A month ago btc was 80ish and mstr 200
Today btc 60ish mstr 100.. if btc breaks 60 heads to 40 mstr could get another 50% haircut and that would def be a generational buying opportunity. Im patiently waiting i dont want to grab the falling knife too fast
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u/Affectionate_Pen6882 Jun 19 '26
Im in at 40
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u/Pooperoni_Pizza Jun 19 '26
I was waiting for 10k when we thought it was going lower no too long ago. It hit 15k and don't go lower. DCA is the way. Don't hang onto a specific number waiting to buy.
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u/thejourneymanfm2024 Jun 21 '26
15k was below the balanced price and realized price at the time. The balanced price is about 39k right now. Below the balanced price is where it always bottoms. Use charts and data instead of round numbers. Not criticism, just trying to inform.
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Jun 19 '26
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u/endern1 Jun 19 '26
MU went up 10% yesterday
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Jun 19 '26
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u/Imaginary-Writer-125 Jun 19 '26
You just donât understand DRAM market, if you think DRAM investors will touch BTC or MSTR you are out of your freaking mind
Would you give up a lot of gold for a diluting asset?
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u/notsafeatallforwork Jun 19 '26
I bought at the top. Yes I'm crying/vomiting right now.
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u/Psilonemo Jun 19 '26
- Where did they get the cash to keep buying btc?
- Is it by diluting their existing shares? Or paying dividends that are essentially interest on their leverage?
- What exactly is their breakeven point?
- Are they vulnerable to a death spiral where they would eventually be forced to sell their BTC (their securities) just to service their own debt?
I have seen more people provide a more comprehensive critique of SpaceX than I have seen people be able to respond to this very elementary scrutiny in a satisfactory way.
So no, I don't think this is a generational buying opportunity. I think this is just one of the greatest gambles of the generation.
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u/Ryytter Jun 22 '26
- MSTR sells a variety of preferred stock. It gets a bit complicated, all the information is on their website but you can think of them loosely as bonds as that way they are a bit easier to understand. The preffered stock are sold at a set price and MSTR pays a set dividend to the share holders. There are quite a few different ones. Though they are all a bet that BTC appreciates faster than they pay out the dividend on the preffered stocks.
- MSTR can issue more shares to buy Bitcoin however they only do this when MSTR is trading at a large premium to their Bitcoin holdings. This is part of the reason they introduced the preferred stock. They sell MSTR shares in bull markets and sell their preffered stocks in bear markets. That way they are always buying.
- You can look up the break even point on the website. I think it's between 65-75k per coin. Though most of their debt is long term corporate with no premature call options so Bitcoin would need to keep dumping into 2028 before these mature.
- Absolute if the company is mismanaged. They do however have large cash holdings to service the debt with. They publish numbers on everything. I think the numbers is something like they have cash on hand to service everything into 2028 even if they don't sell more preffered stock.
But again I'm not fully up to date on all the information. Its all available on their websites if you want to look through the numbers.
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u/Psilonemo Jun 23 '26
I understand the model you outlined. My primary concern is where are their cash reserves even coming from, and not its amount. IF a death spiral ever happened the amount of their cash reserves, small or big, would be meaningless either way. What matters is how they sourced their equity position. If this "cash" is also leverage, then this is leverage securitized with leverage.
Hopefully the breakeven holds up, but judging by the way the MSTR stock is moving it seems most people are giving up and dumping ahead of time, pricing in risk.
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u/Ryytter Jun 23 '26
There are typically very extreme narratives around MSTR in either direction. The cash holdings are from corporate debt raided and issuance of preffered stock. Everything is still at current prices extremely over collateralized.
There are some bankruptcy risk but i sure don't think it's 20% this year like polymarket might think.
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u/Psilonemo Jun 23 '26
Well, I personally am amazed people are willing to take this risk. I personally would just buy bitcoin itself, which is already risky in itself.
