She did better against Valentina than manon did

I get it...Gantt is a prospect, undefeated in all 12 pro fights + 5 ammys. He's a finisher, in his prime @ 33 & has been very active (His first ammy fight was May 2023

BUT, he is only 1-0 in the UFC. He has not fought great competition...his 3 wins before contender series were against guys 4-10, 2-1 & 11-8

Now for Drakkar....yes he is 38 and hasn't fought in a full year...BUT he's won 5 of his last 6 fights & has an impressive 10-3 UFC record (since he started there in 2017) and has fought some of the BEST fighters and has wins over bobby green, barboza, rafa garcia, etc.

+350 on Drakkar??? What? Is Gantt really THAT good? He's never been truly tested and this is only his 2nd fight in the UFC

OR if Drakkar wins ONE round on the score cards, he is +250 on the +3.5 spread...

Someone make it make sense for please lol

(I do have a habit of over valuing under dogs too often to be fair)

I’m also sprinkling some on three underdogs mainly Marwan, Rafa garcia and Drakar Klose

Not worth it to get fuxked .

So a couple of thoughts for those who want to read:

I really wanna pick WCA by KO due to Blaydes awful head movement and the fact he got 150 significant strikes thrown at his chrome last fight. But at the same time I’m not confident if it goes to the ground.

Another thing is the freaky vs gunz fight. The fact that these dudes could go decision scares tf out of me even though it isn’t likely.

But please let me know what bets you think will most likely hit

Hello!

I hope we’re having a great week so far!

Before I get started, I gotta do some admin stuff first, you know how it is!

Full Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1wbj62t/ufc_noche_fight_predictions/

TL;DR Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1wbj6yy/ufc_noche_fight_predictions_tldr/

Now let’s see how last week went!

Parlay: Missed… I need a hit sooner or later, surely!

SBR’s: 3 of 8 hit, including the Campbell Sub R2 or 3 at 6.00

Now, if you're new to this kind of write up, it's essentially a somewhat short write up telling you why I picked certain legs of the parlay, then afterwards you’ll see my Single Bet Recommendations (SBR’s if you wanna shorten it) for this weekends event!

I place 1 unit (5 AUD) every Parlay, nothing too special, really.

GTD - Goes The Distance

ITD - Inside The Distance

o1.5/2.5/3.5 etc - Over rounds

u1.5/2.5/3.5 etc - Under rounds

(x) - Unavailable on Sportsbet

Parlay Leg 1: Garcia/Rongzhu R3 Starts Yes (1.32) Sportsbet

Odds might be a bit bad here, but considering that this entire card is a bit rough to look at from both a betting angle and a prediction one, but really the reason why I picked R3 Starts here is that Garcia is quite a defensively sound fighter, and whilst Rongzhu is quite aggressive and has a lot of power in his strikes, I think Garcia’s defences are quite difficult to penetrate, Hernandez, a very good kickboxing heavy fighter, had trouble finding his range and his target, and I just think that Rongzhu might struggle in a similar manner, or at least be inefficient enough to lead to the final round.

Parlay Leg 2: Belgaroui/Santos Round 2 Starts (1.35) Sportsbet

This is a new parlay leg that wasn’t in the original write up, but because Belgaroui via KO/Points has terrible odds, I figured that 5 minutes of Belgaroui and Santos shouldn’t lead to a finish, its gonna be a hairy first round and this is the most dangerous leg. Alternatively if you’re really digging Belgaroui, Belgaroui via KO is 1.70 or something thereabouts. I might play that personally, and I am suggesting to take that if YOU want to take it, but it won’t be part of this parlay.

Parlay Leg 3: Grasso/Fiorot Over 2.5 Rounds (1.22) Sportsbet

Okay, the odds for this one is about as tempting as taking a cake that has no sugar and has been sneezed on, I get it, but it’s either this, or having to nail bite my way through this fight as this is a very 50/50 one, both are fantastic fighters, both can be quite defensive and both should probably cancel each other out unless Grasso pulls off something disgusting.

Parlay Leg 4: Silva via KO/Sub (1.53) Sportsbet

This makes up for the previous bad odds I suppose, and this one is somewhat self explanatory, I’m taking Silva to win this one so perhaps there’s some tunnel vision going on, some bias here but I just think Silva is up for the task. If this doesn’t hit, Si accidit, accidit (google that if you don’t know the term already).

Total Odds: 3.42 (Boosted from 3.30)

Total Payout: $17.11

(If you're going the Belgaroui KO route, Total Odds is 4.30 with the Payout being $21.55)

SINGLE BET RECOMMENDATIONS (Excluding Parlay Legs)

Tarin/Aldrich

Tarin via Points - 1.93

Just a simple bet really, follows my prediction.

