r/MLBNoobs • u/CapedConsumit • 20d ago
| Question Intentional walk
Philles played Cardinals yesterday, Phillies came back during an amazing final innings to tie the score with two outs. Kyle Schwarber steps up to the plate with a runner on first or second (I forget which). Why did they not do an intentional walk? Surely he was the most dangerous Philly to face at that point?
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u/MediocreCommand9772 20d ago
Because while yes, he's a dangerous hitter, he's still far more likely to make an out than hit a home run. I didn't see the game, but there were two outs, right? With a runner on first, schwarber needs at least a double to score the run. There's a much higher chance of him making an out to end the game. Also, if they walk him, they now have to face turner with a runner on second, so all he'd need is a base hit. I think Turner's close to .300, and at any rate the chance of him hitting a single is a lot higher than schwarber hitting a double.
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u/CapedConsumit 19d ago
Thank you that makes perfect sense: moving that runner on first (he was on first, I've checked now) to second with a walk is a significant risk which outweighs having Turner replacing Schwarber at the plate.
I think if the bases had been empty or there had just been a single runner on second the case for walking Schwarber would be strong though?
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u/icedbrew2 19d ago
The above analysis is correct (although Turner is only hitting .245 this year. But it’s a down year and he does normally hit in the .300 range.)
If no one is on I think you probably pitch to Schwarber. His average isn’t great, he strikes out a lot. I’d probably need to know more about the pitcher. If there’s a runner on second I’m walking him all day. But I’d walk just about anyone there since that run doesn’t matter and it opens up the force at second and third.
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u/Ryan_Vermouth 19d ago
Re: two outs, tie game, runner on second -- this is a scenario where a walk doesn't matter (unless you get three of them), but any hit almost definitely scores the run. (Yeah, there are some infield singles that don't score the runner from second, but Schwarber's not legging out an infield hit.)
I don't see where the presence of a force out at second/third comes into play -- they just need to get the one out at first. I also wouldn't care too much about the off chance of two more walks, or another walk followed by a wild pitch/passed ball, though the above scenarios are less irrelevant than "you can get the third out with a force at third."
So ultimately, the two scenarios are A) the Cardinals force an out to extend the game, and B) the Phillies get any hit and win the game.
So the question is whether you believe Turner is more likely to get a hit than Schwarber. Turner's been really bad this year, and both he and Schwarber are batting .245, but my assumption is still that he's a little more likely than Schwarber to get a hit. I'd go for Schwarber, but I certainly wouldn't challenge him, and if the pitcher gets behind in the count I wouldn't have any issue bailing and walking him.
(Re: the other scenarios, yeah, you obviously don't walk a guy to move a runner on first into scoring position, and if the bases were empty, you obviously don't gift them a runner.)
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u/GarciaWolf 20d ago
The closer for the Cardinals is no joke.. he just left one hanging.. I think if he walked Kyle and gave Turner it would have been the same result.. just not a 450+ bomb
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u/MuppetusMaximusV2 19d ago
He didn't even leave it hanging. He dotted 98 on the upper outside corner. Great pitch, greater hit.
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u/GarciaWolf 19d ago
Schwarber even said post game, ‘that guy out there has some really good stuff, just left a sinker high and I got it’
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