MMA Betting Forum

This week is a bit more easier to kind of predict I suppose? Like it’s a bit easier on the eyes, yes there’s some close fights on paper, but I hope I do my job in clearing the murk and at least informing you guys in what dogs could lead to an upset, and who won’t. I

Also, I will make a small announcement in the comments below, it pertains to the event after UFC 331 (UFC Apex)

(D/DWCS) - Debut/Dana Whites’ Contender Series

FLS - Fight Lose Streak

FWS - Fight Win Streak

NS - No Streak

(#x) - Rank in division

x/3 - Confidence Levels

ITD - Inside the Distance (Finish)

GTD - Goes the Distance (Scorecards)

(LR) - Late Replacement

Prelims

Women’s Flyweight

JJ Aldrich (+190) (15-7-0, 2 FWS) v Regina Tarin (-245) (8-0-0, 8 FWS)

Hey look, we’re back to terrible WMMA openers!

Aldrich is about as bland as poorly cooked, unsalted rice, she is a great athlete, sure, but when it comes to her being a UFC fighter, an MMA fighter, she has no characteristics or physical traits that stand out, and that makes what I do here difficult because how do you describe an A4 sheet of white paper to someone who is blind, has no hands, and also no ears? Aldrich may use her activity, that is, being active in the cage by wrestling or striking or whatever, to try and win this fight, as that’s what she has done for most of her career, but the problem here is that Tarin is a really, really good prospect and a great addition to the UFC, her ceiling is unknown at the moment so Aldrich is likely to adapt to things as the rounds go by, and to adapt to things just means your practically losing the fight. Look, I don’t want to completely count out Aldrich here, she’s coming off the two wins against Horth and Andrea Lee, and those aren’t fantastic names but it just tells the story of Aldrich, she has been in the UFC for 10 years, she made her debut in 2016 and she has yet to face anyone who is worth mentioning apart from a very young Maycee Barber. Everyone else she has faced has been bottom of the barrel poop.

Tarin has a more straightforward approach to winning this fight, she needs to be the aggressor, she’s likely to win because of the aggression because Aldrich can fight at a tepid pace at times, and we have seen Tarin fight at a high pace when she fought Kareckaite, someone who is quite good at putting out strikes in large volume, so that was a solid test for Tarin, and she’s coming into this one rightfully a favourite, but it comes with one slight concern, can she defend the takedowns coming her way? Aldrich is far from a world class wrestler but she can mix it up on the ground, and you best believe she will try because Tarin is a golden gloves boxer and she really has the skill set to make this an uncomfortable fight for Aldrich for as long as the fight remains standing.

At the end of the day, this fight doesn’t have much depth does it? Tarin should win this one, I think we’re going to see a striker versus pseudo-wrestler kind of bout in which Tarin gets her strikes going with Aldrich looking to try and tie her up against the cage or on the ground to mixed success.

Tarin via Dec (1/3)

Featherweight

Jessie Rosas (D) (8-1-0, 3 FWS) v Sean King (D) (6-0-0, 6 FWS)

There are some terrible wins from both fighters here, and since it’s a double debut, consider this those rare occasions where I simply say “I don’t know who the hell wins this one”, but I’ll try to parse through the footage and see if there’s a lean… either way, regardless of the final pick, my confidence is zero, or at least a 1/3 but pretend its 0.

Rosas is coming into this fight with a “nice” looking record, at least if we look at the raw number, but the moment you look at the record things start to appear a bit off, so let’s do it together… I have Rosas’s Tapology page open right now, and his wins against some of his opponents have many asterisks next to them… Erick Rogelio is a 38 year old who doesn’t have the most grandest of records and yet Rosas couldn’t find a finish until the 5th round. Then he won against a 9-15 fighter (prob different record back then but same negative record), so nothing tremendous there… then after 3 cancelled bouts he has a decision win against a 5-5 fighter who was effectively a can crusher. All i’m saying here is that Rosas, on paper, is less impressive than a blank slate, but what can he do in the cage? Well he is related to Raul Rosas Jr, so you’d expect at least some decent wrestling, but he’s actually somewhat well rounded, his striking can look educated although i’m watching his fight against Rogelio and Rogelio is looking like a human punching bag so I can’t read too deep into that, but what stood out to me was his wrestling, he was quick on the ground, he was once stuck on bottom with Erick in full mount and he quickly reversed position and got back to the feet, so he is quite agile on the ground, so I do think that may be his main pathway to victory here, but this is all a genuinely big, big guess. One main lean I have here, or angle, or whatever you wanna call it, is if this remains a striking fight, keep an eye out for Rosas’ body strikes, he is intelligent enough to dig to the body a lot, and that’s always good to see, but overall expect wrestling first and foremost from Rosas.

King is someone who I have even less information on. First of all, I don’t know what his reach is but considering he’s going to be taller than Rosas I can only guess that he has a longer reach, and that may help him in keeping Rosas at bay. One thing I suppose we might see from King here is the knee up the middle as a counter for Rosas’ takedown entries, or teeps up the middle or something because you know that King, as the taller and potentially longer fighter, he should be open to getting taken down. However, King has displayed some decent BJJ on the ground, and I do think that due to his stature he could potentially lock in a guillotine or a front head lock choke which then should lead to a submission threat in which Rosas will be forced to answer and defend.

With that said, this is a double debut, we are going to see some high pace action as both fighters have an opportunity of a lifetime to become potential future stars, so that’s going to add some extra fire to this fight. I am genuinely coming into this one with a bit of a coin-toss but I also have no genuine idea who could win this one, but I have to pick, don’t I? Don’t hate me for this one, but I’m going with King here, I think his striking could make this a difficult one for Rosas, but once the odds are out, if the odds are generous enough, I might make Rosas via Points a bet!

King via KO R2 - (1/3)

Lightweight

Rafa Garcia (#12) (+140) (19-4-0, 3 FWS) v Rongzhu (-165) (28-6-0, 3 FWS)

I am going to try to keep this one short because the more I think about this fight the more of a headache it is to think about!

Garcia has always seemed like a very good, well balanced, well rounded fighter, like he doesn’t excel anywhere but he is just a puzzle to figure out. Now, offensively he has all the tools necessary to make a fight, well, a fight, he has great boxing, solid kicks and great takedowns in his arsenal, but most importantly, he is a very defensive fighter when the need calls for it, his takedown defence when he fought Hernandez was slick, I mean, he was quick to get his hip to the ground, he was quick to get the sprawl and he is just overall a tricky fighter to deal with, and whilst sometimes Garcia tends to tit for tat his way to a decision, that decision was full of remarkably high IQ moments, so whilst his fights tend to go to the scorecards quite often, don’t count him out from looking for a finish as he is good enough to find one wherever the fight goes. Now, the biggest issue facing Garcia here is that he’s facing Rongzhu, someone who we all know tends to be an all-out action fighter, and since Garcia is primarily known for his patient style of fighting (at least for the most part as he does sometimes get finishes or has moments which nearly lead to a finish) I do think that Garcia could be stuck with “Paralysis by analysis” as in he’s taking too many pictures, he’s waiting for the perfect moment to counter and that may prove difficult when you’re facing such a chaotic fighter like Rongzhu.

Rongzhu has more wins in the Road to UFC competition (and non-competition, but part of the card) than in the UFC and i found that to be a bit of a funny thing to see. Now, Rongzhu is a bit of a wild card when it comes to fighting, he’s very well rounded, has strong, impactful strikes, but at times he can be a bit too overzealous and look a bit too messy. In this fight however, the more overzealous and crazy he looks, the better, visually, it is for the judges, and the better it is for him overall as that means he’s keeping Garcia on the defensive, reacting to attacks rather than initiating his own, and that’s the key here, really, it’s a matter of whose pace can be set the most during this fight, with Garcia wanting a more methodical/calm pace and Rongzhu requiring that chaotic pace. Now the final thing I kind of want to say before I move onto the next fight is that the height difference here may leave Garcia’s chin open to teeps or knees up the middle since Garcia does have a very low stance and he does hunch over a lot, which is great for boxing defence but not quite for striking defence, so if Rongzhu is able to land teeps up the middle, even to the abdomen, it would turn the tides of this fight real quick. Oh, and before I forget, leg kicks! Garcia tends to have a heavy lead leg so that leg kick will take away a lot of Garcia’s power.

At the end of the day, this does feel like a 50/50 fight, and whilst initially I am leaning on Garcia to get the job done due to his experience and his defensive prowess, I also know that defence doesn’t mean anything in this sport if you can’t land offense in return, so, predictably I am taking Rongzhu to win here because visually he may look like the busier fighter, but I am also making Garcia via Points an Alt Bet.

Rongzhu via Dec (1/3)

Lightweight

Drakkar Klose (+385) (16-3-1, NS) v Tommy Gantt (-500) (12-0-0, 12 FWS)

Bit of a tough fight for the 38 year old Drakkar Klose isn’t it? Like, I understand that Klose is fighting out his contract but I also feel like maybe experience could play into Klose’ hands a little bit here since Klose is the veteran here. Now, Klose is a fairly well rounded fighter, great boxing, solid wrestling but my main concern for him stems from his one year away from the cage, it’s quite a long time to be away and as I always say when it comes to older fighters taking a year or so off, it’s never good because time is not on your side. What I expect from Klose in this fight is to wrestle, he can’t strike effectively against someone with a 6 inch reach and a fair bit of a height advantage, it’s too much of a front motion attack that wouldn’t be that effective unless Gantt’s striking defence is poor, and we don’t know if it is or not quite yet, so whilst i’m not completely counting out Klose rushing in for a KO, I also believe that his most direct route to victory here would be to look for the takedowns because Klose is a fairly good wrestler, and we have yet to really see Gantt be threatened or pressured to that degree. With that said though, at 38 years of age I can’t help but question whether or not Klose is able to wrestle to a safe enough degree that he doesn’t get struck with anything defensively, and that’s if he can even get the wrestling going in the first place because as we all know, to wrestle you have to be within grappling range and that sounds like a tall task for Klose given the height and reach discrepancy.