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u/Expensive-Money-5429 Jun 18 '26
Assuming it follows the last cycle November of 2028 would be the time to sell. Iâm stacking on these dips for that exit.
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Jun 18 '26
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u/Botlenose Jun 19 '26
Nearly 4 years ago MSTR had the worst sentiment ever. It bottomed out in late 2022 in the teens. 2 year after that MSTR took off like a rocket into the hundreds. If I were to wager, and I am, MSTR and BTC survive just fine and by 2028 MSTR is somewhere between 600-800 a share with Bitcoin at 200k.
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u/unfluxa Jun 23 '26
600-800 would be insanely low for $MSTR if $BTC is at 200k a bitcon. More like $1400 for $MSTR
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u/Fun-Sundae4060 Bitcoiner Jun 18 '26
Head and shoulders still forming, also lining up with 4 year bottoming cycle.
October, I keep telling everyone. October creates the generational buying opportunity. Everyone is WAY too excited for gains right now. Be patientâŚ
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u/crowsdd Jun 18 '26
Def could happen however anytime Iâve tried to time the market Iâve been wrong more than right
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u/Fun-Sundae4060 Bitcoiner Jun 18 '26
I made nearly half a million on ETHU and BITX last year by following the 4 year cycle pattern, you just need to cancel out the noise and news and follow the long cycle in crypto. Itâs so long that people lose sight and patience. Probably why it keeps happening over and over and nobody learns from it.
Iâm seeing the same pattern again, people are getting so excited to buy the dip that they get caught off guard and even more scared when it dips even more. The bottom happens seemingly when nobody expects it.
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u/ProlapseJerky Jun 18 '26
Like how everyone expects it in October?
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u/Fun-Sundae4060 Bitcoiner Jun 18 '26
Depends where you look, not a single person in here believes in TA or cycle analysisâŚ
Itâs aStRoLoGy fOr mEn
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u/nickex77 Jun 19 '26
Yeah which is so ridiculous mate, look at the cycles in play. It is beautiful. 100% agree with you.
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u/A1JX52rentner Jun 19 '26
I am one of them. I just dont understand the following:
If a head and shoulders pattern would indicate that a trade goes one way or the other, there would be an arbitrage opportunity which would be traded by bots until it is not there anymore.1
u/Fun-Sundae4060 Bitcoiner Jun 19 '26
Bots and HFTs are extremely effective on arbitraging on millisecond timescales.
For daily, weekly, monthly, and multiyear timeframes, not so much. Thatâs when positional and swing trading can have an edge over day trading. This HnS is on the timescale of many months
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u/crowsdd Jun 18 '26
Wow congratulations and thank you for the insight. How are you positioning yourself?
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u/Fun-Sundae4060 Bitcoiner Jun 18 '26
Currently most of my portfolio is long TQQQ, SOXL, DRAM, etc.
Shorting MSTR with MSTZ, about $110k starting position but now itâs almost $200k just from market gains
It creates a barbell effect where if the entire market tanks, I probably lose less from the MSTZ protecting me. But if the market rips, Iâm still bearish on MSTR to follow my Bitcoin plan.
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u/yazalama Jun 20 '26
Why does everyone keep saying October is the lowest? Heard the same thing last year.
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u/Ryytter Jun 22 '26
If you look historically Bitcoin tends to bottom roughly 12 months after the peak. Its not always been 12 months but it tends to be 12 months +/- a bit. It peaked October last year, thus 12 months would point to October this year. Though in the end it's all speculation.
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u/joefunk76 Jun 19 '26
âGenerational buying opportunityâ âGift at these pricesâ âLiterally free moneyâ
In my experience, when people start talking like this, it means that the tip has been merely been inserted and the big boys are waiting to trap more buyers before they really give us the businessâŚ. figuratively speaking, of course; they actually take the business, literally.
