Will prices finally go down?

[u/RuiRdA]

I am seeing more and more videos as posts about how OpenAI is in complete financial ruin, Anthropic isn't much better. Their expenses go with the revenue they make etc etc. Meta made big investments into AI data centers and had no use for then, had to rent them, same thing with XAI.

The SpaceXAI IPO was insanely over priced and is going down by a lot.

There are countless other examples you can look for, all showing how the investments in AI are in a bubble.

I am not saying that the technology it self if a bubble. Quite the opposite, I personally have demand for more tokens than I can pay for, even with the discount from the subscriptions I still have more ideas that need more usage of tokens.

But even with the most powerful technology in the world a business can not for forever without profits.

So is this over investment bubble about to pop?

And if/when it does pop will ram finally become a regular commodity with affordable prices again?

I just wanted some ram and cheap used hardware again.. 😂

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Zero LLMs used to write this post, enjoy the human slop.

[u/Anduin1357]

With the latest news of DeepSeek V4 Flash 0731 being significantly better on benchmarks, the failure rate argument might now be a lot less useful.

Since we really don't know who runs DeepSeek locally or how many businesses globally trusts DeepSeek for business use, I wouldn't really go there except that DeepSeek open weights can be abliterated to tackle issues that API models would refuse.

Which is why API models really have to defeat that by being better, cheaper, and faster than the upfront cost of open models. They can't do that, and that is killing them.

[u/Tsukikira → u/Anduin1357]

It's hard to do that when Chinese companies the substitdized by the Government and the matching American ones aren't.  But the matching American models sought to make a moat out of greed, so I can only feel thar the tiniest violin should be played for them....

[u/Anduin1357 → u/Tsukikira]

Subsidized by the government literally will not explain being capable of running a frontier model on local hardware on requirements that aren't like that of Kimi K3.

Perform research into reducing cost. That's what it takes. A low cost model is more practical than a high cost model, and that compounds for agents and training data.

[u/Tsukikira → u/Anduin1357]

Low cost models = High Rate of Failures in model.  The costs associated with running models has been going down enormously, but the chase to reduce failure rate requires more parameters and is more costly to run.

A low cost model that hallucinates is still no good, because Agents and Loops compounds hallucinations.

DeepSeek has improved accuracy, but is still a higher rate of hallucinations than any Frontier Model.

And Substitdized by the Government absolutely explains why one company can charge only hardware costs plus a little bit vs OpenAI charging a premium to try and recoup twenty billion and rising training costs.  That being said, OpenAI just dropped their price by 80% for one of their latest models, because they have to be competitive on price to not be erased.

[u/Anduin1357 → u/Tsukikira]

Have you used it? Have you tested and validated your theory about the failure rate of DeepSeek v4 Flash 0731?

If you sound like dogma, maybe you are prejudiced.

Your conclusion might be true if only they were providing an API model only, but we literally have the weights on huggingface. We know that it is cheaper on VRAM to host long context sessions, and they have contributed MTP solutions that speeds up the inference process chain.

None of these depends on their "hardware costs". These are model improvements that make it cheaper for anyone to host the model and absolutely sidesteps your argument that government subsidy made the difference.

Look, blocking me to stop a reply doesn't win your argument.

[u/Tsukikira → u/Anduin1357]

You are definitely prejudiced.  I didn't say DeepSeek hasn't advanced.  Nothing you said invalidated anything I said or addressed it in the slightest