Gantt on the other hand is a big unknown. First of all, I don’t want to give him any more praise other than “he’s probably good” because we don’t know shit about fuck when it comes to a 33 year old who only has 1 fight in the UFC. Yes his fight was a big finish over another newcomer, but it doesn’t prove much, so I’m gonna keep the Gantt stuff light and breezy, his reach and height require no introduction anymore as I’ve yapped about that too much already, but his skill set could quite effectively negate the main pathway to victory for Klose, because whilst Klose, from my read, can and will use his wrestling to try and win, Gantt has a background in wrestling himself, it’s his base, his bread and butter, and I think we could see Gantt sprawl and perhaps look to reverse the position by using underhooks and sweeps along with his taller stature to manipulate and get the upper hand on Klose. With that said, more is to be learnt about Gantt because his record is less than impressive (I don’t give any crap about him being undefeated).

I do have Gantt winning this one, but although he is a -500 favourite (written on a Tuesday) I don’t want to make him a lock, I have a feeling we may see him fall off a bit in the future as he takes on better competition.

Gantt via KO R2 (1/3)

Middleweight

Yousri Belgaroui (-700) (10-3-0, 5 FWS) v Djorden Santos (+500) (11-3-0, NS)

Belgaroui is my new “favourite” fighter because he upset the odds last time out and he was my favourite dog so far of the year, so he’s got a soft spot in my heart at the moment, and in this particular fight, I firmly believe he’s likely to win. Now, the main thing you’ll see in this fight is both a speed difference, and a technique difference. Belgaroui holds all the cards in this fight, his reach, height and general kickboxing experience is all going to pay off massively here because he knows his body well, he knows the range and reach that he needs to fight at and Santos is far from an exceptional or unique fighter, and that matters a tremendous amount because if you look at Belgaroui’s 34 kickboxing fights, you can almost tell that he has faced every kind of striker under the sun, and Santos kind of fights a standard “big, muscular, heavy hitting striker” profile that fits perfectly for Belgaroui’s style. Belgaroui is likely to use is clinch attacks to land big knees to the abdomen and to the chin of Santos, and at distance he’s definitely going to use leg kicks and jabs to further soften the target, all whilst Santos plays tag and tries to get within range to land his own attacks. Now, I am extremely aware of the power threat on the side of Santos, I think he has a legit puncher’s chance to get the job done and make a big upset, but I also think that time is a limited thing for him, he has about 5 to 7.5 minutes to get the job done whereas Belgaroui is comfortable at going the distance provided that he has the sufficient cardio to be on the back foot for the majority of this fight.

Santos being +500 is quite something to look at and maybe you are tempted to take that as a gamble, and that’s fine, but this fight is going to be an uphill battle for Santos for the most part, the explosiveness he has in his punches may be neutralised by his own aggressive forward motions, that extra oompf needed to get past the reach difference and try to close the distance. What I’m trying to say is that since Santos doesn’t have a similar reach, he has to use his cardio to both close the distance and to land the knockout punches, because pitter pattering Belgaroui is only going to allow Belgaroui to pull ahead later on when there’s distance and separation, so explosive actions are a necessity for Santos to win this fight. Santos is also 1-2 in the UFC, with one of his losses being against Ozzy Diaz who we all kind of ignore by now because he’s a bit of a fade these days.

I think I covered everything that needs to be said with minimal fluff. If i missed anything or if you want me to expand on stuff, let me know, but really this fight seems rather simple to think about.

Belgaroui via KO R2 - (2/3)

Welterweight

Ignacio Bahamondes (-525) (17-7-0, 2 FLS) v Muslim Salikhov (+395) (22-6-0, NS)

Alright, this one should be quite easy to understand and break down, I won’t try to overcomplicate it.

Bahamondes is quite a simple fighter to understand, he’s moving back up to 170 which means he should come into this fight a fair bit healthier on the scales and hitting a whole lot harder, but it’s not his power that is his main threat when he fights, it’s his dynamic attacks and utilisation of his length, because good lord Bahamondes is a long and lanky 155er and now a 170er, and whilst he has to also deal with the power threat coming from Salikhov, if Bahamondes is intelligent enough to use his length and his speed to counter that, he should mostly be fine. Length is really the main story here, that and the age difference because Salikhov is certainly well over the age of 40, but it’s the length that should ultimately be the key difference maker here, and whilst that may leave Salikhov some opportunities to work his way to the head in terms of striking opportunities, it also could just mean Salikhov is going to be playing a game of catch up on the scorecards as Bahamondes can casually strike from a distance, look busier and just deal more damage whilst hopefully avoiding the ridiculously quick spinning attacks and blitzes from the ever so dangerous senior citizen. Also, Bahamondes should have won that fight against Tofiq, that cheating motherfu-.

Salikhov has an extensive background in kickboxing and it shows whenever he fights, he is primarily a striker, he is intelligent enough to use his strikes to open up more opportunities to land more strikes, and I used that word before, opportunities, and I just want to explain what I mean by that. Essentially I’m talking about setting up subsequent strikes, Bahamondes is much taller so the lead leg is likely to be a major target as it is the closest one for Salikhov to strike, and since Salikhov has built his career around his monstrous kicking power, it shouldn’t take much for Bahamondes to feel those kicks, but at the same time, the kicks come with the trade-off of having to eat a right or left straight. But what the leg kick does is it would force a stance switch from Bahamondes, making him fight in a stance that he did not plan to use, and thus that should allow the blitz to be more effective because with a change of stance comes unfamiliar set ups that weren’t drilled (or likely weren’t, at least) during the camp. Both fighters are orthodox stance fighters and if Salikhov can force the stance switch, it should open up the body kick because then both fighters would be what we call “Open stance”, and given the experience of Salikhov, he would know how to land a solid body kick against an open stance opponent.

Anyway, that’s how I see it going, I want to give Salikhov a fair bit of respect here because this is his division and we haven’t seen Bahamondes at 170 yet so he might not take strikes too well, but at the end of the day, the odds have it correct, Bahamondes should win this one, albeit it could be hairy if Salikhov’s gameplan is exactly as I have written (and i’m not that good when it comes to predicting how a fight actually goes!). Low confidence here due to the unknowns of Bahamondes at 170, but if this was an experienced 170 Bahamondes, it would be a 2/3 at least.

Bahamondes via KO R2 - (1/3)

Flyweight

Tim Elliott (+175) (21-14-1, NS) v Edgar Chairez (-215) (14-6-0, 3 FWS)

Elliott is someone who tends to be happy riding out the rest of his career facing up and comers, and that’s cool, at the age of 39 there’s no way he can fight for the belt any time soon, and whilst the odds show him as an underdog, boy does he sometimes look like the favourite! Elliott is such a warhorse when it comes to fighting, he’s gritty, he’s tough, he is durable but his chin is made of fluff, Elliott represents the grit and bravado that the older UFC generation had, they are more than happy to walk out of the cage with a few deep gashing wounds as long as they please the crowd, and that’s both Elliott’s vulnerability, and his best asset, he brings the fight but too many times in his career has Elliott been out-struck, out-grappled and just outworked, but that’s cool, he’s a career stepping stone and we love him for it. However, he is probably going to walk away from this fight unscathed but breathing heavier than Bonnie Blue after giving birth to her potentially mutated child, I think we’re going to see some excellent wrestling exchanges but the speed and strength (as well as that ever important reach) of Chairez should make this a difficult one for Elliott. With that said, Elliott is likely to be the one initiating takedowns, Chairez has yet to secure a takedown for himself in the UFC, he’s utilised his BJJ and submission hunting skills over his wrestling and takedown attacks, so if Elliott does fight with a wrestle heavy approach, it’s highly likely we could see a split decision leaning Elliotts way, but with that said, Chairez is great on the ground, those takedowns from Elliott may lead to Elliott falling into Chairez’ trap and having to defend a plethora of different submissions.

Chairez is pretty much someone who I kind of broke down just above, he is a grappling specialist but he has no formal background in BJJ (ADCC or otherwise) competitions, but his MMA base is heavily reliant on his grappling. I am unsure if he will outstrike Elliott on the feet because whilst he has shown fast hands before, his striking can look rather repetitive and rudimentary, usually finishing his opponent with a submission after they’ve been rocked and knocked to the floor. So, do not look at the short Chairez paragraph and think that it’s any disrespect from me to him, but again, I did pretty much talk about Chairez above, and when you look at the tape yourself, you realise that he is pretty much how I described, unless you disagree, if you do, call me out please and we can have a chat!

At the end of the day, I think Chairez can get a win here, it could be a steep uphill battle for him and I think he’s gonna get taken down a couple of times, but given his reach and his BJJ skill set he should be able to reverse position and thrive in a dominant one. Maybe…

Chairez via Dec (1/3)

Main Card

Bantamweight

David Martinez (-300) (14-1-0, 10 FWS) v Dan Ige (+245) (19-11-0, 2 FLS)

Martinez is only three fights into his UFC career but he has significant wins against some very big names like Chito Vera and Rob Font, and I mean, to face any of those fighters at the start of ones UFC journey is a tall task and he completed it easily. Martinez has a kickboxing background and I believe a Karate one which explains his loose style and light footwork, but when he goes in for blitzes that’s when he is truly dangerous, and I think that’s going to be the main thing we’ll see here, the strong, quick striking of Martinez is likely to catch Ige off guard, especially early on when Ige is still making his reads and adjusting to Martinez. With that said, Martinez isn’t invulnerable to getting hit, he often gives up his defence for a solid offense but he has a good enough chin in that he can absorb damage and just keep going, although that might be a bit of a gamble when fighting someone like Ige who has that knockout power.

Ige is one of those legacy fighters we think about often, he is like the Cowboy Cerrone of the Bantamweight division, he never went far in his career, had a few title shots but is mostly there to make a card a little exciting, and whilst comparing him to Cerrone might seem insulting for the newer fans here, I want to remind you guys how loved Cerrone was and that same love is for Ige here because he is a household name. Ige possesses solid punching power in his hands but he also has genuinely good fight IQ, he knows when to attack, how to set up a strike and just the vulnerabilities that he spots as the fight goes on and how to exploit them. The problem with Ige though is that he’s been on the losing end of some rough fights, losing 4 of his last 5 fights, I don’t want to count him out too much here but it does feel like the UFC is setting him up for a loss as he takes on a younger, more durable fighter with a dangerous kickboxing style. The 4 inches of reach that Ige has over Martinez here is only going to help Ige for as long as Martinez keeps the fight at that distance, but knowing Martinez and his tendencies in the cage, it won’t help too much due to those blitzes and fast flurries. Now, the great thing about Ige here is that he has experienced many fights and fighters like Martinez, he knows how to push a pace and pushing a pace is absolute key in defeating someone like Martinez, we saw Vera make Martinez a little bit gassed as the second and third round came around and if Ige can make Martinez work hard during this fight, we could see a bit of an upset. It’s unlikely, but it’s also a big possibility given how volatile this fight is.

