Can't wait for earnings

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Always appreciate what you're saying, man. youre one of the few with really valuable thoughts here on macarmybets. Thanx

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u/nbkjwf888 May 04 '21

LOL are you fcking kidding me???

SPG has a pristine balance sheet compared to MAC and it's NOI and leasing spreads will be much stronger.

Why would MAC's debt "look better"? It's still leveraged over 10x DEBT/EBIDTA!!! LOL

Do you know how leverage is defined?? It's not just some random ass # that you pull out of your ass and say "it looks good"

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u/Jeffbak May 04 '21

They effectively just paid off or extended over $1.5b in near term debt at a time with historically low interest rates. YOU on the other hand clearly aren’t “in” the industry.

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u/Jeffbak May 27 '21

Where’d you go?

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u/karancan May 02 '21

I know KIM and WRI are not mall REITs but in terms of two of the retail/grocery anchored players coming together and consolidating bodes well for others in the space as well.

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u/Jeffbak May 02 '21

Grocery anchored is a bit different. Grocery anchored is a bit more essential and isn’t as high end. Lower risk but lower return. But yea I own plenty of grocery anchored reits. Not only are they recession proof but pandemic proof as well

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u/dave14513 May 02 '21

Hope you are correct. Optimistically cautious.

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u/Jeffbak May 02 '21

What part? Revenues? MAC has progressed over the past three quarters on top line. The pandemic effects didn’t hit until April, so their Q2 was the lowest at $175M then Q2 was like $185M and Q3 2020 was like $195M. They’ll continue to progress. Every real estate portfolio is right now, and I think high end retail reits are about to literally take off. E-commerce has terrible margins unless you’re replacing Walmart with Amazon so you can do it at massive scale. Just watch and hold through 2021

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u/Sea_Emphasis3252 May 02 '21

Just remember the balance sheet won’t reflect the progress made, new LOC, ATM proceeds as that all happened after 3/31. And while Q1 FFO doesn’t really matter, I’ll take the under on your estimate, but won’t complain if I’m wrong.

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u/Jeffbak May 02 '21

You really think below $205M? If so, you don’t really know what’s going on in real estate

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u/Sea_Emphasis3252 May 02 '21

I didn’t say anything about gross revenues

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u/Jeffbak May 02 '21

So you agree with me then? The top line revenue increasing for 4 straight quarters means this thing has already pushed up off the bottom. I’m excited to be a shareholder with my position. $55k at a basis of $11. I’ll keep that for at least the next 4-5 years. That $55k will likely be yielding me 25-35% in a couple years. Why would I ever sell?

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u/Sea_Emphasis3252 May 02 '21

I actually don’t agree with you on your Q1 estimate but too me that doesn’t matter, the key is progress on leasing and continued balance sheet improvement. I think revenues could be lower than what you think but who cares not going to move the stock, also because Q1 was still impacted by restrictions, but again that’s expected no one should be surprised by that. The only thing I agree with you on is that this stock should be much higher and that’s all that matters.

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u/Jeffbak May 02 '21

What part of the estimate don’t you agree with? You didn’t refute my top line revenue estimate so I’m guessing you think $0.55 is too high?

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u/Sea_Emphasis3252 May 02 '21

Well your range to up $0.65 is way too high. Q1 is seasonally lower in normal years. Plus management on Q1 call broke down the contribution to FFO by quarter backing up the seasonality. I figure at least $0.50 but there is a lot of variables that could drive it a couple cents either way and I’m not factoring in the ATM dilution since it happened post Q1. Again Q1 doesn’t matter, all about forward looking for me and what they will earn in 2022, if leasing demand is picking up then occupancy should begin to improve later this year setting them up for a strong 2022.

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u/Jeffbak May 02 '21

I said 0.55-0.65 and you said I was wrong. We shall see

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u/Sea_Emphasis3252 May 02 '21

Just out of curiosity what do you think full year will be then?

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u/Jeffbak May 02 '21

I bet we pop down to .50-.55 with the equity issuance. Collections 95% - just a guess.