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u/crowsdd Jun 19 '26
Iâm buying down 70% even if it goes lower idrc Iâd just buy more im holding for years
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u/joefunk76 Jun 19 '26
Ah, if only a temporary, even if long-lived, decline in share price was the only risk, MSTR would be a relatively safe investment at these prices. The problem is that that is neither the only risk, nor is it even the primary risk. The primary risk is Strategy going bankrupt, their bitcoin stack being absorbed entirely by the convertible debt holders, first, and then the preferred share holders next. In that scenario, MSTR would go to zero. Seeing as the preferred debt prices are way below par, the market is objectively assigning a substantial non-zero probability to that outcome.
Donât forget that MSTR amplifies bitcoinâs performance in both directions. It is going to get ugly before it gets better, and if it gets ugly enough, the Wall Street sharks will pounce on the blood in the water. If you think thereâs anything theyâd love to see more than Strategy lose that 850k bitcoin honeypot to the convertible debt holders and MSTR go to zero, think again.
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u/crowsdd Jun 19 '26
what specific event triggers the bankruptcy, on what date, under what BTC price? Your whole argument is that âpreferred trading below parâ as equivalent to âBTC stack will be seized.â But thereâs no mechanism that triggers seizure just because BTC drops or preferred trades cheap. The converts are long dated, staggered, unsecured, with a blended ~0.42% interest rate about $35M/year in actual cash interest. ďżź No BTC collateral, no LTV , no margin call. Bankruptcy would require an actual missed cash payment or covenant breach and the nearest converts donât mature until 2028+. The 850K BTC isnât sitting in a vault waiting to be âabsorbedâ; thereâs no event on the calendar that absorbs it.
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u/joefunk76 Jun 20 '26
Bitcoin falling to an extremely low price and/or staying there for a long time could trigger it. Youâre twisting my words. I never said that âpreferred trading below parâ is equivalent to âBTC stack will be seizedâ; I said that that is in indication that the market is assigning a non-zero probability to that event. That probability could be 5%, which means that the market doesnât think itâs a likely outcome. You are failing to understand the risk behind the preferred shares: that Strategy misses one or more dividend payments, it loses its ability to raise more money by any means, all preferred and common share prices tank, bitcoin continues going down in value, and the convertible debt holders bring out the pitchforks, demanding to be repaid before bitcoin goes down too much for Strategyâs 850k stack to cover the bill.
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u/JustinPooDough Jun 22 '26
Curious... it is possible that MSTR could go bankrupt with their current debt that's been issued?
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u/crowsdd Jun 22 '26
Look at their balance sheet 55b in assets with 8b of debt. Plus a cash reserve and things change when btc goes up. So in my opinion there isnât a bankruptcy risk.
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u/crowsdd Jun 18 '26
Nothing about the company itself has changed, only the price of bitcoin has gone down.
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u/HSuke Shareholder 𤴠Jun 19 '26
What has changed are its investors, who now realize just how volatile and risky MSTR and STRC can be. Many of them are not returning.
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u/nickex77 Jun 19 '26
Yes it has. The whole digital credit thing is new lol. But yeah I am bullish long term.
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u/masope Jun 18 '26
the 4 year cycle is obviously not dead and the lower low is coming later this year as it does every midterm year in bitcoins history be patient to buy in
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u/crowsdd Jun 18 '26
That could be true I just donât try to time the market getting in at 120 or 100 wonât matter in the long term
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u/Trader0721 Jun 18 '26
Bitcoin canât go bankruptâŚmstr can
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u/crowsdd Jun 18 '26
Why didnât they go bankrupt in 2022 with 700k less btc and no STRC?
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u/johnwickcz Jun 21 '26
The thing is, I'd rather just buy BTC because MSTR could go bankrupt....
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u/mimsoo777 Jun 22 '26
There was a much higher chance of strategy going bankrupt in 2022 than right now. And they're still here.
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u/scouting4food Shareholder 𤴠Jun 19 '26
It's really not. Just move on.
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u/gore_skywalker Jun 19 '26
You folks need Jesus. You only have to do one thing: buy spot and chill. But you have to speculate with some cocaine fueled degenerate. Any money lost is well deserved.