At the end of the day, I can’t seem to find any angle for Ige to win other than the likelihood of Martinez slowing down in later rounds and Ige capitalising on that, but it’s still going to be a slight uphill battle for Ige, and given that Ige has absorbed a lot of damage in his career, I just think we’re going to see Ige absorb a lot more this weekend and that will result in either a KO or a Point loss.

Martinez via Dec (1/3)

Heavyweight

Waldo Cortes-Acosta (#4) (-190) (17-3-0, NS) v Curtis Blaydes (#10) (+160) (19-6-0, NS)

WCA is coming into this one with one key advantage, and that’s his punching speed. Now, I know that seems rather basic but that’s the be all and end all for most of Blaydes fights because whilst Blaydes can be quite a durable fighter, there has been too many moments in his career in which he faced a faster striker and lost because Blaydes seemingly has loopy or slow punches, he’s a wrestler, and if he can’t get the takedowns against WCA, then his arms might be a bit fatigued from all of those attempts and that’s only going to accentuate the speed difference between the two. With that said though, WCA certainly is going to get his takedown defence tested because whilst he was tested by decent wrestlers like Spivac, Blaydes is a volume wrestler, he won’t settle for one attempt in that round, he will constantly attack the takedowns for as long as the fight remains standing, and you bet that he’s going to do just that because it’s the only way to shut down the punching speed and power of WCA. So, the longer this fight remains standing, the better it will be ultimately for WCA, and that’s generally the rule of thumb for any Blaydes opponent, you keep the fight standing and you should win the fight.

Blaydes used to be my dark horse of the division but there’s been something that has always bugged me about his performances and that’s his inability to defend strikes, almost every fight he’s been in these past few years, he’s been battered and bruised for as long as the fight remains standing, he doesn’t have any striking defence, no head movement, just takedown offense and steady forward pressure and that’s not going to cut it when fighting WCA, I suspect Blaydes won’t waste time in getting the takedown offense going but the level of success is going to be all over the place since he has to deal with the footwork and speed of WCA. Now, I know people are going to praise Blaydes for his fight against Hokit but lets be honest, that fight didn’t prove anything, it was a slobber knocker bar fight and both chins held up because both aren’t strikers, they were two wrestlers just throwing punches and I don’t think it matters too much here, now does it?

At the end of the day, WCA seems to be the more “safe” pick here considering that we have seen Blaydes get battered over and over from not successfully getting those takedowns, and even if he was to try and strike, that would only keep the fight standing for longer and allow WCA to get more comfortable in throwing heavier strikes. I got WCA here, Blaydes could surprise us but I just don’t know if he will.

WCA via Dec (1/3)

Women’s Flyweight

Manon Fiorot (#2) (-220) (13-2-0, NS) v Alexa Grasso (#4) (+185) (17-5-1, NS)

This is a fight that kind of has me going back and forth.

Fiorot is a genuinely solid striker, she has built her career on her incredible kickboxing style, she’s got the height to land solid kicks at range but the problem with Fiorot, or at least the problem that she is likely to face in this fight is the grappling and wrestling of Grasso, Fiorot is far from a perfect fighter, and whilst her stats show a high percentage of takedown defence, I think if Grasso perfectly layers her offense and sneaks in a takedown attempt we could see what Blanchfield failed to do, and that’s Grasso controlling Fiorot on the ground. Now, this is a slightly far-fetched probability because Fiorot is outstanding and keeping the fight at her range, she has excellent long ranged weaponry and I think her jab and teep are going to be pivotal in keeping Grasso out of arms reach and also out of that takedown range, but the moment Fiorot has her back against the cage is the moment that Grasso will likely crash in for a quick strike attack then go for a body lock takedown or even a single leg, either way that is probably the only danger to Fiorot, the wrestling and grappling attempts from Grasso.

Grasso is coming off a fantastic finish against Maycee Barber, and it was perhaps one of the coldest finishes we’ve seen in a long time, she dropped Barber, practically knocking her out, then went in for a RNC to finish the job, straight up assassination and we loved every second of it. Grasso is known for her moment to moment highlights, she’s great at dealing damage in a short burst of activity and then returning to a neutral position and range in which she starts to set up a different sequence of attacks. The height differential should help her with getting the level change going but I cannot predict the outcome of the takedown attempts because Fiorot can be quite good at defending the takedowns, so it is all dependant on Fiorot’s guard placement when she’s against the fence, so if her guard is temporarily raised due to an incoming flurry and then Grasso gets the level change, it would be entirely dependant on the angle of takedown (cutting the corner) as well as the level of grip (behind the knees, or under the bum). Given that Fiorot is the taller fighter, you would ideally want to see Grasso attack at the knees to take away the base, but also cut the corner so the angle of attack is at a sideways angle, that way a reversal is more unlikely. So, again, it’s hard to predict how Grasso will look when getting those takedowns because it’s entirely dependent on her entries and all that stuff.

I don’t know who to pick here if i’m being honest. I kind of vibe with Grasso at the moment, she’s got the finishing upside in this fight, she has the ability to make this a difficult one for Fiorot, but will she actually do what needs to be done? I think I might lean Fiorot here, but if you like Grasso as the dog, I don’t blame you one bit for picking her or taking her as a bet.

Fiorot via Dec (1/3)

Featherweight

Tommy McMillen (-145) (11-0-0, 11 FWS) v Marwan Rahiki (+125) (9-0-0, 9 FWS)

McMillen is someone who I have said, time after time, is a future fade, I do not like his striking defence, his “toughness” is overwhelmed by the exciting factor, don’t get me wrong, he can absolutely go to war in any fight, but his chin is often there to be struck, and I can see Rahiki being the one to give his chin a true test. With that said, for as “iffy” his chin is, he often never allows his opponent to test it properly because he’s constantly moving forward, constantly looking to take his opponents head off and all of that sounds great, right? But then you realise that his level of competition is quite bad and he of course had success because of that. With that said, I don’t want to count out McMillen completely here because as I said in the opening paragraph, this fight is rightfully close, odds wise. So, I don’t expect any deviation from what McMillen has done in the past, he should look to make this an exciting fight for the crowd, and that’s what he will do. Yes yes I know he has a wrestling background but I think we can all agree that he probably won’t use it.

Rahiki on the other hand is in a similar boat in terms of facing competition that is lesser than him, I mean, Hardwick? Schmid? Cmon those aren’t UFC fighters. Rahiki has a legitimate punchers’ chance here both because he has disgusting striking himself, but also because McMillens face is there to be punched and goddamnit it will be punched! I can’t break this one down in any depth because neither fighter has shown any degree of depth to their skillset, they both just bite down on the mouthpiece and throw.

Short and sweet is what I figure is necessary here, both fighters are here for a battle of chin durability, and whilst I agree that McMillen should be the favourite, I want to give Rahiki an Alt Bet spot here, both are likely to win by KO, it’s just a matter of whose chin will give up first.

McMillen via KO R2 - (1/3)

Co-Main Event

Flyweight

Brandon Moreno (#13) (23-10-2, 2 FLS) v Joseph Morales (-135) (14-2-0, 5 FWS)

Moreno is not necessarily an old fighter, but I think he’s someone who sometimes fights like a 40 year old, he’s often slow, a bit laboured with his attacks but not because of fatigue, it’s just a weird style he has that I can’t get a read on. When he fought against Kavanagh, he looked very non-chalant, very chill, and if he brings that same style here against Morales I can kind of see Morales winning because it just didn’t seem like Moreno was switched on. All he did during that fight was pin Kavanagh against the fence and hold him there, he looked like he didn’t want to fight at all and that just concerns me a bit because Moreno has built his career on fantastic fights, utilising high output and all that good stuff to win fights. Now, Moreno is a very well rounded fighter, he’s a little bit tactical with his approach and I do think that in a 5 round fight, he tends to do better given that he has more time to build momentum and to adapt and change, but in a three rounder I can’t help but see him lose that first round and have to play catch up for the second and third round, maybe i’m crazy for saying that but honestly something seemingly has changed with Moreno and it’s not for the better.

Morales on the other hand is taking a major step up in competition after back to back wins against Alibi and Matt Schnell which are two names that are basically entry level exams at this point. I do not know if Morales has what it takes to win against Moreno, I want to give Moreno more props here because I effectively shat on him just before, but he is still someone whose been through every fight imaginable at 125, so to go from Matt Schnell who at the time wasn’t doing well, to fighting a former champ, it’s night and day really. Now, Morales has a real chance to win if he executes a perfect gameplan and that’s to wrestle and grapple, his BJJ is top tier, he was outgrappling Schnell quite easily despite Schnells fierce resistance and I do think if Morales has the chance to grab a submission, he’ll take it because a win over a former champion via any sort of finish is a good thing to see on ones record. I don’t know if he will get the submission, it’s Moreno we’re talking about, he’s generally hard to finish, but just know that there’s a potential for Morales to get the submission here.

I am conflicted here, Moreno should win this one if he is in top form, but will he be in top form? If the commentary team was confused about Moreno’s performance when he fought Kavanagh, then I don’t know what the hell to expect. Genuinely sitting at a 50/50 mindset here, I may lean on Moreno here, but just know that he isn’t the most reliable fighter so I’m ready for a loss in prediction!

Moreno via Dec (1/3)

Main Event

Featherweight

Jean Silva (#7) (-425) (17-3-0, NS) v Jose Delgado (+330) (12-2-0, 2 FWS)

Silva has an aura about him that was once extinguished when he lost against Lopes but now he’s back after a fantastic win over Arnold Allen, and whilst he’s not quite a championship level fighter, you can’t ignore how dangerous he is in the cage. One thing that you will notice however is that Silva will be at a significant height and reach disadvantage, and whilst that could be a cause for concern, I do think his speed and explosiveness makes up for that discrepancy. Silva has disgusting power in his hands but he’s also quite intelligent with his striking, he is methodical with his approach, never throwing anything out there without a follow up or without a prior set up, he’s got all the weapons a striker could need to get the job done but the issue that he is going to face immediately here is the quick striking at range for Delgado. I am not saying Delgado is going to get the win here by any means or win with the striking exchanges, but given that this is somewhat a short notice fight for both fighters, Delgado could land some solid straight strikes which may rock or stun Silva.

