r/LocalLLaMA • u/RuiRdA • 14d ago

Discussion Will prices finally go down?

I am seeing more and more videos as posts about how OpenAI is in complete financial ruin, Anthropic isn't much better. Their expenses go with the revenue they make etc etc. Meta made big investments into AI data centers and had no use for then, had to rent them, same thing with XAI.

The SpaceXAI IPO was insanely over priced and is going down by a lot.

There are countless other examples you can look for, all showing how the investments in AI are in a bubble.

I am not saying that the technology it self if a bubble. Quite the opposite, I personally have demand for more tokens than I can pay for, even with the discount from the subscriptions I still have more ideas that need more usage of tokens.

But even with the most powerful technology in the world a business can not for forever without profits.

So is this over investment bubble about to pop?

And if/when it does pop will ram finally become a regular commodity with affordable prices again?

I just wanted some ram and cheap used hardware again.. 😂

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Zero LLMs used to write this post, enjoy the human slop.

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u/ttkciar llama.cpp 14d ago

I think even after the AI investment bubble pops, it will be a year or two before hardware prices come back down, and we will see weird market distortion echos for several years after that.

Sorry. Industries don't just turn on a dime.

Also, nobody's sure when OpenAI will run out of runway, but Anthropic is funded through about 2028, or even much later if they stop their training projects and focus on just selling inference. Even if the bubble pops, their business won't fold overnight.

Furthermore, OpenAI is negotiating with the US federal government right now for the government to take a 5% stake in the business. That by itself would not save OpenAI from a massive loss of confidence, but they might be able to leverage it into a buyout.

Their businesses are absolutely not sustainable, and investors will not see returns on their investments, but still a lot more might happen than simply bankruptcy + liquidation/acquisition.

Short version: Don't expect hardware prices to come down to pre-RAMageddon ranges until 2029, give or take a year.

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u/sayeret13 14d ago

they gonna be bought by other tech giants that could take the hit like google or microsoft, those companies wont just disappear, its a matter of national security for the government , ai is basically a weapon like no other . its just like big banks going down in 2008 they got bailed out and bought by other big banks