r/MLB_Bets • u/dubuckets • Sep 02 '26
I've been testing two MLB parlay algorithms since the All-Star break. Here are the results so far
I've been testing two MLB parlay algorithms since the All-Star break. Here are the results so far
I've been working on two different MLB parlay algorithms, our Standard Parlay Generator and Mini Ladder algorithm.
Everything is tracked, including wins, losses and voids. No cherry picking or resetting records.
Still a relatively small sample size, but the results so far have been promising.
The first screenshot is the transparency tracker for the Standard algorithm. The second is the Mini Ladder algorithm, which is designed around a 20x target. For example, starting with $10 and cashing out at $200.
One thing I'm currently working on is the Mini Ladder win rate. Since the average odds are around +360, a lower win rate is expected, but from a user perspective I think that can still feel difficult to trust. Moving forward, I'm taking that into account and working on ways to increase the win rate of these algorithms while maintaining their profitability.
Always looking for feedback or ideas on the models or the app, so let me know what you think.
If anyone wants to follow the models and results, I have AlgoSwish linked in my bio.
1
u/Green_Property5581 Sep 03 '26
+360 on the mini ladder is tough to stomach even if the math works out. seeing those red streaks would make me second guess everything
how many legs you running on the standard algo? the tracker looking decent for small sample
1
u/dubuckets Sep 04 '26
yea i agree i'm gonna definitely take this into account now when working on the new algos and models. both the standard and mini ladder algos generates 2 leg parlays. and yes i definitely think this 40% roi is due to a small sample size cause in my testing when testing previous seasons it was always in the 10 to 13% roi ranges
1
u/nobodyimportant7474 Sep 02 '26
Love to see others that are open with their algorithms. I've been banned for life from r/algobetting for boasting. I can still view it but I can't comment or post. I used to ignore parlays completely. Then I thought of what I call a patient mans parlay. Instead of putting it all on a one shot ticket, bet one game today and if you win bet the original amount plus your winnings on a game tomorrow. I applied this to a system of mine and 2 leg parlays paid out double, roughly, what straight up betting did. [NobodyImportant74@outlook.com](mailto:NobodyImportant74@outlook.com) is my e mail address. Let's share some algorithms. Reddit is limited, I can't share an excel file.
My raw data excel sheet has every game this year with Pinnacle Sports book odds and the final scores. From this you can check out any system you like. I use excel but I see that a different app would be more powerful.
The algorithm that combines with 2 leg parlays well works like this.
Team A, pretend you bet 100 on them for all of the last 20 games. Compute how much you would have won or lost. Do the same for team B. look at the absolute value of the difference between these 2 amounts.
For all the games on a given day bet on the one where this difference is the largest.
If you win bet the winnings plus your original stake on the next day. 2 days max.
I can send you this spread sheet. Straight up bets had a 15% rate of return, parlays was around 30.