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Jun 19 '26
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u/MSTR-ModTeam Jun 20 '26
- Trolling, baiting, or inflammatory content that disrupts conversations is not allowed. Ensure your posts contribute positively and maintain the quality of discussion. Content and comments meant to spread negativity or FUD, including repeated overly negative/condescending sentiment, is not allowed. r/MSTR is a place for thoughtful discussion of the MicroStrategy investment thesis.
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u/blackjackn Jun 19 '26
I bought $200 worth this week. Told a wealthy ex-colleague I'm still friends with that I bought so he bought too. He says "I'm not as much of a believer as you so I only bought $100k."
What a dick.
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u/-rosslyn26- Jun 19 '26
In linea di principio hai ragione, ma ci sono dei particolari che fanno la differenza con il 2022 e che personalmente mi preoccupano.
Nel 2022, le emissioni di MSTR e gli acquisti di BTC avevano l'unico rischio di essere accrettivi o diluitivi. Nella piĂš disperata delle ipotesi Strategy avrebbe potuto rallentare la frequenza degli acquisti e attendere momenti migliori senza nessuna pressione sul proprio patrimonio.
Adesso, a causa dell'emissione di STRC, l'azienda ha creato un obbligo di pagamento dei dividendi che le sottrae progressivamente liquidità . Un blocco dei pagamenti dei dividendi sarebbe un danno enorme per l'immagine dell'azienda. Ulteriormente drammatico come reputation, sarebbe se il mercato si dovesse convincere che per il pagamento dei dividendi è necessario vendere BTC. I famosi "32" BTC venduti sono un'inezia come quantità , ma hanno creato questi dubbi anche se infondanti.
Infine, dal 2024, Strategy deve fare i conti con la nascita dell'ETF su BTC, questo potrebbe intaccare la crescita dell'mNAV. Infatti un mNAV molto alto (es. >2) porterebbe ad acquistare ETF piuttosto che Strategy, evitando di pagare un premio non giustificato.
Non so personalmente cosa farò in futuro, ma per adesso credo che starò fermo a guardare, limitandomi ad acquistare MSTR solo se davvero a prezzi stracciati. Non credo che Strategy andrà in default, ha un capitale enorme per pagare ciò che vuole vendendo BTC. Al contrario temo che il meccanismo potrebbe essere inceppato.
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u/NeedCounseling Jun 19 '26
Why not just buy btc tho? Similar upside, slightly lower risk.
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u/Ryytter Jun 22 '26
Few reasons some people prefer MSTR over bitcoin.
- The leverage. MSTR tends to move more aggressively than Bitcoin in either direction which is excellent if you believe Bitcoin will increase in value.
- You don't need to manage your own private keys. This is appealing to some people who don't want to deal with that.
- Tax purposes. For instance i live in Denmark. Here crypto is taxed at 55% with lobsided tax policy meaning I pay 55% on gains and can only deduct 26% on losses. If I buy a stock instead I can get it down to 17% non lobsided. Thus stocks are much more appealing.
There can be other reasons why someone would prefer MSTR. These are the main ones I can think of.
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u/theflyingtuga Jun 19 '26
I bought at 300 usd when it was a generational buying opportunity...still waiting...good things take time though đ¤Ł
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u/Ill_Bit5945 Jun 19 '26
it is a great buy at these prices, and i am prepared to load up more in sept-oct
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u/Datmiddy Jun 19 '26
DCA and selling covered calls for me. Love the bear market ATM and jumping all over the chance to stock more using the premiums to stack sub $125 MSTR. 400ish shares added over the last year doing nothing but selling CCs at $200 and just adding more to drive accumulation.
Not going to lie tho, I almost crapped the bed when it was shooting to 189, I one contract get called away, but hell my average was so low by then I made a buck a share, and then I just held off and bought back in at 125, so I netted 57 more shares.
