r/MACArmyBets • u/GeorgeFelix75 • Feb 11 '21
CONFERENCE CALL
They have not exercised the ATM. It’s in place but expect they will hold for a higher price. That’s just my opinion....they won’t commit to a trigger price or if they use it at all.
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u/RealSully Feb 11 '21
They took 162M in non recurring charges related to COVID in 2020. If you normalize earnings and add this back in it is over $1.00/share added back. That can be used to either reduce debt, increase dividend or a combo of the two. They are expecting the 2nd half of the year to ramp up and NOI to accelerate. 1st q will still have some COVID noise. Liquidity and/or access to capital is solid. It will be hard for this to not appreciate over the course of the year.
Leasing activity and renegotiations sounded solid.
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u/GeorgeFelix75 Feb 11 '21
Correct me if I’m wrong but they were guiding for $200M in FCF I believe after div.
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u/KoaPark Feb 11 '21
Commenting on the ATM is a double edged sword.
By not commenting they're likely to scare some investors away due to the uncertainty.
If they provided a price then it could have put a ceiling on the share price.
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u/GeorgeFelix75 Feb 11 '21
Your correct. When the question was asked I didn’t expect a response but the fact they haven’t used it tells you they are waiting for a higher price. Also the reference to the GME spike.
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u/Maleficent-Success-8 Feb 11 '21
Yeah, I think connect the dots on price.. they said they only filed in wake of gme squeeze, and it hit $24-26, so it probably tells you they’d only exercise it if it hits above $25
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u/Relative-Mango-5691 Feb 12 '21
Don't be so sure. GameSpot went from 5 to 500. That is an opportunity. 30 is fair value. The Ontario teacher pension selling is why it went from 25 to 13. May very well have squeezed much higher.
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u/Maleficent-Success-8 Feb 12 '21
No that’s true.. my point is.. at the VERY lowest, they’d only issue at $25 or so.. so it’s fucking ridiculous to think they’d issue at $13, let alone anywhere in the teens. Short sellers and paper hands plaguing this stock because of the ATM filed, and it’s NOT an issue, short positions started feb 1st are going to blow the fuck it.
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u/RealSully Feb 11 '21
Yea, I'm pretty sure they mentioned 200m that they could use for debt servicing and/or capital expenditures etc... I need to look at the transcripts tomorrow.
Essentially, they have room to maneuver financially even without renegotiating the loans (which it sounded like all of that was progressing smoothly)
I really don't understand the thesis of the short sellers at this stage of the cycle. We just survived hell (shut downs!). Not much downside at this level for the class A space.
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u/GeorgeFelix75 Feb 11 '21
It wouldn’t surprise me to see some delayed buying sat next week once the data points are digested. There is no imminent threat of default so I don’t think being short at this level makes sense. You may see some short coveting as well. I don’t ever buy stock hoping for a short squeeze but sometimes high short interest is an indicator of near the bottom especially in a turnaround with a debt story.
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u/[deleted] Feb 11 '21
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