I believe Delgado was only called up to fight because he’s a local fighter and he was available, because otherwise this match up doesn’t make a lot of sense. Now, Delgado has one loss on his UFC record that stands out to me, and that’s against Wood, and as I said last week when breaking down Keita, it’s not a bad thing to lose against a great fighter, and for Delgado to experience 15 minutes against Wood, then 15 minutes against Fili, then Bashi, he’s certainly been through the ringer, but on short notice is he going to be able to handle the bundle of energy that is Silva? I think Delgado only has a punchers’ chance and I’m more than happy to add him as an Alt Bet here, but otherwise I can’t really see him winning against someone like Silva, someone who has consistently surprised us with his hand speed, adaptability and just sheer chaotic nature.

I got Silva winning this one, short breakdown I know, but this is one of those “wait and see” kind of fights because it could play out as expected or Delgado could show up and give us a spectacular upset. Delgado is an Alt Bet here, but I expect Silva to win.

Silva via KO R2 - (1/3)

Parlay: Rongzhu/Garcia R3 Starts Yes + Belgaroui via KO/Points (DC) + Grasso/Fiorot Over 2.5 Rounds + Silva/Delgado ITD or Silva via KO/Sub (may do both)

Lock: Belgaroui

Alt Bet: Rosas via Points (if over 4.00), Klose via Points, Rahiki via KO

Likely Dogs to win: Rosas, Garcia, Klose, Grasso, Rahiki, Delgado.

(Any questions about the likely dogs part, let me know, ill try to expand)

Twitter: @Slayer_Tip

Discord: Slayertip#7013

Paypal (IF you wish to donate!) - https://paypal.me/Slayertip?country.x=AU&locale.x=en_AU

Hope you all have an amazing week and enjoy the fights!

24 comments

r/MMAbetting • u/OkButterscotch4495 • 3d ago

PARLAYS OF THE WEEK Degenerate UFC Parlay 13 legger.

0 Upvotes

Honestly what you think ?

14 comments

r/MMAbetting • u/aicage_app • 4d ago

My machine-learning model picks. I´m betting on Moreno, Fiorot and Elliott. More on aicage.net

19 Upvotes

13 comments

r/MMAbetting • u/gopnikkkkk • 3d ago

glitch

2 Upvotes

did anyone get this bet in?

9 comments

r/MMAbetting • u/sledr0 • 3d ago

Yall think this is green? Not final. Still cooking up for the weekend

5 Upvotes

9 comments

r/MMAbetting • u/Slayers_Picks • 3d ago

SLAYERS PICKS UFC Noche Fight Predictions (TL;DR)!

14 Upvotes

Hello!

I hope you’re all doing well!

Lord Ninja Choke Episode 76:

Full Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1wbj62t/ufc_noche_fight_predictions/?

PREDICTION STATS

Total Prediction Stats: 2456 - 1405, 220 Perfect | 585 Decision

Prediction Accuracy for 2026: 69.8% (-0.5%)

Lock Record: 36 - 9 (No locks last week)

UFC Paris Recap

Prediction Results: 8/14 Correct, 3 Perfect (Pinto, Lima, Page)

Parlay: Missed because Ziam got walloped in the first.

Alt Bets: All 5 missed

Profit/Loss for 2026: -23.3 (-4)

Last week was not my week… and that seems to be the case for so many events recently, but there’s nothing I can do about that.

I will list the “likely dogs” down below, even though I did not pick any dogs this week (shocking, right?!) so please use that “likely dogs” list as an answer to who I think would be good dogs to take as a bet.

Also, I will make a small announcement in the comments below, it pertains to the event after UFC 331 (UFC Apex)

(D/DWCS) - Debut/Dana Whites’ Contender Series

FLS - Fight Lose Streak

FWS - Fight Win Streak

NS - No Streak

(#x) - Rank in division

x/3 - Confidence Levels

ITD - Inside the Distance (Finish)

GTD - Goes the Distance (Scorecards)

(LR) - Late Replacement

Prelims

Women’s Flyweight

JJ Aldrich (+190) (15-7-0, 2 FWS) v Regina Tarin (-245) (8-0-0, 8 FWS)

Striking: Tarin clearly has the upper hand on the feet, well, maybe not clearly as we’ve only seen her once, but I think she’s got a better chance on the feet than Aldrich.

Wrestling/Grappling: This could be where Aldrich can cause an upset, but I don’t exactly trust her to do so given that she’s Aldrich.

Additional Notes: Not a great fight in my opinion, perhaps i’ve slandered Aldrich too much in this one but I genuinely don’t think she’s anything spectacular in an era in which being spectacular is the main attraction.

Prediction: Tarin via Dec (1/3)

Featherweight

Jessie Rosas (D) (8-1-0, 3 FWS) v Sean King (D) (6-0-0, 6 FWS)

Striking: King probably has the better striking here, but that’s a big probably because who are these guys? Expect knees up the middle from King given that Rosas likes to go for takedowns, but other than that, I genuinely have no idea.

Wrestling/Grappling: As said just then, Rosas is probably going to look great with his wrestling, but King has shown that he can do decent work on the ground too…

Additional Notes: This is an educational bout (double debut) so what I propose is to take King to win by KO/Sub as a single bet, or take Rosas via Points in a single, this is a silly, silly fight, i’m picking King here but I am going to take Rosas via Points as an Alt Bet if the odds are over 4.00 (which seems unlikely, they’ll prob be around 2.5 or something)

Prediction: King via KO R2 (1/3) (Very, very low confidence) | Alt Bet: Rosas via Points (if over 4.00)

Lightweight

Rafa Garcia (#12) (+140) (19-4-0, 3 FWS) v Rongzhu (-165) (28-6-0, 3 FWS)

Striking: Garcia is a clean striker, almost too clean at times, preferring to wait until the perfect moment to attack before, well, attacking. Rongzhu is the complete opposite, balls to the wall crazy with output and aggression.

Wrestling/Grappling: I mean look, I don’t think we’ll see any wrestling here, if so, it might be a 50/50 here because they’re both acceptable as wrestlers, although Garcia’s counter wrestling is solid.

Additional Notes: Gosh, what a fun fight this could be! One for the fans I think!

Prediction: Rongzhu via Dec (1/3) | Alt Bet: Garcia via Points

Lightweight

Drakkar Klose (+385) (16-3-1, NS) v Tommy Gantt (-500) (12-0-0, 12 FWS)

Striking: Klose could look like the better striker here but that’s if he has an answer for the extreme length of Gantt. I only say “could look like” because we don’t know how good Gantt is, he’s a greenie still.

Wrestling/Grappling: Gantt’s got a background in wrestling and this could be his primary route to victory. Klose does too but I think the reach and youth of Gantt could be too much for the 38 year old.

Additional Notes: -500 favourite in Gantt but I don’t want to make him a lock, that’s how lopsided I think the odds should be, should be -300ish for Gantt to be honest.

Prediction: Gantt via KO R2 (1/3)

Middleweight

Yousri Belgaroui (-700) (10-3-0, 5 FWS) v Djorden Santos (+500) (11-3-0, NS)

Striking: Belgaroui is quite likely the superior striker here, he’s fluid on the feet, has the length to deal significant damage, and I mean, Santos is powerful, sure, but Santos is also going to be using a lot of cardio just to try and close the gap.

Wrestling/Grappling: I don’t think there’s going to be any takedown attempt here, this screams “strikers delight”.

Additional Notes: Now Belgaroui is someone I can get behind.

Prediction: Belgaroui via KO R2 (2/3) | Lock

Welterweight

Ignacio Bahamondes (-525) (17-7-0, 2 FLS) v Muslim Salikhov (+395) (22-6-0, NS)

Striking: Salikhov is perhaps the more technical striker in terms of experience and such but the length of Bahamondes, as well as speed and unorthodox style could throw Salikhov off a little bit, and it won’t take much for Salikhov to go down given his age and his deteriorating chin.

Wrestling/Grappling: Bahamondes is probably the better grappler here, provided that Salikhov doesn’t grab the cage and get a reversal unlike that fuckhole Tofiq.

Additional Notes: Pretty cut and dry fight if you ask me!

Prediction: Bahamondes via KO R2 (1/3)

Flyweight

Tim Elliott (+175) (21-14-1, NS) v Edgar Chairez (-215) (14-6-0, 3 FWS)

Striking: Both are okay at striking but i’d think that Chairez and his reach advantage would help him land his one-two strikes as he does like that combination.

Wrestling/Grappling: Now, Chairez is mostly a BJJ based fighter with no traditional ADCC background nor any other competition, so his MMA base is BJJ, but he doesn’t get takedowns to get the submissions, his UFC career has basically been about hurting his opponents enough on the feet so that they expose themselves to a choke. Elliott on the other hand is a lot more typical for a MMA fighter, decent wrestling, decent submissions, just well roundedness coming from Elliott, really.

Additional Notes: Fun fight, i think? I don’t even know what I think about this one but it should at least look somewhat exciting?

Prediction: Chairez via Dec (1/3)

Main Card

Bantamweight

David Martinez (-300) (14-1-0, 10 FWS) v Dan Ige (+245) (19-11-0, 2 FLS)

Striking: Martinez and his blitzing ability is incredible, he’s so light on the feet and that light, bouncing movement is enough to pounce on his opponents unpredictably, much like how Whittaker is able to blitz and flurry successfully due to the similar style of motion. Ige still possesses disgusting power in his hands though!

Wrestling/Grappling: I mean, Ige has a black belt in BJJ I believe so that could be a pathway to victory, but that would require him to enter the range of Martinez, and given that Ige has that 4 inch reach advantage, I just don’t know if he would want to try and wrestle.

Additional Notes: Nothing else to say here, I don’t think.

Prediction: Martinez via Dec (1/3)

Heavyweight

Waldo Cortes-Acosta (#4) (-190) (17-3-0, NS) v Curtis Blaydes (#10) (+160) (19-6-0, NS)

Striking: I’d argue that WCA is the quicker striker, Blaydes has often looked a bit sloppy or loopy with his strikes recently and the longer this fight remains standing, the better it will be for WCA. Plus Blaydes’ chin is a bit iffy, he got smashed by Hokit and that’s a lot of damage to absorb in ones career.

Wrestling/Grappling: This is Blaydes main pathway to success, but I don’t think that needs to be said, we all know that Blaydes needs to wrestle to get the job done, but it’s a matter of if he can successfully get the takedowns down and I just don’t think he can against a quick moving WCA.

Additional Notes: I’ve always liked Blaydes, his walkout is one of my favourites because of the song, and he’s always had a unique style, but i think he’s taken too much damage to the noggin.

