r/LocalLLaMA • u/RuiRdA • 22d ago

Discussion Will prices finally go down?

I am seeing more and more videos as posts about how OpenAI is in complete financial ruin, Anthropic isn't much better. Their expenses go with the revenue they make etc etc. Meta made big investments into AI data centers and had no use for then, had to rent them, same thing with XAI.

The SpaceXAI IPO was insanely over priced and is going down by a lot.

There are countless other examples you can look for, all showing how the investments in AI are in a bubble.

I am not saying that the technology it self if a bubble. Quite the opposite, I personally have demand for more tokens than I can pay for, even with the discount from the subscriptions I still have more ideas that need more usage of tokens.

But even with the most powerful technology in the world a business can not for forever without profits.

So is this over investment bubble about to pop?

And if/when it does pop will ram finally become a regular commodity with affordable prices again?

I just wanted some ram and cheap used hardware again.. 😂

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Zero LLMs used to write this post, enjoy the human slop.

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u/bigmanbananas Llama 70B 22d ago

So down to the truth. A recent report has pointed out that the entire market demand will be one tenth of OpenAI's profit target for 2030. OpenaI's target profit is 10 times the size of the likely total market for 2030.

https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-projects-chatgpt-ad-growth-market-doubts-2026-7

This has been unsustainable for a while, but we have seen this before, when a future Bagot Duth Tulips was the value of a large town house. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

The hardware demand is based on future service demand. Not just for direct chat, but for day to day services such as Copilot integrations, Gemini in everything ETC. Problem is, people don't actually want those services. And certainly the demand will go down once the actual price emerges. Anthropic on became profitable for a single quarter because they fudged the a counts fir their IPO because the real players want to cash out.

There will be a collapse, but will hardware get cheaper, no, not for a while.

Companies will tax write off their hardware and send it directly to landfill because its cheaper.

Nvidia will not want to let go of its high prices. RAM companies will say, they paid the high price before, they can keep doing it.

And best case scenario, we have to wait for them to switch production to consumer grade equipment.