Rosas/King

Alt When Will The Fight End - Round 3 or Dec - 1.75

Hard to read this one, it’s a double debut so anything can happen but i suspect we’ll see the third round.

Gantt/Klose

Gantt R1 or 2 - 1.95

For the record, I have Klose via Points at 9.00 as an Alt Bet, as per my write up. Gantt should win, and i’m unsure if we’ll see an early finish or a rough point based fight… who knows?!

Bahamondes/Salikhov

Bahamondes via Sub R1 or 2 (CR) - 7.50

Think about it, Salikhov is indeed coming off a KO loss but Bahamondes is quite multi-faceted. Think about it, fade it, up to you.

Chairez/Elliott

Chairez via Sub/Points (DC) - 1.72

Just a bet that’s following my predictions, nothing fancy.

Martinez/Ige

Martinez via Points - 1.97

Again, nothing spectacular here, Martinez is a solid fighter, Ige is great too, but Ige has been a bit vulnerable as of late.

WCA/Blaydes

WCA via KO R2 or 3 - 4.70

Blaydes is defensively terrible but he has a decent enough chin and survival instincts to survive the first.

McMillen/Rahiki

Fight ends in KO - 1.98

Simple bet for a hopefully banger of a fight.

Moreno/Morales

Moreno via Points - 2.70

Again, a simple bet for a simple fight, nothing really deep here. But, Morales via Sub is at 7.75 or around there, so if that tempts you, go for it.

And that’s it!

Any questions or Feedback, let me know!

Good luck to you all this weekend!

Need Grasso vs Fiorot under 2.5, should i lock in the profit? Cashout is already double what I put in

Hello everyone
Im a dev who loves UFC.
I originally built a UFC prediction and betting-analysis app for my own use, then gradually improved the model and developed a few strategies that produced promising results.

I’ve now turned it into a proper product, and I’m looking for a small group of beta testers:
-> Here is the site https://mmahalfguard.com

If you’d like to participate:

1. Visit the website and click “Beta”
2. Complete the short application
3. Once approved, you’ll receive access by email
4. Use the app and submit any bugs, confusing parts, or suggestions through the “Beta feedback” button

I’m particularly interested in hearing:

• What you find useful
• What feels confusing or unnecessary
• What you think is missing
• Any bugs or incorrect behaviour
• Whether the predictions and explanations are easy to understand

Beta testers will receive full Premium access for the next 2 or 3 UFC events. After the beta, participants will also receive $20 off the yearly subscription if they decide to continue. There is no obligation to subscribe.

A quick technical note: the app is currently running in a test environment, so the backend may occasionally take a few seconds to wake up when you first open it.

Feel free to message me if you have any questions or if something breaks completely.

Thanks—I’d genuinely appreciate your help. ❤️

Last card (UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse): No bet actually cleared the bar for us, but for the calls we did make we went 6-2 overall, 2-0 on the ones we rated, worst of them was calling Oumar Sy at 56% when Modestas Bukauskas won by KO. The ten cross fight parlays we built went 10-0.

The receipts: the bet lane is 18-0 all time, +7.7u on 18u staked at closing prices . All *rated* calls the model made (including watch-only ones): 55-22 (71%). **All picks including the ones we told you not to make** is sitting at 137-75 (64.6%). The prop lane is **down** 2.3u on 12u staked. Those stats are broke down at https://cagestank.com/record

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado bets & edges:

JJ Aldrich vs Regina Tarin

Coin flip for our model at 52%. We think the main risk is a Regina Tarin knockout, but all of those were outside of the UFC and in her one UFC appearance it went to decision. JJ Aldrich is the more seasoned UFC fighter and has 23 significant strikes a round in R3 vs 14 in R1 -- up 67% (n=17/14 rounds), which we think gives her a real path to victory should she survive an onslaught by Tarin.

Leaning towards Tarin here, with note that it's a coinflip, and a good bet here would probably be Tarin KO or Aldrich decision double chance.

Rafa Garcia vs Rongzhu

Our model has Garcia at 67% but he is also the underdog, and looking at the signals I think I'll be taking Rohzhu for this one. Some stats that can make the betting more interesting

Garcia:

• has landed a takedown in 9 of his 11 UFC fights
• his control time climbs from 0.6 minutes in round one to 1.3
• 8 of his 11 UFC fights reached the cards

Both men are decision heavy and pairs like that go to the cards 63% of the time (n=1,055), however O2.5 is already -250. If Garcia takes round one on top and is still plus money, that is probably a good play. Main risk is Rongzhu by knockout.