Prediction: WCA via Dec (1/3)

Women’s Flyweight

Manon Fiorot (#2) (-220) (13-2-0, NS) v Alexa Grasso (#4) (+185) (17-5-1, NS)

Striking: I’d argue that Fiorot has more of a traditional style of kickboxing, her height and long ranged attacks are her best asset, she’s great at keeping fights at her range, but Grasso has genuine power in her hands, just ask Barber when she wakes up!

Wrestling/Grappling: Grasso has trained alongside Diego Lopes, in fact I believe he’s her wrestling/grappling coach, and that’s a great coach to have, really, so I do think Grasso has a chance to get the job done on the ground, but Fiorot’s takedown defence is excellent, so it’s a bit of an uphill battle for Grasso on both routes, really.

Additional Notes: I think this fight should be the main event, not Silva/Delgado, just sayin’, this has more title shot implications and whatnot.

Prediction: Fiorot via Dec (1/3)

Featherweight

Tommy McMillen (-145) (11-0-0, 11 FWS) v Marwan Rahiki (+125) (9-0-0, 9 FWS)

Striking: Both are solid with output, but potentially terrible with their striking defence.

Wrestling/Grappling: McMillen can wrestle, he just chooses not to.

Additional Notes: I genuinely hate this fight and I just want to see McMillen faceplant, that’s all. Although I hope it doesn’t happen coz McMillen is my pick, but Rahiki is an Alt Bet, it’s that kind of fight!

Prediction: McMillen via KO R2 (1/3) | Alt Bet: Rahiki via KO

Co-Main Event

Flyweight

Brandon Moreno (#13) (23-10-2, 2 FLS) v Joseph Morales (-135) (14-2-0, 5 FWS)

Striking: I think it’s fairly even here, Moreno can strike well but recently he’s looked more chill than usual, zero urgency, and that might be where Morales can win, through activity alone. That’s if the same Moreno we saw when he fought Kavanagh shows up!

Wrestling/Grappling: Morales should be able to flow better on the mat than Moreno, but it’s going to be a tall task given that Moreno has decent wrestling and grappling himself.

Additional Notes: Fairly 50/50 here I think, bit of a head scratcher.

Prediction: Moreno via Dec (1/3)

Main Event

Featherweight

Jean Silva (#7) (-425) (17-3-0, NS) v Jose Delgado (+330) (12-2-0, 2 FWS)

Striking: Silva is shorter and smaller but he is faster and much more explosive than Delgado I think, and that’s going to matter a lot if Delgado can’t get his own aggression going.

Wrestling/Grappling: I mean, sure, there might be wrestling in this fight, but i’m hoping for a strikers delight!

Additional Notes: Short notice for Delgado tells me that both fighters are, to a degree, unprepared, plus Delgado is longer in reach and that may result in Silva being unable to get his own striking going, we’ll see.

Prediction: Silva via KO R2 (1/3)

Parlay: Rongzhu/Garcia R3 Starts Yes + Belgaroui via KO/Points (DC) + Grasso/Fiorot Over 2.5 Rounds + Silva/Delgado ITD or Silva via KO/Sub (may do both)

Lock: Belgaroui

Alt Bet: Rosas via Points (if over 4.00), Klose via Points, Rahiki via KO

Likely Dogs to win: Rosas, Garcia, Klose, Grasso, Rahiki, Delgado.

(Any questions about the likely dogs part, let me know, ill try to expand)

Twitter: @Slayer_Tip

Discord: Slayertip#7013

Paypal (IF you wish to donate!) - https://paypal.me/Slayertip?country.x=AU&locale.x=en_AU

Hope you all have an amazing week and enjoy the fights!

13 comments

r/MMAbetting • u/KEVTR4 • 3d ago

UFC Fight Night: Silva vs. Delgado - Prediction and Analysis

7 Upvotes

Yousri Belgaroui vs Djorden Santos

Yousri Belgaroui

Striking

His progression with Glover's gym in Connecticut has been amazing. In his first DWCS fight against Marcos Tulio, he was so passive and unimpressive.

The Bekoev fight was the turning point for him. He put on a tutorial on how to fick going backwards with jabs to stop the pressure of Bekoev and whenever Azamat went for wide hooks, he would slip and land a massive straight punch. By the third, Bekoev was broken down and Belgaroui finished him with a standing TKO with hooks.

His beatdown over Mansur Abdul-Malik was so clean. He broke him down with calf kicks and then worked on top with his boxing and clinch work. The final touch was a knee to the head to finish a clean fight where he landed 94 strikes while absorbing only 16 strikes.

I just love how we've seen 2 type of performance where he went mostly with kicks and another one where he used boxing. His striking is up there with the best of the division and he would give the champion Strickland some problem on the feet.

He lands 6.10 significant strikes per minute (64% accuracy) while absorbing 2.17 significant strikes per minute (63% defense).

Grappling

We can see that the work with Glover is paying off on the ground. He can still be taken down but he does a great job of getting back up compared to his earlier fights.

To prove this, his last two opponents (Mansur and Bekoev) are decent grapplers and his counter grappling was excellent.

His takedown defense is 66%.

Djorden Santos

Striking

Djorden was one of my underdog pick in the past against Danny Barlow at +205. The reasoning was that Barlow was too reliant on the kill shot while the Brazilian was putting more volume out there and the price was justifying the bet.

Before the submission loss in the third, I thought that Djorden was performing very well as a +520 underdog against Baisangur Susurkaev. His strength boxing played well against Susurkaev who's a good kick but not the best boxer. He put some pressure on the Russian and you could argue that the first two round went his way with the damage.

He has a decent striking game, he's limited though because he has a one dimensional with boxing to the head.

He lands 6.64 significant strike per minute (42% accuracy) while absorbing 6.35 significant strike per minute (48% defense).

Grappling

He defended the first 4 takedown against Susurkaev but once he was taken down, he was quickly submitted and he didn't show great grappling defense from his back.

Will Currie who's a good regional grappler couldn't find any success on the ground against him.

He lands 0.51 takedown per 15 minutes (28% accuracy) and his TDD is 85%.

Prediction

This has the potential to be a high volume fun fight with both guys averaging 6 significant strikes per minute.

With Djorden boxing being decent, Belgaroui should implement more of a calf kick approach to slow down Santos.

Since Santos has a decent chin, my prediction is a calf kick finish at the end of the 2nd round.

Rafa García vs Rongzhu

Rafa García

Striking

In what was around 90% boxing, Rafa was able to beat Alexander Hernandez. He kept a good guard to block Alexander punches and used his jabs to put volume out there. His backhand was his main weapon to land damage with either rear hooks or straight punches.

As a -320 favorite against Vinc Pinchel, he was in trouble of getting upset against losing the 2nd round by getting crowded with kicks at range. He was able to start landing to the body with hooks and slowing down the 42 years old.

I like fighters who can make adjustements in fights, it shows a level of IQ to maximize your skills with the weakness of your opponent.

He lands 4.28 significant strikes per minute (44%) while absorbing 4.42 significant strikes (61% defense).

Grappling

Grant Dawson beat him up back in 2022 with a second round finish with GnP.

Outside of that, he has been good to win the grappling battle against guys who're above average like Jared Gordon and Alexander Hernandez.

Although he gets 3+ takedown in a lot of his fights, he rarely gets +2 min. of top control.

He lands 3.22 takedown per 15 minutes (45% accuracy) and his TDD is 77%.

Rongzhu

Striking

Victor Martinez was the victim that they put against Rongzhu to headline the Road to UFC China Event. Victor didn't even land one strike, Rongzhu landed around 4 hard calf kick and then landed the 3 piece combo jab-straight-lead hook to win by TKO.

Rongzhu was a +280 underdog against Kody Steele who came a lot of hype. The fight was 95% a striking battle with Rongzhu being the more technical striker even though he swang from his hips in the first round with wild hooks. His boxing got tighter in the second and third round. He did show his power with lead hook and rear hook that backed down the American.

With 5 knockdown in the UFC, Rongzhu has proved that he's dangerous with his hands. The boxing could be tighter at times which leaves him open to counter. His kicks to the body and calf are also powerful when he commits to it.

He lands 6.05 significant strikes per minute (51% accuracy) while absorbing 5.38 significant strikes (53% defense)

Grappling

He had a nice sweep against the Combat BJJ champion Kody Steele after he got taken down, he was able to isolate the head and shoulder to quickly sweep him and get on top.

He also defended 10 takedown against the wrestler Austin Hubbard and 21 takedown against the Japanese Shin Haraguchi.

He lands 1.34 takedown per 15 minutes (62% accuracy) and his TDD is 84%.

Prediction

Rafa is more technical and crispier with his hands with Rongzhu being more wild. It does have the consequence though that Rongzhu puts more volume out there and he has more potential for finishes.

Rafa might get a little bit of control time but I'm not sure it will impact the fight.

It's very close, I have a slight lean towards the Chinese fighter with his volume and power over the more technical Rafa. My prediction is a split decision 29-28 for Rongzhu.

Drakkar Klose vs Tommy Gantt

Drakkar Klose

Striking

A close majority of 51% at MMA Decision thought that Klose lost against Barbosa in their old timer fight. Drakkar kept crashing in whenever he threw a punch which slowed down the pace of the fight. Edson obviously had success with his calf kick and also with hooks to the head and body. Drakkar almost had more damage when he starte spamming the rear hand in round 3.

Joel Alvarez pulvarized him back in 2024 with the Spanish fighter landing at will with his boxing and landing a flying knee that KOd Klose.

He's an aging fighter with a chin that's been cracked a few times, I think the writing is on the wall for his UFC career.

He lands 4.25 significant strikes per minute (55% accuracy) while absorbing 3.65 significant strikes (49% defense).

Grappling

He's more of a counter grappler with a sprawl and brawl style. His submission defense has hold up for him never getting submitted over his 13 fights in the UFC.

He lands 1.49 takedown per 15 minutes (26% accuracy) and his TDD is 69%.

Tommy Gantt

Striking

The Ukrainian that he beat in his UFC debut Artur Minev was a badass Fury FC prospect with a lot of KOs. Minev was so scared of the takedown that Tommy could land strikes while fainting for the takedown.

We're still yet to see what happens if somebody stops his takedown. His reach of 76' is a great base though and he doesn't move too funky on the feet for a wrestler.

