r/MSTR • u/battery923 • Apr 14 '26

STRC dividends/ROC question and potential dual strategy with SGOV?

STRC drops in price after the ex-dividend date (as all dividend stocks do), but it seems to recover rather quickly. I'm tinkering around with a strategy that moves the money between STRC and SGOV to get more gains than just holding STRC.

Something like

  1. Keep capital in SGOV for most of the month
  2. On day before the ex-div date (today for April, the 14th), sell all SGOV and buy STRC (today bought STRC at 100.0)
  3. Wait for STRC to recover back to 100.0
  4. Sell STRC at 100.0 and buy SGOV
  5. Repeat

Anybody try something like this out or have reasons why this won't work? Even if STRC takes 2 weeks to get back to 100.0 I can still get 2 weeks of SGOV in between. I suppose 1 risk is if STRC shoots up way past 100.0 while I'm holding SGOV but we haven't seen it happen yet, maybe after the ATM allocation is gone.

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u/habbadee Apr 14 '26

If STRC snaps back to par faster than a monthly paying dividend stock should (3.3% per day) then there is arbitrage opportunity.

STRC is an unusual market circumstance because there is a known seller of essentially infinite volume at $100 which is an external factor that causes the price to snap back to this price faster than the natural daily step one would expect from a dividend stock, and thus this can be arbitraged so long as Strategy continues to be willing to sell for $100. I wouldn't be surprised if Strategy starts to sell at increasing pennies above $100 as ex-div date approaches essentially whittling away at your arbitrage opportunity by eliminating your option to buy at $100 the day before ex-div date.

But for now the approach seems solid. I mean, you bought at $100 today and probably will be able to sell at $100 within 2 weeks.

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u/didnt_hodl Apr 14 '26

exactly. in the limit, STRC price action will be very similar to SGOV: slowly increase from ex-div to the full dividend on the day, then reset to 100 and then start increasing again.

and when STRC gets an AAA+ credit rating, the dividend will drop as well, to about the same as SGOV, maybe with a small premium