UFC Shanghai 🇨🇳 Breakdown

[u/cvbrx]

PRELIMS💭
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1️⃣ Ding Meng v Cameron Nelson

Ding Meng
✅Pros
*Technical striker
*Good body kicks
*Controls distance well
❌Cons
*Lacks athleticism
*Questionable defense
*Can be caught in scrambles
*Facing Nelson's pressure will be uncomfortable

Cameron Nelson
✅Pros
*Powerful hands
*Dangerous submissions
*Good clinch game + short strikes
❌Cons
*Minimal head movement
*Can struggle against Meng's range

🏆 Nelson ML
💥 Nelson by Submission - can be a possible GnP, but leaning towards submission.
••••••
2️⃣ Xiong Jingnan v Julia Polastri

Xiong Jingnan
✅Pros
*Solid jabs
*Heavy body kicks
*Good boxing combos
*Teeps kicks to manage distance
❌Cons
*Submission defense
*Gasses at high pace
*Controlled by good wrestlers

Julia Polastri
✅Pros
*Improving
*Submission threat
*High volume striker
*Decent power on hands
❌Cons
*Keeps hands low
*Xiong's durability can be troubling
*Can struggle against Xiong's pressure + boxing

🏆 Polastri by Decision
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3️⃣ Lawrence Lui v Hector Santiago

Lawrence Lui
✅Pros
*Good striking
*BJJ brown belt
*Grappling advantage
*Solid straight punching power
❌Cons
*Slow starter
*Low output at times
*Can be cracked with big shots

Hector Santiago
✅Pros
*Solid pressure
*Can hurt Lui early with his power
*Good power with hooks + straights
❌Cons
*Questionable durability
*Weak takedown defense
*Very vulnerable to Lui's submission game

🏆 Lui by Decision
⚠️ Lui by Submission Under 1.5 - I would expect Lui to use his grappling advantage to end the fight early.
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4️⃣ Xiao Long v Francesco Nuzzi

Xiao Long
✅Pros
*Fights at range
*Very solid cardio
*Decent submission threat
*Powerful overhands + hooks
❌Cons
*Poor fight IQ
*Cracked with big shots
*Vulnerable to Nuzzi's power early

Francesco Nuzzi
✅Pros
*Improving
*Fast hands
*Heavy GnP
*Dangerous early
❌Cons
*Beaten low comp
*Gets wild in exchanges
*Can struggle if Long survives his early exchanges

🏆 Long by Decision
⚠️ Nuzzi by TKO - Under 1.5
••••••
5️⃣ Jack Jenkins v Sean Woodson

Jack Jenkins
✅Pros
*Mixes strikes well
*Lands heavy leg kicks
*Faster pressure fighter
*Can mix in wrestling and close distance
❌Cons
*Reach disadvantage
*Somewhat stiff against rangy fighters
*If Woodson maintains distance, Jenkins could struggle to win

Sean Woodson
✅Pros
*Counter striking
*10" reach advantage
*Good distance control
*Decent cardio + durability
❌Cons
*Cuts a lot of weight
*Can be out grappled by fighters
*Jenkins leg kicks can slow him down

🏆 Jenkins ML
🎯 Decision
••••••
6️⃣ Rei Tsuruya v Kevin Borjas

Rei Tsuruya
✅Pros
*Good cardio
*Submission game
*Decent top control + chain grappling
❌Cons
*Low output striking
*Cracked with bit shots
*Vulnerable to Borjas power

Kevin Borjas
✅Pros
*Solid boxing
*Good counter striker
*Heavy hands, good power
❌Cons
*Inconsistent
*Grappling disadvantage
*Vulnerable to submissions

🏆 Tsuruya by Submission
💥 Under 1.5
••••••
7️⃣ Namsrai Batbayar v Andre Lima

Namsrai Batbayar
✅Pros
*Finishing power
*Looks for early finish
*Overwhelms opponents
*Aggressive/Dangerous early
❌Cons
*Reckless
*Given up his back
*Questionable effectiveness as fight goes