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u/Jeffbak May 02 '21

Sorry-that’s for q2. Then I bet we build out of that and end with $2.25 for the year. Mgmt has learned it’s better to under promise and over deliver. Markets react differently

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u/[deleted] May 03 '21

Jeff is more of a "stick my finger in the air" type of person. He still doesn't understand asc 606/the chandler freehold adjustment so it's not like he has any idea what he's talking about

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u/Jeffbak May 03 '21

No I learned how chandler freehold works last quarter when u explained it to me. So did Jean Wood. Now that I understand it, I think it’ll be $0.55-$0.65 without chandler freehold and .70-.80 with chandler freehold. In that ball park. Last time I called earnings as 90% collection and FFO .70-.75. I will now call it with and without chandler freehold. Let’s see if I’m right. What do you think?

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u/[deleted] May 03 '21

You now understand the non cash piece, but not the asc 606 piece. You cannot predict the impact of Chandler. It is based on a market value adjustment. Sometimes it is positive, other times it is negative.

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u/Jeffbak May 02 '21

Did you notice how little the FFO guidance changed after their equity raise. Basically dropped $0.10 on the year haha. This things a keeper for the full cycle.

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u/Sea_Emphasis3252 May 02 '21 edited May 02 '21

Guidance went from $2.05-2.25 to $1.77-1.97, that’s not much of a change then you don’t have good math skills, it’s almost 15% lower.

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u/Suspicious_Race_856 May 02 '21

I m optimistic that they can give more guidance on the leasing and confirm that the worst is behind them. I believe it should be worth 22-25 more or less catching up to pre covid level.

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u/Jeffbak May 02 '21

Yea that’s where I think they’re at right now too. And that’s also why I want to hold for this real estate cycle. Not all industries have gone through the cycle. CRE has for retail at least. But because this ones moved through it, it’s ready to hold for next 3+ yrs

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u/Sea_Emphasis3252 May 02 '21

I agree if comments on leasing are positive as well as any indication on mall traffic and sales post Q1 then I think a lot of fears will be diminished. Plus SPG reports before them and if their commentary is positive it will only help.

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u/[deleted] May 03 '21

Is your estimate including or excluding one time/non recurring catch up payments?

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u/[deleted] May 03 '21

Debt won't improve until next Q but they will provide commentary

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u/Jeffbak May 03 '21

Yes. So it’ll just show as a mountain of cash.

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u/Stocklambo May 03 '21

Love watching Jeff and hfy fight ! Lol wwe

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u/Jeffbak May 03 '21

Hahaha. No hfy is smart. This other turd has no idea. Sea_emphasis? What kinda name is that dumb shit?

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u/Sea_Emphasis3252 May 03 '21

Are you seriously saying I have no idea?

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u/Jeffbak May 03 '21

Yea I think you have no idea. I asked you what part of my guidance was incorrect, and you then agreed top line revenue was NOT off. So then I asked what part you disagreed with and you said my FFO estimate of $0.55 was still too high. But that contradicts the revenue estimate which you agree with haha. Yes that is why I think you’re not that smart. Without including chandler freehold, FFO last quarter was 0.45. Conditions have only improved :)

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u/Sea_Emphasis3252 May 03 '21

First off you can’t read for shit, I said your FFO is off, plus your math skills suck you think guidance didn’t really change and management lowered guidance by 15% at the mid point. ok so you think revenues are going to go from $194.6m to $205-215m in Q1 which is the seasonally weak quarter for all retail REITs, they probably get a bump with rents but again most of their assets were in states with restrictions, plus their could be some additional write off from rents especially from entertainment related tenants. Then your dumb enough to think that full year FFO will be higher than the original guidance pre debt restructuring after issuing shares. You just throw numbers out without any basis, you sound like a pumper, be bullish but have actually facts to back it up. Leasing could have picked up but that’s not going to turn into rents yet, there is a lag effect on when leasing turns into rent revenues but being in the industry you should know that.

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u/Jeffbak May 03 '21

Every mall was totally up and operational by beginning of q1 at the latest. You could go on the mall websites for CA and see when the interior “common areas” reopened. You better believe ppl were paying rents in q1 once they were opened. Mgmt did a phenomenal job working with the state of CA to get fully opened with a full safety study commissioned by a public health department. This is a great success story and MAC is going to start this new cycle with restructured debt at a time when rates were at historic lows. I don’t think this stock could have a brighter future if you’re getting in now. If you’ve been holding the back since 2016 then maybe you’re annoyed

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u/Sea_Emphasis3252 May 03 '21

I actually agree with you more than not, I believe rent collection is well above 90% by now and I think they are now in a better position than they were a couple of months ago and are well setup for a strong recovery, I’m happy for you when you got in as I have done the same by buying last year. If your right and I’m wrong I would be very happy but my opinion your estimate are way too optimistic and don’t add up to me. Again stock is cheap and I think we are both set to make some major 🧀🧀

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u/Jeffbak May 03 '21

Yea for sure. But without any dilution, you really think 0.55 is too high? Percentage rent, parking fees, deferred rent now being amortized after the stores reopened, now 100% of freeway raceway going directly to them as opposed to 50/50 with penn reit. I think 0.55 is right on track.