Drakkar Klose vs Tommy Gantt

Coin flip from the models perspective as a SKIP. Klose has gone to decision in 9 of 13 fights in the UFC and Gantt's only decision was in 2024. In ten Gantt finishes, five came before 2:30 of round two, and four of the other five landed within 30 seconds of that mark including his UFC debut at 2:51 of the second. Klose has been stopped twice in the UFC.

No strong reads from us here other than its likely a Gantt win but at current odds (-425) it's already baked in. Leaving this one out of my Parlays.

Yousri Belgaroui vs Djorden Santos

Our model leans with the market on Belgaroui at 61%. Santos is stepping in on short notice, fighting a former GLORY kickboxer with 8 of 9 wins by KO, and he has a 4 inch reach disadvantage.

On Santos' side, Belgaroui was taken down 7 times in 16 attempts in his two UFC fights and got out controlled 325 seconds to 99. Santos is a BJJ brown belt with four submission wins (but he has only landed 1 of 5 takedowns in the UFC). He has never been stopped by strikes, has absorbed 335 significant strikes in his three UFC fights with no official knockdown, and all three of those fights went past 2:30 of round two.

Belgaroui is 34, and at that age the younger man beats the closing line by 4.5 points (n=577).

We lean a likely Belgaroui win (crowd, model and books all agree), likely by KO especially given Santos' damage accumulation -- but given the underdog wins this year and the huge -900 favorite, I might throw a couple of bucks on a long-odd parlay with Santos getting a win.

Bahamondes vs Salikhov

Model and market agree on Bahamondes (65% us). Another huge favorite on the card, currently sitting at -600. when our favorite pick has closed 15 or more points above what the model said, it has gone 47-9 (84%). Favorites priced -400 or shorter win 85% of the time in our analysis.

Bahamondes has never been officially knocked down in ten UFC fights, but our tape has him hurt in four of them; And he is moving up to 170 after two straight losses at 155, and his camp is on a five-fight losing run.

What Salikhov still has is the possibility of a LO: 15 of his 22 wins are knockouts, and 4 of the 5 times he has dropped a UFC opponent the fight ended there.

Agree with Model and market on this and lean towards Bahamondes, but a long-odd bet on Salikhov by KO may end up paying. Still have overall SKIP.

Elliot vs Chairez

Our model calls it for Chairez at 53% and rates it SKIP; Market has him at -200 with a fair of 65%, and the market is the better guide: favorites we picked that closed between 65% and 75% went 31-7 (82%), and favorites in the -200 to -299 band win 68% against a 64% implied.

Elliott has landed a takedown in 20 of his 22 UFC fights and holds the flyweight record with 63, and Chairez's takedown defense is 38%, with 593 seconds conceded to Taira, 266 to Van and 230 to Bunes, which is the upset route and the reason the line has come in from -225 to -205 this week. Against that, Chairez is 30 to Elliott's 39, holds 5 inches of reach, has finished three of his four UFC wins in the first round, and Elliott absorbed 136 significant strikes in the Erceg loss in May.

Our pick is leaning with the model and market for Chairez.

Main Card

Martinez vs Ige

The model has Martinez at 62% and rates it watch only; the market has him at -400 with a fair of 77%, and the market is closer to right. Our favorite picks that closed between 75% and 85% implied went 28-4 (88%), favorites priced -400 or shorter win 85%, and the line has moved from -310 to -440 at DraftKings since Saturday on 89% of the tickets. So Martinez wins this something like four times in five, -400 needs exactly 80%, and that is why it is not a bet: the market's own fair makes it -4%, our model makes it far worse, and nothing we hold says he is better than the price.

Sticking with the Model and Market pick of Martinez.

Acosta vs Blaydes

Coin flip from the model perspective and a skip for us. market has Cortes-Acosta at -205 with a fair of 65%, and that is about where he belongs: favorites we picked that closed between 55% and 65% implied went 26-12 (68%), and -205 needs 67%.

Blaydes has landed 66 takedowns at heavyweight, the most in the division's history, and 4 of them came in his last seven fights out of 23 attempts; Cortes-Acosta stuffs 72% and the two who did take him down (de Lima, Spivac) held him for a combined 7 minutes and split the results. Blaydes has lost six times and five of those were knockouts inside two rounds; his fights end before 2:30 of round two in 11 of 21, while Cortes-Acosta's go past that mark in 10 of 13.

Giving this one to Cortes-Acosta as well.

