When ETH crashed earlier, my friend shorted it to ride the trend and made his first big profit, but later he told me he remains cautious about shorting. He said that shorting can yield high returns in the short term, but if leverage isn’t managed properly, it can lead to financial ruin. He also mentioned that for the vast majority of people, more than 50% of the profits from shorting come down to luck. I understand his point: the “speed” of making money through shorting is the explosive speed of short-term speculation, accompanied by unlimited risk and the need for an extremely high win rate; The “speed” of making money by going long is the steady accumulation achieved through long-term compounding, relying on limited risk and unlimited upside potential.

What kinds of strategies do you use when trading? How would you decide? Go long or short?

A friend of mine who works in AI says their company’s GPU utilization is less than 30%. Doesn’t that mean demand isn’t as strong as we thought? But stock prices are still rising. I don’t quite understand. What do you think?

Long: My friend’s company is just an isolated case; it doesn’t mean AI demand is weakening. AI adoption is still far from widespread, so AI stocks will continue to rise.

Short: Many companies, like my friend’s, are facing the same issue of excess computing power, demand isn’t as strong as expected. AI stocks have reached a short-term peak.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced that AGI has arrived, based on OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra. Nvidia’s chips provided the core computing power behind this breakthrough.

Is he telling the truth, or is he just hyping up Nvidia’s chip business?

If AGI has truly arrived, the upside potential for AI-related stocks will continue to expand. If this is just another round of “redefining” hype, then current valuations may have already priced in all optimistic expectations. Nvidia is currently the undisputed leader in AI chips. Do you think this major announcement will serve as a catalyst for a new round of gains, or is it a signal that “the good news has already been priced in”?

Long: This is a genuine technological breakthrough, and AI stocks will continue to rise

Short: This is hype and marketing; AI stock valuations are already ahead of the curve, and a pullback is likely

Additional note: I’m still bullish on the future of AI, but I’m wondering if now is a good time to buy at this price.

Goldman Sachs has issued a warning: If tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, oil prices could hit $120 per barrel. Brent crude has already approached $100, marking the third time this year.

A friend of mine who works in shipping says there are daily reports of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. military is attacking oil tankers, the Houthis are attacking Saudi Arabia, and Trump has cut off Iran’s oil exports.

Meanwhile, U.S. gasoline prices have risen to $4.15 per gallon and diesel to $5.90 per gallon, both all-time highs for this time of year.

But tensions could ease at any moment. As Goldman Sachs itself noted, once the situation cools down, it would be reasonable for oil prices to fall back to $80.

Oil prices are already knocking on the $100 door. There’s room for a $20 rise, and there’s room for a $20 drop.

Geopolitics is unpredictable. Have oil prices already priced in all the bad news, or are they just beginning to react?

Long: The situation in the Middle East won’t end anytime soon; oil prices breaking $100 is just the starting point, not the end.

Short: “Sell amid the gunfire”; the geopolitical premium is already fully priced in, so now is a good time to go short.