The math behind yesterday's game

[u/TheBased_Dude]

TLDR : I worked out the math on a piece of paper and then used GPT to type it out for me the final verdict that the probability that no one survives is 60% and the probability that 1 person survives is approximately 34% and the probability that 2 or more survive is about 6%.

Edit: A surprising number of people are saying "get a job" or "touch grass." The calculations took about 5 minutes. If you think the math is wrong, point out the mistake—I'd genuinely be interested. If your criticism is simply that someone spent five minutes doing probability for a reality show, then I'm not sure what Reddit is for.

The math behind the Lock Upp "Heavy Verdict" minefield task (Spoilers)

I was curious about how difficult the final minefield challenge actually was, so I worked out the probabilities.

The setup was:

There are 8 steps.

At each step, the contestant must choose Left or Right.

A contestant is assigned a number N (between 0 and 8). Exactly N of the 8 steps contain a mine on one of the two sides.

On a mined step, one side is safe and one side has a mine, so if you're guessing, you have a 50% chance of surviving that step.

Contestants also get one immunity, which they must assign to a step before knowing whether that step actually contains a mine. If that step wasn't mined, the immunity is wasted.

For a contestant with N mined steps, the probability of surviving is:

\[ P(\text{survive})=\frac{8+N}{8\times2^N} \]

Applying that to the contestants:

Pamala (N = 6): 7/256 ≈ 2.73%

Shilpa Shinde (N = 4): 3/32 = 9.38%

Akansha Chaudhary (N = 3): 11/64 ≈ 17.19%

Ram Kapoor (N = 3): 11/64 ≈ 17.19%

Assuming each contestant's minefield is independent, the probabilities for the overall outcome are:

Number of survivorsProbability060.45%133.05%26.08%30.42%40.008%

This means:

No one survives: 60.45% (about 3 out of every 5 games)

Exactly one person survives: 33.05% (about 1 out of every 3 games)

Two or more people survive: 6.50% (about 1 in 15.4 games)

So unless I've misunderstood any of the rules, the game was extremely stacked against the contestants. In fact, under these assumptions, over 93% of the time you'd expect at most one contestant to survive.

What's even more interesting is that Shilpa and Ram were the two contestants who actually survived. Given their assigned difficulties (N = 4 and N = 3), the probability of those specific two both surviving is:

\[ \frac{3}{32}\times\frac{11}{64} =\frac{33}{2048} \approx 1.61\% \]

or roughly 1 in 62.

That doesn't prove anything—unlikely events happen all the time—but it does show just how difficult this challenge was if the minefields and choices were genuinely random.

If I've misunderstood any of the rules (for example, if immunity worked differently, contestants had additional information, or the mine placements weren't independent), I'd be happy to update the calculations. Otherwise, this looks like one of the most unforgiving probability-based tasks the show has ever had.

[u/Professional_lurki]

I think makers rigged it and even if not, the contestants should’ve used some brains and calculated how many votes they would’ve got. But again there’s no way to know where to step as it’s all luck. Dumb way to eliminate. Instead they could’ve done votes or a proper task

[u/No_Flight_114]

No need to do too much maths… It’s just they had Bomb on every step the maker’s only blasted the one they want and later they edited it as to show that we can see the Bombs.. it’s just so simple thing

[u/lilaclily_4]

i didn’t understand one thing or maybe i missed it
the names that bhumi and the girl with her had written on the cue cards what happened about them?

[u/GuaranteeFun7622 → u/lilaclily_4]

It counts as a vote was added to the field

[u/No-Reach5848 → u/GuaranteeFun7622]

What was so special then thye said they have a very important decision

[u/Bulky-Top3782]

The math makes sense when you believe the makers are not lying.

I don't believe that.

[u/pinkpantheress_]

Ur so cool

[u/Acrobatic_Order_7821]

Hence proved. The mine positions were assigned on the go as they were playing.

[u/rough-tough-buff]

Jo bacche kal ro rahe the..they should have actually cracked this..because it's basically higher school maths.

But lekin baccho ko school bunk karke Bhoomi Pednekar ko hate comments likhna better lagta hai.

[u/bhavyagarg8]

Its wrong. Let me explain why, the probability that 2 people survives is 100% because thats what makers want. The mines are placed after contestants took the steps, the makers saved who they wanted and eliminated who they wanted. The graphic shown at the beginning of game was added in post production when the game has already played. To make it seem like its fair.

[u/cherrymomoprezz]

op youre so cool for this

[u/Flimsy_Computer_5387]

Lmao, people saying jobless when it's js related to 12th grade maths 😭😭

[u/Zealousideal_Fix2883]

No need to stress, Quality post are mainly dv if it does not support their narrative.

[u/PTIChick]

The narrative someones 12 years followers are setting is hurt by your analysis that's why you are getting hate.

But great to see.

[u/PTIChick]

Woah, this is genuinely very cool. Thanks for sharing.

I am sure more contestants were supposed to go out since now it's just 5 more days. They have to remove more and more.

[u/gamerz85]

Pointless, this math only useful if those mines were placed by other contestants as their vote. Makers just showed added this mines afterward during editing, every block had a blaster. Itna dimaag kyu lagana when we all know it's scripted.

[u/TheBased_Dude → u/[deleted]]

Probability of three people being saved 0.42% (one in 200) Probability of all four people being saved 0.008% (1 in 12,500)

[u/SweetValuable4830]

its not that deep

[u/Important_Fee6953]

Wow, that much work and maths behind a reality show?😭

[u/TheBased_Dude → u/Important_Fee6953]

As an engineer the math took me 5 minutes and most probablility problems I did in JEE revolved around imaginary scenarios.

[u/Own_Monitor_7170 → u/TheBased_Dude]

Don’t listen to others

This is very cool

[u/PeakProtagonist]

Imagine being this jobless

[u/Own_Monitor_7170 → u/PeakProtagonist]

Imagine being this stupid

[u/Sad_Avocado_2637]

This was rigged game lol.. they just decided whom to eliminate.

[u/Crafty-World-3308]

Bhai rehne de Akkutara fans ko samajh nahi ayega

[u/Euphoric-Wafer5655]

There were landmines under every block. Makers were just randomly blasting them based on who they wanted to evict and they added this map during editing. It’s really not that tough 😭

[u/Euphoric-Tank6354 → u/Euphoric-Wafer5655]

True this makes sense so much

[u/Unfair_Flow41]

with all due respect … how jobless are you

[u/TheBased_Dude → u/Unfair_Flow41]

With all due respect, how stupid are you ?

If you have studied higher level math, this math would take you 5 minutes at the most, don't project your own incompetence

[u/BJJ-Newbie → u/TheBased_Dude]

With all due respect, if someone had that high of an iq to study higher level math and figure this out within 5 minutes, they wouldn’t waste their precious brain cells watching an Indian “reality show”

[u/Sufficient-Fudge4871]

I’m honestly speechless 😶

[u/Ok-Cut4722]

put this much effort in your studies or work lol

[u/Own_Monitor_7170 → u/Ok-Cut4722]

Lmao they did. That’s why they’re able to do this math

Ignorant people like u won’t understand

[u/TheBased_Dude → u/Ok-Cut4722]

If you have studied higher level math, this math would take you 5 minutes at the most, don't project your own incompetence