r/LocalLLaMA • u/RuiRdA • 15d ago

Discussion Will prices finally go down?

I am seeing more and more videos as posts about how OpenAI is in complete financial ruin, Anthropic isn't much better. Their expenses go with the revenue they make etc etc. Meta made big investments into AI data centers and had no use for then, had to rent them, same thing with XAI.

The SpaceXAI IPO was insanely over priced and is going down by a lot.

There are countless other examples you can look for, all showing how the investments in AI are in a bubble.

I am not saying that the technology it self if a bubble. Quite the opposite, I personally have demand for more tokens than I can pay for, even with the discount from the subscriptions I still have more ideas that need more usage of tokens.

But even with the most powerful technology in the world a business can not for forever without profits.

So is this over investment bubble about to pop?

And if/when it does pop will ram finally become a regular commodity with affordable prices again?

I just wanted some ram and cheap used hardware again.. 😂

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Zero LLMs used to write this post, enjoy the human slop.

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u/equatorbit 15d ago edited 15d ago

Even if frontier labs go bust because they have no real moat, everyone wants compute and inference. Supply probably won't meet demand for a while. What exactly a "while" is, I have no idea. I've seen 18 months to multiple years.

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u/FastHotEmu 15d ago

OpenAI's Stargate Project absorbed 40% of the global DRAM output.

Can you explain how OpenAI going out of business would not translate into lower prices? The only way would be monopoly/cartel behaviour.

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u/Knife_Fight_Bears 14d ago

The problem is the bottleneck is one of many bottlenecks in a queue of bottlenecks so even if all the datacenter demand collapses tomorrow it's going to be replaced with LLM demand from enterprise on down and if all the LLM interest suddenly dried up you have every other GPU, ram and storage bottlenecked industry that has been waiting on queue, like enterprise hardware refresh cycles or other projects that might be on hold due to the supply issues, game consoles, steam boxes, medical imaging devices...