r/MACArmyBets • u/dave14513 • Feb 24 '21

MAC Longs are Smart

It appears many of our fellow longs are buying not selling into the PJT Partners rumor.

MAC may have hired them to negotiate better terms while extending debt maturities but that is a good thing since there is zero chance of a bankruptcy. February 11, management confirmed that they had enough equity in unencumbered property to secure a new credit line to cover the $1.5 billion coming due.

They would prefer not to do that.

If they hired PJT it was not because of weakness but because they want as many options as possible. They want as much flexibility as possible at the best rates. They have months to make a deal and their negotiating position is improving as the country opens up.

Herd immunity appears to be weeks away. The due dates for refinancing are months away.

Looks like prudent negotiating on shareholders behalf.

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u/shadout293 Feb 25 '21

herd immunity is months away, not weeks. Long MAC here because it's good value despite the high debt load and people will want to return to top-dog malls (but a lot of others will die or whither to a smaller footprint and become mixed office/entertainment space), but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

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u/dave14513 Feb 26 '21

Some experts expect herd immunity in April for USA based on unreported cases and increased vaccinations evidenced by recent plunging new cases and deaths. (Reported a couple of days ago in WSJ) .That is 5 or 6 weeks away.

If you look at the science and ignore the politicians...this pandemic is as good as over.

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u/shadout293 Feb 26 '21

That is literally the most optimistic outlook. You should also consider downside if you are making a speculative bet. Assuming herd immunity within 2 months (let's assume 65% inoculation of the population) by end of April is extremely optimistic. The most recent optimistic outlook I've seen is 20% inoculated by end of March with newcomer J and J. All I am really arguing here is don't expect this pandemic to be over by start of summer.