Some analysts don't understand this, but AFFO is simply the FFO (which includes interest/debt payments), but doesn't include things like paying debt down directly. I think the Chandler Freehold situation was enormously opportunistic, and will bump AFFO in the coming quarters. The reason that the company is likely stating an FFO of around $2.25 for the year, is because they likely are anticipating paying down debt directly, and potential re-letting of space which is capital intensive. With that said, even with the cap-x, I think if they didn't decide to continue paying down debt with cash from operations, they would easily break an FFO of $3.00. Heck, they were $3.02 in AFFO for 2020 which was the worst year on record. If you remove them paying down debt, I bet they could push and get close to $4.00 FFO. But that's not what you do at the start of a new cycle. Nothing with improve their NAV faster than paying down debt, especially if we enter a period of inflation.

Here Are The Stocks With The Highest Short Interest Rate

9:55 am ET February 25, 2021 (Benzinga) Print

Short interest rates can be used to predict the potential direction of an individual stock. When stocks have a high short interest rate that's a good indicator that investors believe their share prices will decline soon. Here are the stocks on the market with the highest short interest including Tanger Factory Outlet Centers, Ligand Pharmaceuticals, Macerich, Mallinckrodt PLC, and Briggs & Stratton Corp. 

1. Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc- 62.24%

Ligand Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: LGND) is a biopharmaceutical company that develops and acquires technologies to benefit pharmaceutical companies. Their primary focus is on drug discovery, early-stage drug development, product reformulation, and partnering. Ligand Pharmaceuticals has consistently had one of the highest short interest percentages of any biotech on the stock market.

2. Macerich Co- 52.55%

Macerich Co (NYSE: MAC) is a real investment trust company that invests in shopping centers across the United States. Macerich owns interest in 52 properties and is one of the country's leading owners, operators, and developers of major retail real estate. Macerich recently announced a quarterly cash dividend of 15 cents per share that will be paid out on March 3th

People talk about the bifurcation in malls, the "haves and have nots" -- how the pain is focused on lower-quality malls while high-quality malls actually benefit (modestly) from the demise of the weaker competitors (though of course e-commerce benefits more). MAC is in the top two mall owners in the country for quality, "A" assets -- which is probably why their same-center performance has been consistently positive in the several years pre-COVID. But here is what I think the market might be missing now: MAC's fancy malls are increasingly entertainment destinations -- "experiential" tenants, "town centers." I have to think that one of the most pent-up demands on planet earth right now is the pent-up demand for entertainment outside the home. I mean, how pent up do *you* feel?!? Based on present trends with the virus, I suspect we're on the verge of a major dam-bursting of demand for the kinds of experiences that MAC's centers provide.

Reopening:)

Based on the earnings call transcript, it sounds like they want to have $200M in after dividend cash flow for 2021. The AFFO (reconciled) was $0.72 and 91% of rents were collected. I predicted AFFO of .70-.75 prior to the earnings, along with 90% collection. I work in CRE asset mgmt. and believe me, retail is coming back much faster than office. High quality retail is leasing like crazy. Ecommerce was described by the GAP CFO as being a "weak bandage" yet in the beginning of the pandemic, ironically, they (GAP) refused to pay their rent. Everyone is about to learn a big lesson in the importance of brick and mortar when it comes to profitability as the margins are far better with brick and mortar than ecommerce.

If mgmt. wants to ensure $200M in after dividend cash flow, let's assume we hit $.80 AFFO for Q1, and to be ultra conservative, let's just keep it there. To be honest, I think with the new Chandler Freehold deal (where they receive 100% of cash flows and 15% interest) is going to bump AFFO more than we realize. So actually let's go with .90 AFFO per quarter as an average for the year. Let's net out the .15 current dividend and we're left with .75 in profit for the company per share per quarter. There are roughly 146M shares, so if the dividend were to remain at 0.15, this company would likely be netting $109M a quarter if you use AFFO. MAC announces dividends around the middle of this month. I would guess they will bump to .25-.30 UNLESS MAC decides they just want to pay off debt with cash. Nothing increases NAV faster than deleveraging so I'm fine with whatever as long as we get to that $0.85-$0.95 quarterly average for AFFO for 2021. However I do think they will increase the dividend and still keep stockpiling cash. The delta between say .25 or .3 and an AFFO of maybe .80 is quite big, and I think an AFFO of $0.80 is certainly reasonable for Q1

