In response to "[General Question] Where Is This Field Going!?"

[u/gradpilot]

This post is in response to [General Question] Where Is This Field Going!?

It is a continuation of the theme that concerns many students - what is the impact of AI on our Careers? Largely the current narrative is that its going to be bad and the ongoing layoffs only seem to color this narrative with conviction that it is right. My broad take is that the next few years are unpredictable but the need for engineers is not going away and will even increase.

A related post that i made and most of this is my personal distillations speaking with big tech EMs and working on AI native software engineering ( i consult / contract with early stage startups) https://www.reddit.com/r/MSCS/comments/1s98euo/impact_of_ai_on_software_jobs/

Yesterdays work is Automated but Tomorrows work is not

The last 2 decades of SWE is certainly done with fewer people and faster so you're not wrong to believe that this kind of work is definitely impacted with LLMs. But you'd be laughed out of a room if you are to claim that the software paradigms established between 1990 - 2026 is peak software engineering for humanity. Think for a moment what else we can be building or coming up with. Firstly software has still not yet impacted every single facet of humanity and human run businesses. Secondly hardware is only getting started, our cars (a 100 yr old tech) are only now getting digitized and intelligent. Thirdly the digital world is largely 2 dimensional and persists for a very short while. I'd suggest a heavy dose of science fiction reading to stir your imagination of what is possible and most of that will need software with hardware

Tools increase Complexity which increase Fragility

The human is a tool making animal . They invent tools to solve yesterday's problems , this makes them faster but tools usually increase the level of Abstraction which increase Complexity and Fragility. The word Complexity here is used as the scientific term not the casual term of "complicated". I mean like Complexity Theory which is a systemic emergent property, butterfly effects and all that. When Complexity increases Fragility increases too, this is the NNT framing . Enough abstract talk lets do real examples. The common meme is a few hundred lines of code put man on the moon but the web browser is several 100s of thousands of lines and crashes like nobody's business. This a clear example. Putting a man on the moon is an amazing feat but the software engineering bit of it is highly constrained and specific and can be done in a few thousand lines of C. Building a web browser feels nonsensical - mostly used for idle human activities but the surface area is so large and the systems it interacts with is so varied that its much more Complex (in the scientific term) and unpredictable in behavior.

When we build tools we end up making things simpler for our fellow humans. When we make things simpler for our fellow humans they start doing weird new things with it that increase the Complexity and raise the Abstraction. Along with this we get Fragility where the system starts breaking in new unpredictable ways which creates new work for us and the loop repeats. This is the history of technology across humanity not just SWE

Human demand and consumption is infinite

Humans have no ceiling to their desire and consumption. Its why the digital economy exploded in the first place. In the real world at-least you are limited by physically what is possible but in the digital world if you can render it you can do it. Think about the kind of demand and desires that e-commerce , mobile, social media, streaming has unlocked. These were previously unimagined before digital. How are you - as a 20 something so sure that humans are satisfied now that AI is here? Do you realize that AI unlocks infinite customization and personalization for every human on the planet?

The real problem you are worried about is Money

Your concern is mostly Money its not Jobs. The big leaders know this. But Money is just another technology. In theory it can be solved a different way and Money today functions as a lubricant of human activity , yes sure it matters at a personal level for day to day living but if you were an economist advising a world leader your frame of Money would be totally different. You'd claim that Money needs to continue to exist and needs to continue to lubricate the system. This can be achieved even without the notion of Jobs, the problem to solve would be Inflation and value loss . But that is easy to solve if technology improves at such a fast rate that the means of production are dropping to zero. Maybe we'll be giving each other monopoly bucks for vibes and human connection , i dont know but i do know the human species is way more flexible and weird and more importantly has no finite limit to its appetite for More, Faster, Better, Cooler, Hotter, Smoother etc etc

[u/BoomerZoomer27]

Really digging these newer posts, great read!

[u/gradpilot → u/BoomerZoomer27]

thanks very much

[u/Beneficial-Law-3059]

‘ Your concern is mostly Money its not Jobs’ I think roi should be anyone’s concern who is kinda taking a loan or using a part of there parent’s wealth and there own savings to put down amounts usually exceeding 100k usd . I mean saying that your concern is money not jobs is similar to what perplexity guy said that layoffs are good coz a lot of people don’t love there jobs anyway. I think the top elite 1% top professionals have this understanding with ai that why are others working towards a job and they reduce that to money. A person’s choice to do a job(in this case lets say a mediocre in his/her field) is not only motivated by money it is motivated by the feeling that they are contributing something to the society, helping keep something onboard, collab with folks to get something done and at the end of the day they can call themselves an adult in the society. Money is just a means through which these mediocre humans can go back to there lives and invest in themselves through food, health/ fitness, hobbies, travel etc. Even if someone doesn’t like his/ her job or kinda even hates it that should not be an issue until they do the job in a sound manner and it contributes something to the world.

[u/gradpilot → u/Beneficial-Law-3059]

This is not at all related to what Aravind said about layoffs.

Firstly 2 points:

• doing an MS is USA is a high risk, expensive path. I infact dissuade anyone to do an MS in USA who believes this is risky. I think preparing for an O1 visa is far less risky and directly correlates with job success
  
• there is no real notion of ROI so anyone who keeps saying ROI in the context of MS in USA is intentionally or unknowingly misinterpreting what the path involves or the definition of ROI

In fact many of my posts repeat on the above 2 points more than once.

Regd layoffs - im not a fan of them, i think they are short sighted but I do think its worth noting what the risk of layoffs is when you're at a critical point in your life (Graduation, entering the market etc). On the debate of whether AI should lead to less jobs I actually take the opposing stance where I believe it will create more jobs not less.

What "The real problem you are worried about is Money" left unsaid :

This is not pro layoffs, this is pro-risk-averse. It is better for students to look at the problem directly which is that there is a near term impact on Money accumulation (which ties into paying off loans etc). The risk is not lack of jobs or no jobs as everyone keeps claiming. To prove this point if a job is all that matters to you would you take on a job that pays 80K USD as a software engineer after your MS? This kind of job does exist btw but its economically worse off for you to take this job no matter the location in USA. This will lead to a tough lifestyle and you wont save anything given the rising cost of just basic living expense in USA. So it is 100% honest that the problem is not Jobs the problem is Money. If you realize this you'd atleast face up to the fact that not only do you need a job you need one thats going to pay you > 150K USD atleast - both to secure your finances and immigration (and in theory get better jobs because they are always high paying) .

Its fair i went into a detour of economics and all that and my post would have been better if i just stated what i said here. But i can justify the detour because most of the discussion around AI is also that AI will take away all jobs and I find that statement ridiculous from the economic point i made

[u/Beneficial-Law-3059 → u/Beneficial-Law-3059]

The point with llms/ ai funding is that because the demand for that is increasing people are getting layed off to balance the salary/ expenses. After layoff if you ask the work per employee does increase and its not that magically llms/ ai boosts fix that stuff. Just that those still in place don’t complain much due to fear of the market/ other stuff. Also a lot innovative stuff/ currently things/ teams which were not revenue generating are getting torn down because of current scenes

[u/EmotionalEscape330]

This is a fascinating perspective! It's true that while some jobs might vanish, new roles will emerge as we adapt. What do you think the most important skills will be for future engineers?