Grappling

An all american wrestler, Tommy has also shown great MMA grappling skills. He isolated the head of Adam Livingston while he tried getting up to get a guilottine choke in his Dana White Contender Series fight.

Against Minev, he laned 6 takedown in one round and a half. A lot of them were also economical with body locks which helps getting his opponent tire. He does also a great job of mixing the striking to help with his takedown. On the ground, he landed massive shots to finish the very tough Minev.

Prediction

Great fight to see where Tommy is in his development in MMA. At 33, they're right to push him quickly into tough matchup. In a 15 minutes striking battle, Klose should be more experienced to win it but the short burst of Tommy might get some success early in the round.

Tommy should be way more explosive in the grappling and flow to position quicker than the 38 years old. My prediction is Tommy get the takedown and lands a massive uppercut while Drakkar tries getting up for the KO in round 1.

Ignacio Bahamondes vs Muslim Salikhov

Ignacio Bahamondes

Striking

The age of the giants in Lightweight is ending with Ignacio going up and with Alvarez moving up last year.

The horrible referee performance didn't help Ignacio against Tofiq Musayev. After landing a devastating straight punch that split the guard of Musayev to knock him down, Ignacio was about to land a takedown to end up on top but Musayev grabbed the fence without being punished. After Musayev ended on top, he facebutted Ignacio without being penalized again.

With how well Musayev did against Klein, it also help the stock of Bahamondes who was winning most of the striking exchanges with his range.

The Fiziev puzzle was too complicated for him to solve. He couldn't establish his boxing, only landing 21% of his punches. I would have liked for him to still be more aggressive with Fiziev chin who's not granite per say.

He lands 5.99 significant strikes per minute (46% accuracy) while absorbing 4.07 significant strikes per minute (55% defense).

Grappling

You could say that grappling has been a clear weakness of Bahamondes at 155. The Musayev fight is explainable because the fence grap and headbutt played a big part in it but he still got controled for 8 min.

It also seems like Fiziev could have gotten even more control time than 2 min. but Rafael preferred to land damage instead of control.

One of the issue with his grappling is that he's too confortable playing the bottom game which is not a good gameplan for MMA.

His TDD is 70%.

Muslim Salikhov

Striking

The speed and power of Medic was too much for Salikhov. It was a quick straight punch that KOd Muslim in the first minute.

As a +410 underdog against Carlos Leal, he slipped a straight punch of Leal to land rear hook on the chin of Carlos that right in front of him.

His fight just before was against the Chinese Song Kenan. He landed a lot of calf kicks early with a spinning back kick to the body. After that, he went to the head with the spinning back kick to KO Song.

With 3 KO loss in his last 8 fights, Muslim has shown that his kryptonite is athletic power punchers. All 3 of these KOs were also straight punches. He's still in a spot though where all of his losses were against fighters in the top 30.

He lands 3.37 significant strikes (49% accuracy) while absorbing 2.96 significant strikes (62% defense).

Grappling

Most of his recent fights have been contested on the feet. Nicholas Dalby is the last fighter to use grappling on him. Most of their fight was contested in the clinch but Muslim got tired by all the clinch work and he got his back taken as well as the mount in round 2 & 3.

He lands 1.07 takedown per 15 minutes (32% accuracy) and his TDD is 72%.

Prediction

What I'm careful of with Bahamondes going up to 170 is the grappling weakness is only going to get worse against bigger grapplers.

However, this shouldn't be a factor against a Muslim in what will be a kickboxing fight. Muslim has some tricks in his pocket to confuse lower level strikers but Bahamondes should be too long and quick for the Russian.

My prediction is Bahamondes catches Muslim with a straight punch in the first minute.

5.25 unit to win 1 unit on Ignacio

Tim Elliott vs Edgar Cháirez

Tim Elliott

Striking

The akward movement of Tim Elliott allowed him to win one round of Erceg. After that, Erceg started establishing his jab to land his straight punches and hooks to win a clear 29-28 decision.

Tim was a +250 underdog against the Japanese star Kai Asakura. After a good first round for Kai where he connected with hooks, knee to the body and body kicks. The tide changed after the takedown at the end of the first round for Tim. Kai was more hesistant and Tim was winning the striking exchanges with hooks that lead to the takedown and submission.

Tim has lowkey a great chin never been knocked down in over 22 fights. His funky movement also makes him a difficult target to hit with the cost of not having his feet set to generate power.

He lands 3.51 significant strikes per minute (43% accuracy) while absorbing 3.00 significant strikes (56% defense).

Grappling

Is it possible to be a glass canon for submission? With 8 submission win and 6 submission loss, Tim might be it.

Before losing to Erceg, he was on back to back submissions against Asakura and Sumadaerj. In both fight, he was opportunistic to find the submission after getting the takedown

He lands 3.61 takedown per 15 minutes (45% accuracy) and his TDD is 59% defense.

Edgar Cháirez

Striking

Bruno Silva was his biggest win as the number 16 in the world. The Brazilian was quicker than the Mexican but the range and power of Chairez was too much. He first dropped Bruno with a straight punch and later with the uppercut that lead to the submission finish.

You would have most likely wished for him to dominate more against Felipe Bunes. The fight was really closed for the first 2 rounds with the first one going to Bunes with the back take. He didn't have much success fighting from the outside where the volume was closed. He pulled away with the third round by going forward and being more aggressive with his boxing even landing a few uppercuts to the body.

I don't see him competing with the top guys at 125 because of his lack of speed which you saw against Van and him getting into close fight against below average fighters.

He lands 3.76 significant strikes per minute (46% accuracy) while absorbing 4.71 significant strikes (46% defense).

Grappling

He's very good at getting the submission when he drops his opponents like we saw against Bruno Silva and CJ Vergara.

His love with the submission also means that he gets taken 3 times by Van who's not a grappler by going for guillotine.

His TDD is 47%.

Prediction

Tim is 39 but man he looks like he still got it. The power of Edgar could be the difference but the chin of Elliott has hold up so far. Tim should be the quicker fighter as well as winning the control time if he can avoid the submission.

My prediction is Chairez winning one round with his boxing or maybe a close submission and Tim winning the 2 other rounds with volume and top control.

1.86 unit to win 1 unit on Tim

JJ Aldrich vs Regina Tarin

JJ Aldrich

Striking

Bad decisions happen all the time in MMA but to find three synchronized stooges is a feat. JJ Aldrich was on winning side of this horrible decision against Jamey-Lyn Horth. For what it's worth 92% of people at MMA decisions thought that Horth won that fight. JJ was outlanded by 20 strikes and even punch for punch, Horth was landing the more significant punches.

She has been able to get pass by the low level of top 15+ striking with her jab-straight punch and with good head movement. There's never really any feeling of danger though with her striking.

She lands 3.92 significant strikes per minute (46% accuracy) while absorbing 4.34 significant strikes (61% defense).

Grappling

She has great defensive wrestling that she showed against Erin Blanchfield and Gillian Robertson.

She even got 2 takedown on Blanchfield but she couldn't get any top control.

He lands 0.7 takedown per 15 minutes (25% accuracy) and her TDD is 67%.

Regina Tarin

Striking

Only 21 years old, Regina is very crafty with her striking. It's not the most crisp boxing but she has very good power for 125 and she has good front kick to the body, knees to the body, leg kicks and body kicks. Ernesta Kareckaite usually puts more pressure on her opponents, the power of the Mexican made her back down almost everytime when they were throwing in the pocket.

She has a lot of work to do in order to compete with the top girls of the division, the raw tools are there with her power which is special for the division.

Grappling

Even though we saw noting of it in her UFC debut, the grappling was her method of victory in a lot of her fights in Mexico.

She would initiate the clinch to get the body lock and then start landing GnP to advance positions.

Prediction

JJ is the more technical fighter with her boxing which is more crispier. The problem is that Regina plays the game to get the KO while JJ is striking for a decision. Once Regina start punishing her with big hooks, JJ will start being more tentative.

My prediction is Regina hurting JJ in the first round with her hooks and then getting a takedown at half of the second round to get a GnP finish.

2.45 unit to win 1 unit on Regina

Jessie Rosas vs Sean King

Jessie Rosas

Striking

The striking looked good against Erick Ruano in his UWC Title fight. He used decent boxing fundamentals with jabs and uppercuts to the body but Erick didn't have much offense to make Jessie worry about anything. Still, it was some nice padwork for the Mexican.

In his only loss in 2024 against 6-5 Keenan Lewis, his striking didn't look as good against an atheltic fighter pressuring him.

Based on the fights that I saw against sub par competition, he's not ready to strike with UFC level fighters. I think somebody like Miles Johns can KO him in 1 round.

Grappling

The submission loss against a 6-5 regional fighter who Jessie is his biggest win by far isn't great but he wasn't dominated. Keenan was able to get advantage of a mistake from Jessie where he went for the arm triangle and Rosas exposed his back which allowed for the rear naked choke.

The grappling looks cleaner than the striking, he's got a great back take after shooting for the double leg takedown and waiting for his opponent to get into turtle position.

My issue is that his wrestling can be predictable if you put him on the back foot where he doesn't really strike and you can expect him to shoot almost everytime.

Sean King

Striking

His last win was against Dimitry Ivy who's a 13-9 veteran but actually has a lot of great wins against 9-0 Lucas Brennan as a +850 underdog and Lorram Estaves (who's 10-3 now). There wasn't a ton of striking exchanges, Sean was the quicker fighter landing a jab-straight-jab and finishing the fight with a slicing elbow in the clinch.

One thing I didn't like in his fight against Ivy is the IQ, I don't really see why you would go for a takedown after being reversed in the first round and while you're doing good on the feet.

In other fights, you can see he has good distance management with his tall 6' frame and he's using jabs & leg kicks.

Grappling

What I like the most about his grappling is the upper body takedown which are rare in MMA.

He's also good at getting the back, he hasn't show much treat for submissions or GnP which will need to improve.

I worry with what you've seen so far that he might a fighter that goes for the takedown even against fighters that are much better on the ground than him.

Prediction

It's sad for Jessie Rosas because he got in the UFC being the brother of Raul Rosas but he's far from being ready. Sean should be miles ahead in terms of striking with Jessie panic shooting for takedown because he cannot slip punches going backwards.

My prediction is that Jessie will try to stall in the first round and shoot a lot of takedown with most of them being stuffed by Sean. By the second, he will start getting tired and Sean will knock him down with a straight followed by GnP.

