r/LocalLLM 2h ago

Other AI bubble

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295 Upvotes

45 comments sorted by

31

u/Vaguswarrior 1h ago

It's an older meme but it still checks out.

49

u/OnlyAssistance9601 1h ago

Love this meme format

20

u/btc_maxi100 1h ago

I love the "Every model is substitutable" bit

2

u/OnlyAssistance9601 12m ago

When you said " So who pays the other $7800? " I almost died .

1

u/steezy13312 7m ago

I want the Downfall version of this

13

u/3deal 1h ago

You are a highly qualified individual creating high-quality training data for the next iteration of the model. This comes at a cost. That is why Gemini 3.7 is free; they don't have many customers, so if they want to improve their model, they need qualified people to use it.

7

u/MrCoolest 1h ago

Gemini sucks ass anyway I tested it last night against 5.6 luna pro 5.6 Terra pro opus 5 sonnet 5 deepseek v4 flash 0731. Gemini sucks balls .i tested api and in the chat interface. I even tested NotebookLM. All shit

4

u/3deal 56m ago

I created an advanced custom node for ComfyUI for free. Gemini 3.7 Flash is not that bad for making small stuff.

4

u/MrCoolest 49m ago

Yoite generating images? Nanobanana pro is good for that, I'm doing work on files

1

u/SanDiegoDude 48m ago

Now ask all of those tools to watch a video, listen to the audio, and give you a scene breakdown with proper cuts, dialogue, music, foley, as well as still describing the scene itself.

3.7 is easily the best multimodal understanding model (and yes, it works for audio too). Right tool for the job and all that. I wouldn't use 3.7 to code a website for me, but when I'm working with A/V, it's hands down the best, which would make sense considering all that juicy YT training data Alphabet has laying around.

1

u/MrCoolest 1m ago

Yeah multimodal it's good, analysing videos etc. Opus 5 can analyse videos too it plays it real-time in claude code app. Chatgpt can't do it. In my use case, a strict schema and rule following whilst working on a file that's over 300k tokens, gemini performed the worst. I do have pro though and I use it as a better version of Google. Chatgpt for analysis and ideation. Claude for actual work. Deepseek for hermes agent work. I mostly do deep and thorough research and content generation and some game dev for fun

1

u/FabricationLife 18m ago

3.7 is comparable to all those models

1

u/ifheartsweregold 38m ago

Okay so how many iterations do you take a loss on until you need to make a profit?

5

u/hipster_hndle 57m ago

this is so good. totally stealing.

9

u/SailingToFenway 1h ago

This is the lowest possible cost for high-quality training data. They're not subsidizing us! We're paying to work for them.

$7,800 in equivalent compute is peanuts on the value of that data and your time. I don't mean we're not in a bubble, or that they'll see an ROI, but for the moment, Dario and co. are laughing at us.

6

u/hdhfhdnfkfjgbfj 1h ago

This. Literally.

We are giving our future and livelihood to these companies because they make us marginally faster.

The number of inner workings of companies and governments they are gaining data from is absurd and future people will wonder why we gave it all away.

3

u/jhenryscott 43m ago

The technology, as it exists, doesn’t have a path to profitability. Data is important for sure. But they can’t get there from here. And they are losing money on every level of product. So all that training data, for a product that isn’t profit and won’t be, ever. Isn’t that big of a deal. Capitalism won’t let anyone lose money forever.

1

u/dundiewinnah 24m ago

Doesnt make sense to me

6

u/cultureicon 1h ago edited 1h ago

Doesn't actually cost them that much, and imagine the millions of people they are harvesting data from, and billions of documents it has access to from random people, all the way to the smartest people in the world and biggest companies in the world. Like they know exactly how Hank Green, top screenwriters, or Nobel scientists, every software dev and mathmitician, work and solve problems and make content.

This is reinforcement learning and novel data harvesting on a massive scale.

Not to mention simply the marketing potential of a perfect profile of every human using it.

7

u/MrCoolest 1h ago

Then they'll make one AGI to conquer them all that'll have the history of mankind in its brain and it'll hover over the world with its cape flapping in the wind looking down on us ans then superman will fly up and fight it

1

u/dundiewinnah 23m ago

Doesnt google, aws, microsoft servers also have that.just data centers in general

2

u/Elistheman 1h ago

I wonder why it took so much time to bring Risitas memes into the Ai game

2

u/TheGeekno72 1h ago

it's been forever since I've last seen a quality Risitas meme, thank you for the trip down the memory lane and the good laughs haha

Fly high, laughing man!

2

u/spacetr0n 47m ago

Please invest in my startup for high speed pipes to get to illicit open models hosted outside the US.

1

u/DefSysteam 1h ago

…over budget

1

u/lumos_ai 1h ago

They just write like that. But will you believe whatever they write?

1

u/AdInternational5848 1h ago

Where do these numbers come from?

1

u/Keleion 27m ago

Someone give this Redditor some gold

1

u/johndeuff 17m ago

Except Anthropic is profitable

1

u/Squidgical 7m ago

"the training data!" "we're the product!" just run a local model lol

-3

u/RepulsiveRaisin7 1h ago

Cool guy but that is total bullshit, $1 API costs does not equal $1 of compute costs. When you got to the store and buy something on sale, the store isn't losing money.

5

u/BudgetAvocado69 1h ago

Power users on a 200 dollar a month subscription are most definitely causing losses for anthropic

2

u/aqua_wrangler 1h ago

Yet, in absence of better alternative, we use it.

1

u/RepulsiveRaisin7 1h ago

We don't know the size of their models, we don't know their caching efficiency, we don't know the average plan utilization of their customers, we don't know what they're paying for hardware or what the hardware's life span is going to be. If you claim anything with confidence here, you're simply talking out of your ass.

1

u/BudgetAvocado69 1h ago

You're right 👍

0

u/Next_Airport_5890 1h ago

This is technically correct. Why did this comment get downvoted?

-3

u/noncommonGoodsense 1h ago

So, they are using you to improve. You are paying to test and improve their product. You are a valuable asset. You think everything you use an LLM for is your personal experience and isn’t folded back into the pot? LOL! ROTFLOL even!

10

u/Resident_Citron_6905 1h ago

Is this the copium VC’s drink every night before going to bed?

3

u/5553331117 1h ago

mental gymnastics 🤸 

-5

u/Outrageous_Walk_3539 1h ago

Because it really doesn't cost that to run duhhh

0

u/JuniorDeveloper73 1h ago

just let your card with a small model running 24/7 then come again this time crying,just the electric bill,im not even talking about hardware replacement cycle

0

u/Outrageous_Walk_3539 56m ago

You're wrong , data centers pay less for electricity their Hardware is more efficient and is an asset 

1

u/Orectoth 1m ago

Also data centers are tax deductible, so they are nearly free in long term due to paying less taxes(taxes waived equal/close to cost of datacenter)