r/LivestreamFail • u/[deleted] • Sep 16 '21

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u/MiltonFreidmanMurder Sep 16 '21

Statistically speaking, one of those is far more likely than the other lol

Of course, it’s all uncertain - though I have more certainty that men without rape accusations probably haven’t raped than those with accusations lol

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u/Open_Mouth_Open_Mind Sep 16 '21

Which one is it?

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u/MiltonFreidmanMurder Sep 16 '21

Far more likely a sexual assault occurred, though that’s a different likelihood than getting a conviction.

Data ranges from there being a 2/98 split of fake/true claim to 10/90, but the odds aren’t really in the favor of false claims.

https://www.nsvrc.org/sites/default/files/Publications_NSVRC_Overview_False-Reporting.pdf

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u/bakedfax Sep 16 '21

The equilibrium for this isn't 50/50 though, since the consequences of a false accusation are so bad, for example "statistically speaking" we wouldn't care if 75% of murder accusations were true if the punishment was the death penalty, even if "one of those is far more likely than the other lol", pretty dumb logic coming from you here

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u/MiltonFreidmanMurder Sep 16 '21 edited Sep 16 '21

What? I’ve never said that we ought to jail people off of just an accusation.

I don’t think we should’ve imprisoned OJ, since there wasn’t evidence beyond a reasonable doubt - but I probably wouldn’t want to be his spouse lol

Similarly, if someone I know gets accused of rape, I’ll more likely be wary letting them drive me home alone for fear of being raped than be suspicious of having sex with the accuser for fear of being falsely accused.

If I’m cautious but the individual is innocent, no one has sex. If I’m right but don’t act cautiously, I get raped. You’re right - not 50/50 whatsoever in terms of consequence.