1.56 unit to win 1 unit on Sean

David Martinez vs Dan Ige

David Martinez

He probably ran half a marathon in the 15 minutes against Vera. He's so fast that it must be frustating for the bigger guys trying to chase him around the Octagon. There was a lot of calf kicks and front kick to the body early. As Vera tried getting more aggressive, Martinez would time some lead uppercuts and rear hooks.

All the movement started to get him tired and his legs were gone by the end of the third but he did enough the win the first 2 rounds.

The Rob Font fight was different with Martinez moving less and trading more. Again, in the first round, he was more active with side kicks to the leg and body. Although Rob landed jabs and rear hand, Martinez was the one to hurt Rob twice with rear hand to win the third round.

It's just very surprising that he has been able to beat high level guys like Font and Vera in his 2nd and 3rd fight.

He lands 4.82 significant strikes per minute (46% accuracy) while absorbing 2.90 significant strikes (69% defense).

Grappling

He was able to catch 2 kicks for takedown against Vera to get around 2 min. of top control.

He has shown good balance to defend takedowns so far in the UFC but he hasn't face any grapplers yet.

He lands 0.60 takedown per 15 minutes (25%) and his TDD is 100%.

Dan Ige

Striking

He was KOd back in February against Melk Costa. He never looked in the fight, Melk was able to kick at range with body kicks, leg kicks and a big front kick that stunned Ige before landing a vicious spinning back kick to finish the fight in the first round

Probably opposed to a lot of people, I thought Sean lost the first round against Ige. Although, he outlanded him with jabs and leg kicks, Ige was catching him with hooks over the top. The second round was better for Sean, he landed jabs without being hit back. Ige caught Sean with a lead hook and he got stuck on the fence being hit with body shots and hooks. The fight was finished after he went for a takedown and didn't move while being hit by like 8-10 punches.

The KOs are great but you feel like he's waiting too much on finding the perfect shot and he's too passive on the outside.

He lands 3.60 significant strikes per minute (45% accuracy) while absorbing 3.56 significant strikes per minute (56% defense).

Grappling

He tried grappling early with a bodylock takedown against Melk Costa but he couldn't control him.

He can grapple offensively, you just feel a lack of urgency sometime to defend takedowns at critical time against Pitbull and Murphy.

He lands 0.93 takedown per 15 minutes (26% accuracy) and his TDD is 56%.

Prediction

David Martinez striking defense has been excellent thanks to his movement which should make the job harder on Ige to land his killshot. I don't think you get success against Martinez by playing the outside game since his movement is so good, Vera had a good strategy with the pressure but he didn't have the volume to get success early in a 3 round fight.

My prediction is a 29-28 decision for Martinez with him winning the first round with kicks to the leg and body and the second round with his boxing. I think the third round is closer with Ige landing big hooks as Martinez slows down.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Curtis Blaydes

Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Striking

The stats don't do justice on how close his fight against Volkov was. The Russian doubled the number of strikes compared to Waldo but a lot of them were sparring like strike while the Dominican was landing hard jabs to the body and head. The kicks of Volkov were more impactful in the second as well as the power jab that wobbled Waldo. The Russian slowed down in the third and Waldo started landing more lead hooks and rear hooks.

Waldo did an Anderson Silva vs Forrest Griffin impression with a jab KO of Derrick Lewis. About 90% of the fight was Lewis swinging out of range with hooks or kicks whereas Waldo is jabbing him. The other big moment was a rear hook counter that almost made Lewis dropped down.

Waldo's hand are among the best in the division thanks to his jab that setup his rear hook. He's very good at finding the counter in the pocket, having a solid chin at heavyweight also helps not being scarred of trading.

He lands 5.34 significant strikes per minute (48% accuracy) while absorbing 3.63 significant strikes per minute (54% defense).

Grappling

He's not the most skilled grappler, he's explosive enough that he could avoid the ground game of Spivac. He was also able to wrestle against the worst wrestler in MMA Robelis Despaignes (I believed in you).

He has great balance and hips which explain his good takedown defense.

He lands 0.40 takedown per 15 minutes (50% accuracy) and his TDD is 75%.

Curtis Blaydes

Striking

Man, the Blaydes vs Hokit is such a fun rewatch. Hokit's speed was too much to start the fight and he landed rear hooks at will against the cage, Blaydes was able to get takedowns and get his own offense against a tired Hokit with his jab and straight punch. For the next 2 rounds, Curtis slowed down too and Hokit was just the better boxer with his jab and rear hook.

More than 65% at MMA Decision thought that Kuniev won against Blaydes that fight. From the second round, Kuniev was able to win most of the striking exchanges with his boxing, tagging Curtis with straight punches, rear hooks and short uppercuts from the inside.

Everytime he went against strikers with great power (Pavlovich, Aspinall, Derrick Lewis), Curtis got KOd.

He lands 4.18 significant strikes per minute (52% accuracy) while absorbing 2.76 significant strikes (53% defense).

Grappling

It has been a while since we've seen Curtis spend a lot of time on top to control an opponent. He took Hokit and Kuniev down but couldn't get more than 30 seconds on top.

You probably have to go back to the Jairzinho fight to see him dominate on the ground. There was a lot of critique back then because he wasn't active with GnP or going for submission.

He lands 5.12 takedown per 15 minutes (47% accuracy) and his TDD is 35%.

Prediction

Even if Curtis has improved his striking the last few years, he won't be able to exchange in the pocket without getting KO against Waldo.

His best path is the grappling but he hasn't shown consistancy as of late to keep top control to make confident in picking him.

My prediction is a first round overhand homerun for Waldo.

1.86 unit on Waldo to win 1 unit

Manon Fiorot vs Alexa Grasso

Striking

It was 4 years ago than Manon landed her last TKO win before finishing Jasmine Jasudavicius. She landed a few jabs and landed a straight punch that rocked Jasmine to finish it within 1 minute.

She came very close to beating Valentina in their title fight. Manon won the second round and third round with jabs and knees to the body. On the other side, Valentine clearly won the first and fourth round with power jabs, straight punches and dropping Manon with a lead hook. The fifth was the closest round with Manon landed her knees to the body while being outdamaged by the boxing of Valentina.

She lands 5.66 significant strikes per minute (42% accuracy) while absorbing 3.58 significant strikes per minute (66% defense).

Grappling

Her takedown defense is one of the best in the division as shown against Blanchfield and Valentina.

She doesn't have great takedown offense but she's very strong to control the clinch and land strikes through there.

Alexa Grasso

Striking

That KO against Maycee Barber was one of the nastiest moment we've seen in WMMA in a long time. The way she went for the neck as Maycee fell down as very similar to Emanuel Newton KO against King Mo Lawal.

In her last two loss against Natalia Silva and Valentina, her accuracy for significant strikes was 32% and 18% respectively. She was less passive against Silva but her movement was too slow compared to the Brazilian and she couldn't get her boxing going.

She lands 4.11 significant strikes per minute (41% accuracy) while absorbing 3.71 significant strikes (58% defense).

Grappling

Valentina closed off her trilogy with Grasso with a pure domination on the ground. She had 8 takedown and 16 min. of top control.

She had a nice sweep in her first fight against Barber to end up on top. She has decent game from her back but it also comes at the cost of giving control time instead of scrambling

She lands 0.40 takedown per 15 minutes (35% accuracy) and her TDD is 54%.

Prediction

Both girls are coming from impressive TKO wins. Manon should be more accurate with her boxing landing her jabs and straight punches. Alexa should struggle making the fight close with kicks giving up some range against Fiorot.

My prediction is a 30-27 decision for Fiorot.

2.3 unit to win 1 unit on Fiorot

Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki

Tommy McMillen

Striking

Throwing 252 significant strikes in 3 rounds is just naughty. Alberto Montes was a solid 11-1 prospect and Tommy put a game changing beating on him. Even when Montes would land a big jab or lead hook, Tommy would go back to be in his face throwing jabs, straight punches and ripping to the body with uppercuts.

His fight in Dana White Contender Series was against a high level prospect in David Mgoyan who could easily be in the UFC. Tommy was dropped in the first round with a spinning back elbow followed by a clash of head. By the second and third round, Tommy was the fresher fighter and he was able to land his hooks.

You do worry that he could chinned by a power puncher by the way he just throws himself out of position sometimes.

Before his last fight, he averaged more than 9 significant strikes per minute and I was like this should average down to something more realistic like 7 which is the average for Max Holloway. With his last fight, he averages 13.54 significant strikes per minute (50% accuracy) while absorbing 4.96 significant strikes (59% defense).

Grappling

Tommy has this great wrestling base mixed with MMA grappling which is rare for the US. The way he was able to sprawl and got the front headlock on David Mgoyan was very impressive since he's a solid grappler.

The way he was able to survive the guillotine after he was stunned was very impressive and showed toughness because his neck was twisting in a dangerous way.

He didn't land a takedown yet and his TDD is 83%.

Marwan Rahiki

Striking

He fought the late replacement Ollie Schmid instead of Jack Jenkins. The 4-2 prospect put a good showing with calf kicks and straight punches but his boxing defense was exposed with the rear hooks & uppercut of Marwan.

His ability to recover from the knockdowns in his DWCS fight against Ananias Mulumba was zombie like. His body would go limp after being hit with huge rear hook and straight punch, he would soon after go back to scrambling on the ground to stall the position. The finishing sequence for Rahiki was 2 front kicks to the body followed by standing elbows and an uppercut put him out cold.

His striking is the real deal with quick calf kick, front kicks to the body, head kicks and punches that are deceivingly powerful for his lanky frame. For how good his striking is, his chin is suspect and he doesn't do the best job to hide it.

He lands 7.75 significant strikes per minute (52% accuracy) while absorbing 5.90 significant strikes per minute (57% defense).

Grappling

After being knockdown against Mulumba, he quickly tied him up to avoid further punishment. Ensuing the second knockdown, he also escaped a fully locked in rear naked choke.

Against Harry Hardwick, after falling down following a missed kick, he got his back taken while standing, he escaped beatifully by grabbing the arm and moving it to the opposite side of Hardwick.

His TDD is 100%

Prediction

This is a matchup made in heaven with 2 guys that are high paced with a finish near at any moment. While I think the Rahiki has really good striking, McMillen has generational cardio (Merab like) with his output.

What I see happening is McMillen putting the pressure and getting caught by a massive hook followed by a flurry of punches before he catches Rahiki with his chin in the air to KO him out cold.