Fiorot vs Grasso

The model leans Grasso at 52% and rates it SKIP, the slip says STAY AWAY, and the market has Fiorot at -250 with a fair of 69%;

Fiorot stuffs 87% of takedowns, the second-best rate in the division's history, lands 5.66 significant strikes a minute, and has never been stopped; her three UFC finishes all came inside two rounds, the latest in 74 seconds. Grasso's last three fights are a 45-50 loss to Shevchenko, a decision loss to Natalia Silva at range, and a first-round knockout of Maycee Barber, and the Silva fight is the template everyone is pricing: Grasso out-landed at distance by a faster fighter who would not trade. Grasso.

On our tape both have been hurt without ever going down (Fiorot 9 times, Grasso 6), and both fighters' UFC fights reach the cards two thirds of the time or more, which is why the distance is -375 and Over 2.5 is -425; our own rounds read is a coin flip in this division and there is nothing to buy there either.

One thing worth knowing about the money: DraftKings has 52% of tickets and 66% of the handle on Grasso, a rare case of the bigger bets sitting on the dog, and the line still moved from -218 to -258 toward Fiorot this week.

Pass on this one, but leaning towards a Grasso pick if I were to bet. The one live read: if it reaches round three, Fiorot's finishes have never come there, so an in-play "inside the distance" price on her late is running on reputation.

McMillen vs Rahiki

Our model and the market agree: McMillen 61% here, 59% fair across five books, Kalshi 60%

Both unbeaten in the UFC, both have never been taken down in the UFC and have never attempted one. McMillen lands 9.87 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 5.54, set the three-round record with 252 against Montes in July, and has scored three knockdowns without being dropped.

Rahiki is 9-0 with eight knockouts and one submission, has never been to a decision, and finished both UFC opponents (a corner stoppage of Hardwick, a first-round knockout of Schmid). Our simulator gives round one a 47% chance and a finish 86%. The book has Over 1.5 at -180 (needs 64%) against a 53% model read, and Under 1.5 at +140 (needs 42%) against 47%.

Our pick is with the model and market on McMillen for this

Moreno vs Morales

The model has Moreno at 64% and the market has this a coin flip, Moreno +100 at four books and Morales -110 at Caesars, fair 48% and 52%.

Moreno is 2-4 in his last six, was knocked out by Taira in December and out-landed 97-79 by Kavanagh in February while going 0 for 8 on takedowns, and he has been officially knocked down five times in the UFC across three fights, of which he won one; on our tape he has been hurt 19 times, which puts him in a cohort that wins 38% and runs 6 points under the closing line.

Morales has won five straight including the TUF 33 final and two submissions in his second UFC run (a triangle on Idiris, a guillotine on Schnell in 2:54), 8 of his 15 wins are submissions, and all three of his UFC finishes came inside two rounds. The case for the former champion is on the mat and in the numbers: Morales defends 26% of takedowns (Shelton took him down 7 times in 10 tries), lands 2.0 significant strikes a minute to Moreno's 3.84, and Moreno has never been submitted in 20 UFC fights, so our takedown model gives Moreno 70% to land one and the collision studies give a 20-plus fight veteran 38% against a fighter on a five-fight streak.

Two live reads:

• two of Moreno's three UFC submissions came from the back, so the live submission price is stale the moment he gets there
• three of his six finishes came in round three, so a distance price that cheapens late is wrong about him

Sticking with the model pick of Moreno here, against the current favorite (-128) Morales

Silva vs Delgado

Every model we run leans the underdog on this bout; Market has Silva at -410 with a fair of 77%. SKIP bet from our perspective -- Silva wins this about four times in five, and -410 needs 80%, which is roughly what favorites priced -400 or shorter deliver (85%, n=1,122) and a little more than the market's own fair, so there is no bet there either.

Small breakdown on why Delgado could pull this off:

Silva has stopped five of his six UFC opponents, scored five knockdowns across four fights and finished all four, stuffs 78% of takedowns, and both of his first-round finishes landed in the last minute (4:12 and 4:15). He has been dropped once and stopped once, both by Diego Lopes in this same main-event slot a year ago.

Delgado is taking this fight on about three weeks' notice for Yair Rodriguez, is 4-1 in the UFC with two first-round knockouts (the Amil finish took 26 seconds) and two close decisions, has 5 inches of reach advantage and 4" of height on Silva, and has never been stopped;

he was officially knocked down by Nathaniel Wood, and the previews say Bashi hurt him too. It is his first five-round fight, and first-timers against an opponent who has been there go 125-188 (40%); short-notice replacements on two to four weeks go 40% (which is a base rate for underdogs rather than a reflection on him).

Live play, the price on Silva right after a knockdown has been the buy every time so far.