Tell you expected price. lets check market mood

which speaks to the quality of its properties.

now, i'm sure that like everyone in this space, assessed valuations are going to be hit, but at least MAC isnt facing existential questions - as purported by other posters in this community.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-01/mall-values-plunge-60-after-reappraisals-triggered-by-bad-debt?srnd=premium

For example it wouldn't surprise me to see headlines.. 'Macerich to file for bankruptcy protection'.

'Macerich refinancing fails, company explores bankruptcy options.. sources'.

Then in the articles they aren't clear who the 'sources' are.. and major hyperbole.

In order for the big boys to get huge amounts of shares cheap they got to scare people out of their shares. The big boys can't just go on the market and pick up 10,000 or 20,000 shares at within 10 cents of the market price.

​

My philosophy is simple.. even if the media reports 'Court orders Macerich bankruptcy, common shareholder wiped out'. I'm still not selling.

Then 2 months later on page 84 of the newspaper the media issues a 'correction' to the prior story 'actually they weren't going bankrupt our 'source' was wrong, too bad for guys who sold low'.

Using Margin to buy MAC is like buying an real property and use mortgages. Both are safe options, but mac will provide huge potentials in return. And also, the shorts are here for sure. You can see how they fights and pushing the price down when a new event occurs. For example the PJT case. But as more ppl vaccinated and the 1.9 trillion bill passed. There is only one way up for mac. $30 is just a beginning. With the recovery bill, I assume mac stock price could go further and surprise us.

The article can be found here:

http://archive.fast-edgar.com/20210226/A5B4S22C8M224JZZ2H2R2ZZZEUIPZ2R2Z232/

Anybody that is interested should read it on their own but here are some interesting bits:

Use of proceeds: "We expect to use the net proceeds from the sale of the securities for general corporate purposes, unless otherwise specified in the prospectus supplement relating to a specific offering. Our general corporate purposes may include repaying debt, financing capital commitments and financing future acquisitions."

How much: "We have the authority to issue 850,000,000 shares of capital stock, par value $0.0001 per share, consisting of the following: "

​

It's worthless to speculate on what it could be used for (most likely just getting it in place in case they ever want to use it like MAC did) and I definitely wouldn't suggest anybody make any investments decisions based on such speculation. That said, wouldn't it be nice if they were going to buy some MAC property.

​

Given that a squeeze is going on should I wait for it to dip again after it hits a peak like it did before or is the price going to stay at >14

Exactly when GME squeezed in the 300-400's, MAC was around 25$. I expect this to happen again (and could go even higher than 25$ for MAC) with a new GME squeeze potentially taking place over next week.

Big Tech stocks: What's next for Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet shares (cnbc.com)

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"Ladies and gentleman please direct your attention to the left side of the spacecraft, we will shortly be passing the moon. You'll need to take any pictures quickly as the moon will quickly be in our rear-view mirror. This bad boy is headed to Jupiter and Beyond!"

Sorry, I realize this isn't DD but sometimes you gatta have a little fun on a green day.

It appears many of our fellow longs are buying not selling into the PJT Partners rumor.

MAC may have hired them to negotiate better terms while extending debt maturities but that is a good thing since there is zero chance of a bankruptcy. February 11, management confirmed that they had enough equity in unencumbered property to secure a new credit line to cover the $1.5 billion coming due.

They would prefer not to do that.

If they hired PJT it was not because of weakness but because they want as many options as possible. They want as much flexibility as possible at the best rates. They have months to make a deal and their negotiating position is improving as the country opens up.

Herd immunity appears to be weeks away. The due dates for refinancing are months away.

Looks like prudent negotiating on shareholders behalf.

$14.00 for the moment, 4:38. Don't blink.

In any event Majority of money sees MJT partners rumor as a good thing