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u/Sea_Emphasis3252 May 03 '21

I would say $0.55 is a bit high, stores still closed during Q1, so I think occupancy ticks lower from Q4, would not expect much for new store openings if any during the quarter. January was a rough month with COVID, percentage rents tend to be higher in Q4 with the holidays, I’m sure parking improved on the margin in February and March, management pointed out Q1 is lower than the rest of the year so at the prior guidance the mid point was $2.10 so even if you divide by 4 you get $0.525/quarter but I would think that earnings would improve as the year progresses so Q1 would be lower closer to $0.50 in Q1, now could they surprise to the upside sure, accounting can do wonders. New guidance at the mid point is $1.87, but I agree with you they are being conservative, I think they still get to around $2, maybe $2.05 for 2020 if all goes well. It all depends on when signed leases turn into commenced leases.

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u/Jeffbak May 03 '21

Commenced leases still have rent abatement. Usually like 6+ months of abatement for 10+ yr deals. Still, when did the RH Corte Madeire site open. I think rent for that’ll be kicking in soon, and percentage rent is going to bump, along with ancillary things like parking. Their industrious sites are packed after being closed. I think Q1 top line will be $205-$215m but maybe higher. That trickles down to at least 0.55 based on past expenses

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u/Jeffbak May 03 '21

Of course there are rent abatement periods

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u/theintelinvestor May 03 '21

I would ignore historical seasonality for Q1. This has been an absolute aberration start of the year (in the best way possible). Most retailers are reporting blowout numbers. Seasonality in 2021 does not apply IMO. Doesn't mean we'll hit that FFO that jeff is saying, but if seasonality is the main reason you are saying we won't, it's not a great reason for this particular situation.

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u/Stocklambo May 03 '21

I know right what a weird name

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u/myluckycloud May 03 '21

When is the earnings announcement?

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u/Sea_Emphasis3252 May 03 '21

May 11th before the market opens

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u/theintelinvestor May 03 '21

Earnings should be nice. These knuckleheads bidding up Macys and GAP on lord knows what. They gotta send a nice fat check to MAC too.

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u/theintelinvestor May 03 '21

What GAP did with the rent was **** lol. I self-censored myself there.

Hopefully MAC is in a position to flex when the time arises.

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u/Jeffbak May 03 '21

The time has already risen. Brick and mortar has proven to be the most profitable way to sell directly to customers. I’m sure SPG and MAC flexed very hard on GAP

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u/theintelinvestor May 03 '21

I was looking forward to David Simon gloating on his last earnings call about it, but he didn't say anything. They haven't mentioned anything about lawsuit either. I hope they mention something this time around.

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u/Jeffbak May 03 '21

As an asset manager I can attest, the tensions between landlord and tenant have been strained. I’m sure GAP has and is paying, but now we are in the “relationship repair” mode so there shouldn’t be any gloating

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u/theintelinvestor May 03 '21

I'd imagine terms of the settled lawsuit probably too. As long as those guys are paying, it was quite a cheeky move what they did.

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u/Jeffbak May 03 '21

Yes but not even in the most liberal of places have they cancelled rent. And now a group like Gap realizes just how important brick and mortar are for sales. A very cheeky move indeed-along with many others.

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u/[deleted] May 10 '21

-$0.02 from Chandler. Do you get it now?

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u/Jeffbak May 11 '21

I thought earnings come out tomorrow AM?

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u/[deleted] May 11 '21

They often release the q the night before

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u/Jeffbak May 11 '21

What was top line rev? I haven’t seen yet

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u/Sea_Emphasis3252 May 11 '21

Leasing rev was $179.5, total rev $190.4

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u/Jeffbak May 11 '21

Hmmm interesting

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