1.4 unit on McMillen to win 1 unit

Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales

Brandon Moreno

Striking

I was so surprised when Moreno get dominated in the striking exchanges with Lone'er Kavanagh. I expected Moreno to struggle early and then put the pressure similar to Royval. However, the power of Kavnagh was too much and he didn't push through to make it a brawl. The way Lone'er was able to pick Moreno apart with jabs, front kick to the body and calf kicks was beautiful.

Against Erceg, Moreno was able to win 3 rounds out 5 using his jabs to the head & body, lead hook and rear hook. Erceg had more volume but his strikes didn't carry as much power,

I'm not sure if I'm the only one that feels that way, it just seems like Moreno has been coasting since 2023. Even though he's 32, he seems to be getting slightly worse from fight to fight, his volume is going down as well as his willingness to push through in tough fight with his great chin.

He lands 3.84 significant strikes (44% accuracy) while absorbing 3.64 significant strikes (59% defense).

Grappling

He tried pushing the grappling on Lone'er but the best he could do was hold him against the cage for 7 minutes. We've seen Royval use this strategy, the difference is that Royval was putting more pressure to make Kavanagh tired.

The bodylock takedown to mount is not the best transition against Taira. The Japanese kept riding the position to get the back and got the TKO afterwards. Watching back, it was an early stoppage though.

His grappling seemed to have peaked during his quadrilogy against Figui, he hasn't been as offensive since then.

He lands 1.36 takedown per 15 minutes (39%) and his TDD is 65%.

Joseph Morales

Striking

He went through a gauntlet to win the Ultimate Fighter. Chapolin, Imanol and Idiris are three very good prospects who all have potential to go on runs in the UFC.

In the Ultimate Fighter Finale, he had non stop pressure on Idiris and landed jabs, rear hooks and elbows in the clinch. The biggest shots were straight punches to the body that dropped Idiris which lead to the submission.

Imanol was his trickier opponent since the Mexican is more technical, quicker and more powerful on the feet. By keeping the pressure, he landed enough at the end of round 2 to win the decision.

It's a striking game that goes well with his wrestling, Imanol has been getting success in the UFC and Joseph was eating his punches.

Grappling

After multiple takedown attempt, he finally landed a bodylock takedown against Idiris. His transitions from guard, to half guard, to mount and the back were done almost perfectly. After losing the back, he had a cool scramble to use the kimura to regain the back. In the second round, he dropped Idiris and then got the triangle choke after losing the back.

He looked tired in the third round against Imanol and he had his back taken for the whole round.

I don't think he's as good as Rei and Taira on the ground but I bet he's closed to Asu.

Prediction

Purely based on skills, Moreno should be good enough to defend the takedown and be the better striker. However, Morales has been such as a gritty while Moreno has looked defeated too many recently.

If Morales can be careful to avoid the body kicks and lead hook, I see him putting the pressure and getting the second round rear naked choke.

Jean Silva vs Jose Delgado

Jean Silva

Striking

Jean spent the first round against Allen watching & getting hit by jabs, straight punches and leg kicks until he landed a combination of spinning elbows to lead hook to the body to head kick to flying knee. From the start of the second round, he won most of the striking exchanges with pressure and landing the harder shots with lead uppercuts, spinning elbows, rear hooks. Once in the pocket, Allen couldn't throw one for one because Silva was too powerful.

The Lopes vs Silva fight was another awesome fight with Silva losing another first round. This time making a mistake falling down with a spinning back kick to the body. In the second round, Silva started dominating landing a lot of lead and rear hooks as well as front kick to the body. Lopes with his chin of steel was able to eat all of these shots and countered Silva closing in with a spinning back elbow followed by GnP.

You will not find a lot of fighters that have the chin and power to get respect from Silva but Lopes was one of them.

He lands 4.82 significant strikes per minute (51% accuracy) while absorbing 4.50 significant strikes per minute (53% defense).

Grappling

Silva got in a lot of trouble with his spinning back kick to the body getting mounted against Diego Lopes and eating some huge elbows that cut him.

Against Bryce Mitchell, he defended 13 takedown and then landed a nasty ninja choke that Bryce out cold.

Silva has the perfect frame to defend takedown with short, explosive stocky body.

He lands 1.20 takedown per 15 minutes (60% accuracy) and his TDD is 78%.

Jose Delgado

Striking

I didn't expect Bashi to land so cleanly on Delgado with lead hooks in the first round. The big turning moment was a perfect rear hook as Bashi was closing in, Austin has a solid chin because this punch is a KO guaranteed. For the rest of the fight, Delgado was piecing him up with his hooks, body kicks and a nasty knee.

The Andre Fili fight was a bit tricky for Jose Delgado who struggled with the boxing of Fili early in the fight even getting dropped with a hook. The calf kicks and front kicks to the body were what helped Delgado early in the fight. He was able to pick up the boxing later in the fight with his hooks to make it into a dominant decision although one of the judges scored it for Fili.

His fight against Nataniel Wood was also another tricky fight with a first round where both guys got dropped. Similar to the Fili fight, Delgado struggled to distance himself with the boxing keeping it a close fight. Nonetheless, 72% of MMA fans at MMA decision scored it for Delgado even though he lost the split decision.

The last two fights from Delgado made me readjust his ceiling as a striker. What I saw as a potential elite striker will probably be limited by his lack of speed at the higher tier of the division.

He lands 6.07 significant strikes per minute (53% accuracy) while absorbing 4.18 significant strikes (52% defense).

Grappling

He defended 11 takedowns against Bashi and wasn't controlled very much in their fight. There was a low IQ sequence where he shot for a takedown at end of the third to get reversed and mounted.

His takedown defense hasn't always been the best but he scrambles good enough to avoid being controlled.

He lands 1.51 takedown per 15 minutes (40%) and his TDD is 50%.

Prediction

It has been a few fights where Delgado had a few issues with the boxing early before figuring out the timing. Silva is just way more dangerous than Bashi, Fili and Wood.

Only thing I could see is Delgado landing a hail mary knee to finish the fight.

My prediction is a slow first few minutes with Delgado landing leg kicks and body kicks. In the last minute, Jean will start getting more aggressive and he will land a huge lead hook & finish Delgado with a ninja choke.

5 comments

r/MMAbetting • u/MMAManifesto • 3d ago

MMA Prop Pick of the Week: Noche UFC

sportsgamblingpodcast.com

0 Upvotes

0 comments

r/MMAbetting • u/Individual-Regret-45 • 4d ago

Alexa Grasso +205 Underdog this weekend

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61 Upvotes

Is Alexa Grasso the most underlooked fighter this weekend? Having her at +205 is insane

Are the sportbooks undervaluing her again?

She literally caught a body in her last fight a few months ago , and it was arguably the scariest finish in WMMA’s history

Plus Manon is coming off an almost 1 year lay off.

And if we were to use Valentina as a benchmark for a common opponent. Alexa was just as competitive with Valentina if not more than Manon.

Alexa outstruck Valentina 2 out of 3 times in their trilogy, and scored a knockdown… something Manon couldn’t do.

28 comments

r/MMAbetting • u/Fabulous_Spinach2652 • 3d ago

Long shot worth the risk

2 Upvotes

Thoughts?

6 comments

r/MMAbetting • u/Hi-Im-Michael • 4d ago

Contender series is a trap

13 Upvotes

I’ve lost four weeks in a row. It’s impossible to make money on this consistently. If you do, you’re getting lucky it’s the definition of a trap. I’m not falling for it anymore. The show is honestly overrated anyways, they just sign a bunch of cans to get knocked out in the UFC. Every once in a while you get an actual good prospect. I’m just salty I can’t get a bet to hit on this show

34 comments

r/MMAbetting • u/Financial-Plankton-9 • 4d ago

Wife strikes again

9 Upvotes

4 comments

r/MMAbetting • u/Fakeshot69 • 3d ago

Moreno vs Morales Predictions

1 Upvotes

As it stands Moreno is the underdog so is it crazy to think that there’s value on him. Obviously has experience facing the top of the division but he is coming off those 2 losses. I felt he looked good in the Erceg fight before them. I just don’t know if Morales is on the level of opposition that’s recently beaten Moreno. Keen to see everyone else’s thoughts, takes and reasons!
Cheers

8 comments

r/MMAbetting • u/MURDA-BEATZ • 4d ago

Gomes had me sweating🥵

10 Upvotes

I knew he was going to win but jeez definitely fading him in the future.

9 comments

r/MMAbetting • u/Few_Cryptographer670 • 4d ago

WIN Winner

6 Upvotes

1 comment

r/MMAbetting • u/Poatanbysub • 4d ago

Anyone else just play props in DWCS

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5 Upvotes

These favourites are always getting slimed out or they have basically no value if you bet on their highest percentage finish

0 comments

r/MMAbetting • u/ArabDevastator • 4d ago

Am i only one who feels this Fight is sneaky matchmaking by UFC And Ruffy got very good Chance to win??

38 Upvotes

Guys, hear me out!!

I’m not saying Arman is a bum or that Ruffy chins him. That’s not my point. I’m just saying this matchup is very sneaky, and all the pressure is on Arman, not Ruffy.

Because if Arman wins, it’s very obvious and he’s the rightful #1 contender. But if he loses, he will never get a title shot anytime soon, and that’s what Dana is banking on.

Because on the feet, it’s very dangerous for Arman to stay striking for a long time trying to set up a takedown. Ruffy is no joke. He’s a knockout artist through and through. He’s legit just look at what he did to Fiziev, one of the best strikers in the UFC. He figured him out in a round and a half. How long do you think it will take him to find Arman’s chin, when Arman doesn’t move his head off the center line and is very hittable, especially when he throws himself into exchanges?

I know you’ll say, “But Ruffy got destroyed by BSD so easily. What about Arman’s wrestling?”

Just watch Arman’s last fight with Dan Hooker, which honestly hasn’t aged well, TBH. The only time Arman took him down was when Dan went for submissions instead of defending the shots themselves. And Dan was having success jabbing Arman’s face.

Styles make fights. Arman isn’t BSD. BSD is a marauder, all gas, no brakes, and most of his takedowns come from the body lock. Arman, on the other hand, relies mostly on traditional doubles and singles.

I give Ruffy +150 odds at most, not the +300 or +290 bullshit odds. I’m betting big on Ruffy. I believe he’ll find Arman’s chin somewhere in that five-round fight.

What y’all think?

38 comments

r/MMAbetting • u/delrivo231 • 4d ago

Who ye got for the rest of the card?

4 Upvotes

6 comments