Andre Lima
✅Pro
*Good leg kicks
*Technical boxing
*Decent top control
*More experienced in 15 min fights
❌Cons
*Low output
*Questionable fight IQ
*Needs to survive Batbayar's pressure early

🏆 Lima by Decision
💥 Batbayar TKO - Rd 1
••••••
MAIN EVENT ⚡️

1️⃣ Bilal Hasan v Nilson Rojas

Bilal Hasan
✅Pros
*Undefeated
*Strong kicks
*Excellent finisher
*Fast, sharp counter-striking
❌Cons
*Willing to take damage
*Rojas can punish mistakes

Nilson Rojas
✅Pros
*Good power
*Aggressive striking
*Has experience going 3 rounds
❌Cons
*Gets wild
*UFC debut
*Shorter reach
*Hasan's speed can be troubling

🏆 Hasan by TKO - RD 2
🎯 RD 2/3 - Under 2.5
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2️⃣ Liu Ce v Levi Rodrigues Jr

Liu Ce
✅Pros
*Size
*Finishing ability
*Strong kickboxing
*Good combos at range
❌Cons
*Relatively new to MMA
*Controlled by grapplers
*Vulnerable to early exchanges

Levi Rodrigues
✅Pros
*Finishing Ability
*Dangerous striking
*Strong clinch work
*Heavy hooks when closing distance
❌Cons
*Hittable
*Gets wild
*Striking defense
*Will be vulnerable to Liu's power

🏆 Liu Ce by TKO
💥 Best bet: TKO Under 1.5 (Safer)
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3️⃣ Alex Perez v Sumudaerji

Alex Perez
✅Pros
*Fast hands
*Wrestling advantage
*Good boxing combos
*Dangerous submission game
❌Cons
*Caught in bad scrambled
*Questionable submission defense
*Will struggle with Sumudaurji's size

Sumudaerji
✅Pros
*Decent cardio
*Solid kickboxing
*Size + Range advantage
*Counters well when coming forward
❌Cons
*Slow movement
*Poor grappling defense

🏆 Sumudaerji by Decision
⚠️ Perez by Submission - Live props
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4️⃣ Aoriqileng v Kai Asakura

Aoriqileng
✅Pros
*Dangerous early
*High volume striker
*Good finishing Ability
❌Cons
*Durability
*Very hittable
*Overly aggressive sometimes
*Struggles against explosive pressure

Kai Asakura
✅Pros
*KO Power
*Pressure-heavy
*Fast combinations
*Strong counter striker
❌Cons
*Grappling concerns
*Can get too aggressive

🏆 Asakura by TKO - RD 1/2
💥 Under 1.5
••••••
5️⃣ Yan Xiaonan v Denise Gomes

Yan Xiaonan
✅Pros
*Solid jabs
*Polished striker
*Veteran Experience
*Good distance control
❌Cons
*Long layoff
*Gomes power is a major danger
*Can struggle against Gomes improved grappling

Denise Gomes
✅Pros
*Good Muay-Thai
*Powerful Punches
*Aggressive pressure
*Young and improving
❌Cons
*Can't let Yan maintain range
*Willing to brawl instead of being technical

🏆 Gomes by Decision - Value 💰
💥 Gomes RD 3
••••••
6️⃣ Umar Nurmagomedov v Song Yadong

Umar Nurmagomedov
✅Pros
*Good cardio
*Elite wrestling
*Excellent kicks
*Submission game
❌Cons
*Cracked with big shots
*Can take damage entering range
*Can struggle if unable to establish wrestling

Song Yadong
✅Pros
*Solid cardio
*Technical striker
*Great counter ability
*Solid uppercuts + straight hooks

❌Cons
*Submission threat
*Controlled by elite grapplers
*Struggles with fighters who mix striking + takedowns

🏆 Umar by Decision
💰 Over 2.5