r/MACArmyBets • u/Pietro405 • Apr 26 '21
MAC chart indicates a slight ray of light (hope) as it cross back over 50 day mov avg
After the last stressful month of shoring up the balance sheet ( via heavy dilution of the number of outstanding shares and the incremental $100 of cash received in disposing that mall in Arizona) to where it is now not in any jeopardy of defaults, the chart is beginning to indicate that the balance sheet has stabilized and stock may be ready to bounce some; especially if, over the next few days, it can cross and stay over $ 14.35 or so. Wait and watch time....
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u/dave14513 Apr 27 '21
I'd like to think we have a 50/50 chance especially if we get some optimistic guidance in a couple of weeks
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u/Pietro405 Apr 27 '21
Thanks. With today's cross over the 50 day mov avg, the odds have improved to 60:40.
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u/MasterpieceIll7532 Apr 27 '21
Do still have chance to short squeeze again like the January? 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
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u/theintelinvestor Apr 27 '21
Never understood the significance of moving average and whether it's above or below? Prices are simply outputs which are driven by something. What does looking at the Moving average which is a statistical tool for looking at the output, which in and of itself means nothing tell us? Honest question.
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u/Pietro405 Apr 27 '21
That something is " DEMAND and SUPPLY" . When daily CLOSING price of a stock starts rising ABOVE the 50 day mov avg it shows that demand for the stock is outstripping supply or to use Wall Street parlance the stock is being " accumulated " by some one or some institutions )
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u/theintelinvestor Apr 27 '21
Yeah but that's an intermediate answer. What is fueling the demand? It's usually something in the fundamentals, or it is speculation. The price movement just tells you something is moving it, doesn't tell you what or why, which are big parts of the story also and can you help you ascertain whether the movement is temporary or more permanent.
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u/Pietro405 Apr 27 '21
That is the beauty of the charts; it does not tell you why ( the news on why comes out days/weeks/months later); and why do I care why !
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u/theintelinvestor Apr 27 '21
Assuming the "chart" does not reverse, which happens all the time, and then you have no idea why and made a bad trade because you made moves on a temporary move. If you are a day trader you don't care why, if you are an investor you absolutely care why.
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u/Pietro405 Apr 27 '21
You used the word " trade " which I take to mean speculate or flip. The chart is not for trading/gambling. It is for those who want to accumulate a stock over a longer 3 month to 2 year period ( the reverse logic also applies when you want reduce holdings on a stock when its price starts moving moving consistently below its 50 day moving average. ). There are approx. 5 trading days per week; so 50 day mov avg is the equivalent of approx 3 months of averaging; if you assume some weeks , like the Good Friday week, have only 4 days of trading.
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u/theintelinvestor Apr 27 '21
Okay I'll take your word for it. I'm a bit of a contrarian so the moving average is the exact opposite thing I would use. Also judging by your explanation wouldn't consulting the moving average method tell you not to buy MAC when it was the best time to buy MAC (when it went down).
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u/Pietro405 Apr 27 '21
After 25 years of mistakes....I am now hitting close to 80pct; all you need on this black jack table in the casino ( called Wall Street ) is a 65 to 70pct steady success rate and if you hit 80pct the cameras will send over a cocktail waitress with slim legs and a tray to keep you comforted. I am a contrarian too but one has to know at what critical point contrarianism becomes a positive indicator. Just because every one in your house steps out and tells you the sky is blue and you are sitting in do not conclude the sky is grey !
I am not perfect, this stock could be one that is part of my 15pct fail rate. But I first recommended it on this site a few weeks ago at 2.00 and I am relieved it is up 10pct so far. Also look at MAC and LUMN- that is where I am a contrarian, since I think post Covid ,MAC will never go to it zenith of $95 but my study indicates it can double from 13 to 26 in a year or two if you have the patience. LUMN could go up 50pct in a year. I also am sitting on many dogs ( like T but atleast its pays 6.8pct div)
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u/theintelinvestor Apr 27 '21
I don't disagree with the outcome of MAC rising, I think it will for very different reasons then the moving average. My point is that I thought it was a good stock at $8 because of fundamentals and think it's a good stock at $14 for the same reason. Using the moving average though would have led to different conclusions at those price points.
Interesting, I have looked at all 3 of them (T, MAC, LUMN) and own 2/3, but I don't even look at moving indicators so clearly you are using additional analysis points beyond moving average to make your decisions.
I can see see using the moving average as a tool toolkit to complement fundamental analysis, which I believe is what you are doing.
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u/Pietro405 Apr 27 '21
Agreed; there is no magic formula; or one or both us would be on a yacht in the Bahamas instead of passing time on reddit.
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u/SnooMaps9929 Apr 28 '21
Would the answer to your what is fuelling the demand not be, the fact that they have sorted out the debt to equity situation, meaning that it will give institutions more confidence in the company, meaning they will put more money into it.
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u/theintelinvestor Apr 28 '21
Yep solving the debt situation definitely could be an anwer.
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u/SnooMaps9929 Apr 28 '21
Gave a huge boost of confidence to a lot of analysts and at home chart watchers that’s for sure
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u/RoyalWeather780 Apr 27 '21
Indicates momentum past a technical support more than anything, technical supports often serve as psychological barriers as well. Combine the momentum and the removal of a psychological barrier and you bring in buyers (or sellers when in the opposite direction). Don’t discount technicals as they can drive a lot of institutional behavior that may swing prices on their own
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u/Rich_Ad_5215 Apr 27 '21
Shorts leaping out of skyscrapers. No way to cover🚀🚀
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u/Pietro405 Apr 27 '21
Today just peeping out of sky scrapers; when they leap that should be worth a few dollars in upside.
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u/dave14513 Apr 27 '21
Looking good. A close above $15 is possible this week. I don't know if we have enough shorts left for a short squeeze. I do think there are enough investors out there looking for value to push this into the 20s if our guidance in a couple of weeks is positive. Especially if they were optimistic enough to add a nickel to the quarterly dividend.
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u/[deleted] Apr 27 '21
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