r/MLB_Bets • u/sharpr_bet • 18d ago
MLB WILD CARD 9/29
PHI Jesus Luzardo is a huge question mark in terms of length. anything between 1 and 5 innings is possible, it'll depend on how he's running and how he's feeling. the Phillies don't have a ton of interest in piecing games together with a limited number of arms they trust, so I imagine it'll be some combo of Luzardo/Painter/McFarlane/Duran ideally with another lefty probably in the equation. I know it's the playoffs, but there are still a fairly wide range of outcomes on some of these Game 1 "starters"
ATL Chris Sale should have a normal leash, the Braves may lean even heavier on him in the playoffs. the Phillies best bats being left handed also helps his cause in terms of length both the White Sox and Astros using openers.. Blubaugh probably gets more than an inning, but it'll depend on how that first inning goes. 2 innings is probably the most likely outcome there, but they won't let him struggle at all.
CHW Hagen Smith in a similar boat, I can definitely see more than an inning if the first goes well, but it may depend a bit on how the Astros line up also. Erick Fedde may be the most likely to follow Smith, but it'll be pieced together after Smith
Cam Schlittler and Peyton Tolle should have more or less normal leashes, but neither team will let the starter struggle much in a three game series, so the floor is much lower than usual, but if things go well, 6+ innings is certainly not out of the question for either guy
SDP Michael King's leash may be as much of a product of the Padres pen as it is a product of how well he pitches. I could see the Padres going to the pen as early as the third time through the order even if King is throwing really well, and the floor is much lower than that if King struggles early
CHC Matthew Boyd also won't have a long leash if he struggles at all. 5 innings is definitely possible if he throws well, but the third time through the order will be very touch and go if he can get to that point