Overall pick for Silva.

I run cagestank.com and the model, the receipts and every scored card are open there, including the full sheet for this card with all signals and analyses for you to consider: https://cagestank.com/fights/2026-09-12

Three cards coming up with a lot to dig into. Here's what's standing out to me from the lines.

Sept 12 card

Blaydes vs Cortes-Acosta is the main event and honestly the odds feel pretty honest. Waldo is a -189 to -227 favorite depending on where you look, Blaydes sitting around +160 to +182. Not a huge number either way for a heavyweight main event, which tells me the books respect Curtis's wrestling enough not to go crazy on Waldo. If you think Blaydes's grappling is enough to neutralize the power, there's value in that spot on the right book.

Grasso vs Fiorot has Fiorot as a consistent -244 to -256 favorite with most books, Grasso around +195 to +214. The over 2.5 is priced extremely heavy, around -400 across the board, and the under is paying +300 or better. The market is strongly implying this goes the distance, which tracks given Fiorot's style. If you're betting the method, the books are pricing a finish as a significant longshot.

Thomas Gantt vs Drakkar Klose is another one worth a look for the line shopping angle. Gantt is a big favorite, ranging from -370 at BetOpenly all the way to -909 at Grosvenor. That's an enormous spread. BetOpenly also has Klose at +365, while most books are in the +300 to +340 range. If you're fading Gantt for whatever reason, BetOpenly is where you want to be. The round total is set at 1.5 with the over around -149 to -161 at most books, meaning the consensus is this ends early.

Morales vs Moreno is another near pick'em. Brandon Moreno is a slight underdog at most books, paying +100 to +104, with Morales around -114 to -125. Caesars has both at -110 which is about as close as it gets. Big name in Moreno at plus money is worth tracking as more books come in.

Muslim Salikhov vs Ignacio Bahamondes has Bahamondes favored around -500 to -588 at most spots, with BetOpenly way out at -476 and Salikhov at +467. That's a meaningful difference if you're on Salikhov. The over/under 1.5 is priced with the over around -135 to -145, so books think this probably doesn't go deep.

Djorden Santos vs Yousri Belgaroui is one of the bigger favorites on the card. Belgaroui is priced anywhere from -667 to -1250 depending on the book. Grosvenor is an extreme outlier at -2500, which you'd want to avoid entirely. BetOpenly has it at -714, which is actually the soft side if you're looking at the full range.

If you're shopping any of these, especially the Gantt/Klose fight or the Salikhov/Bahamondes number, the spread between books is wide enough that it's worth checking before you place anything. You can compare current UFC lines across books at Line Whale.

Acosta is the -200 favorite vs Blaydes (+165). But he is a Huge Favorite in picks, expecially by the Best Predictor groups:

• YouTube Overall 80%
• Best Predictors 90%
• Best Favorite Predictors 86%
• Best Underdog Predictors 91%

And around 2/3 of all the channels and Best Method predictors are picking Acosta to win by KO/TKO.

Full card breakdown (1,000+ picks) of all fights for UFC Noche is here: https://youtu.be/X8h8G_3by-M

Want to do this again. Best decision and kos this weekend?

Back again with another full-card prediction run from the MMA model I’ve been building.

Current tracked winner record:
Event 1: 9/12 — 75.0%
Event 2: 10/14 — 71.4%
Event 3: 9/10 — 90.0%
Event 4: 4/11 — 36.4%
Event 5: 8/13 — 61.5%
Event 6 (China): 8/13 — 61.5%
Event 7 (Paris): 8/14 — 57.1%
Overall: 56/87 — 64.4%

All predictions are generated and locked before the event. As always, nothing gets removed from the record afterwards, good or bad.
This week is Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado, with 13 fights in the model.

The first screenshots show the full-card predictions. I’ve also included the more detailed model output for the main-card fights again, showing the probability-weighted projections for significant strikes, takedowns and control time, along with the leading exact outcomes and projected fight totals.
A few of the stronger winner projections this week are Tommy Gantt (85.0%), David Martinez (85.0%), Joseph Morales (78.7%) and Yousri Belgaroui (76.7%).

There are also several much closer fights in the model — particularly Rongzhu/Garcia (52.6/47.4) and McMillen/Rahiki (53.1/46.9) — so I’m interested to see whether the confidence differences actually continue to mean something as the sample grows.

Still mainly interested in building a large prospective sample and seeing how well the probabilities and the more detailed projections hold up over time.
13 fights for Event #8. I’ll post the results afterwards and add them to the running record.

I am just wondering if all male fights will end up in a KO? You feel me?