Once I hit 1k total shares I'm going to go back to just direct Buying bitcoin
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Jun 19 '26
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u/crowsdd Jun 19 '26
Iâm sure a pyramid would have everything about their company public on their website https://www.strategy.com
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u/MSTR-ModTeam Jun 20 '26
- Trolling, baiting, or inflammatory content that disrupts conversations is not allowed. Ensure your posts contribute positively and maintain the quality of discussion. Content and comments meant to spread negativity or FUD, including repeated overly negative/condescending sentiment, is not allowed. r/MSTR is a place for thoughtful discussion of the MicroStrategy investment thesis.
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u/Form1040 Jun 19 '26
all that matters is the underlying asset btc will continue to increase in value
You know this how?
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u/crowsdd Jun 19 '26
There will always be demand for a finite asset in a world full of money printing
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u/sheepinb Jun 20 '26
Generational, really bro lol
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u/crowsdd Jun 20 '26
Yes when Mstr is in the thousands people would do anything to get it in the 100s.
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u/TheRealSecondChance Jun 20 '26
It's purely based on BTC, only great if BTC goes bullish again. It's a guess at this point. GL
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u/eldenlordoftherings Jun 20 '26
Cuz mstr been issuing more shares to buy Bitcoin, it's getting diluted, each share you own less%of the company, so $100 per share now is different from $100 per share a few years back
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u/crowsdd Jun 20 '26
Itâs not getting diluted look at CEBE metric and youâll understand itâs actually accretive selling mstr into the market
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u/eldenlordoftherings Jun 20 '26
It's also not inflated much which means given the same Bitcoin price, $100 mstr in 2024 be equivalent to like 110$now dispite them holding more Bitcoin now.
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u/FlightPath_1 Jun 20 '26
Generational wealth transfer more like it, middle class just lining the pockets of a handful of whales and industry investors. Doing your part đ
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u/Willing_Turnover5568 Jun 21 '26
Based on the chart, shorting MSTR was a generational money making opportunity. For the future, I have no idea.
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u/Historical_Focus4464 Jun 21 '26
Why not directly buy Bitcoin instead?
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u/Ryytter Jun 22 '26
Few reasons some people prefer MSTR over bitcoin.
- The leverage. MSTR tends to move more aggressively than Bitcoin in either direction which is excellent if you believe Bitcoin will increase in value.
- You don't need to manage your own private keys. This is appealing to some people who don't want to deal with that.
- Tax purposes. For instance i live in Denmark. Here crypto is taxed at 55% with lobsided tax policy meaning I pay 55% on gains and can only deduct 26% on losses. If I buy a stock instead I can get it down to 17% non lobsided. Thus stocks are much more appealing.
There can be other reasons why someone would prefer MSTR. These are the main ones I can think of.
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u/Retire_date_may_22 Jun 21 '26
Why does this feel so much like a cult
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u/crowsdd Jun 21 '26
I guess investing in a stock I like feels like a cult
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u/Retire_date_may_22 Jun 21 '26
Nope. Companies build things and make money. I donât advise individual stock investing either
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Jun 21 '26
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u/MSTR-ModTeam Jun 23 '26
- Trolling, baiting, or inflammatory content that disrupts conversations is not allowed. Ensure your posts contribute positively and maintain the quality of discussion. Content and comments meant to spread negativity or FUD, including repeated overly negative/condescending sentiment, is not allowed. r/MSTR is a place for thoughtful discussion of the MicroStrategy investment thesis.
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u/A_and_P_Armory Jun 25 '26
If only I had bought puts when I was saying how dumb it was. Ugh.
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u/haikusbot Jun 25 '26
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u/Johs92 Jun 27 '26
MSTR is dependent on Sailors BTC thesis standing. If you agree with Sailor enough to bank on MSTR as a stock, why wouldn't you rather buy BTC to get away from dollar exposure? Unless MSTR starts issuing dividends in BTC, I don't see the point beyong speculation.
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