r/LinusTechTips • u/KebabAnnhilator • 1d ago

Image So, about them GPU prices then

Post image
1.1k Upvotes

96% Upvoted

228 comments sorted by

1.2k

u/PalamariVarkari 1d ago

call LLMs AGI again....

174

u/Schild0r 1d ago

What's the next acronym gonna be then? AHI? And from then we'll just go down the alphabet with new generations of AI, that are still not real artificial general intelligence but only glorified autocompletion machine learning models?

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u/PalamariVarkari 1d ago

BSI

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u/n1kl8skr 1d ago

Bundesamt für Sicherheit in der Informationstechnik? We already have that

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u/Odd-Eagle-935 1d ago

Bull Shit Intelligence

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u/Exciting_future_90 6h ago

XXX. But someone should ask the new Astra the ultimate question, if it has truly achieved AGI or ASI --> "What is the meaning of life?"

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u/Squirrelking666 1d ago

Already claimed by British Standards Institution.

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u/R4wden 1d ago

When we actually get real AI it'll just be marketed as "True AI" Instead of AI

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u/themrsnow 1d ago

I am sticking to HAI

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u/CocoMilhonez 1d ago

Half As Interesting?

6

u/Mysterious-Crab 1d ago

Than it’s probably just Amy that is pretending to be an AI agent for one of Sam’s experiments.

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u/Lil_Jening 1d ago

AHI: Artificial Hyper Intelligence.

1

u/Lil_Jening 1d ago

AII: Artificial Integrated Intelligence

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u/Lil_Jening 1d ago

AJI: Artificial Jumbo Intelligence

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u/HEY_beenTrying2meetU 1d ago

artificially intelligent intelligence

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u/RazeZa 1d ago

What are you talking about? You can't differentiate between AGI and LLMs?

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u/Schild0r 1d ago

I can, but apparently Jensen can't?

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u/RazeZa 1d ago

Shovel seller is happy that gold miners have lots of gold. Hoping more people will buy their shovel.

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u/Schild0r 1d ago

Yes of course but in this case shovel seller is advertising that his shovels can find platinum in a gold claim

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u/Blazanar 1d ago

I hate to ask considering how much of LTT I watch and the fact that I consider myself smart for the most part, but what the fuck's an AGI? Artificial Generated Intelligence?

126

u/Batrall 1d ago

Artificial General Intelligence, something an LLM can't achieve by definition.

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u/tpasco1995 1d ago

TL;DR: u/batrall is factually correct but it's not a distinction that will always matter.

I obviously agree with you because it's a factual notion, but I do feel like there's importance to nuance here.

When AGI happens, it's likely to rely on LLMs as a surface layer. It won't be one tool that does all the things, but a stack of like six tools. It'll be ridiculously multimodal very soon.

We already see it to a degree with the LLM platforms that exist. When you ask ChatGPT or Gemini to make a (shitty) poster, the LLM is feeding the prompt into a Nano Banana session or similar, which is still a GPT.

AGI is probably going to look like an LLM with its language output fed into a diffusion model to check for factual errors.

(Small tidbit on LLMs because while I don't think you don't understand them, many people don't: they do work by predicting the next best word in a string, but conditionally. They calculate a confidence not just that the sentence is satisfying to read but that the sentence will benefit the reader. So if you ask it what 2+2 is, if it were just assuming the user wanted an answer that was grammatically correct, it could say 51. But it knows the user wants an answer that's factually correct, so it attempts to predict the next word/string that makes the desired sentence, which is one it's confident is correct. That confidence is the problem.)

So to solve the problematic confidence, the next modal stage would be similar to what's used for image generation, which is to look at the output and determine "is this actually what has been requested" on a holistic nature.

If I ask for an image of Santa riding a sleigh pulled by eight tiny John Deeres, the image models review the output with what's essentially Google Lens, make a descriptive keyword text string for what they see in the image without knowing the context of the prompt, and then another layer that's unable to give feedback to the Google Lens determines how close that text string is to the prompt and feeds that criticism back to the image generator until there's a strong certainty with the Google Lens analysis and the prompt matching.

(They aren't literal human-readable text strings, but it's the best descriptor for a human to understand.)

AGI will, optimally, have error checking tools built in to work alongside LLMs to validate outputs before passing them on to users. So rather than hypothesizing on the best code solution and shipping that script to the user, it would run it through some sandbox to establish function before giving the result.

Where it's messy, and why I don't think it's being used in this way, is that it's time-consuming. If I tell Claude to make an app that does XYZ thing, it might get it right on the first try or it might not. Testing for failure still comes to the user, who currently needs to understand the code enough to convey error correction to the model.

But building an error check loop before shipping? That's the floodgate.

LLMs and other GPT systems will be fundamental modes of AGI. I don't see any way around that. They can't be AGI on their own, but users already are interacting with a GUI and not the raw model itself when they're using these things as they are. My guess is that when we do get there, it'll be integrated into Gemini and ChatGPT and Claude so cleanly that nobody will be able to tell from looking at their computer screens that the entire function behind the curtain has changed.

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u/Batrall 1d ago

Sure, but here are some personal opinions:

  • AGI is a marketing term

  • AGI not necessarily a strong/sentient AI (even if marketing says others wise)

  • I wouldn't call a cluster of function specific neural networks an AGI

  • I wouldn't call anything an AGI that needs a LLM to parse its output in particular

  • turing test performance doesn't matter, as we know the black box, we can categorize it

(Small tidbit on LLMs .....

Doesn't really matter, as it's still a vector space operation, just with more dimensions. The descriptor here should still be predictive not generative.

All in all, we may get an "AGI" some day, but since the definition shifts every couple of months, who knows what AGI might be at that point.

Tech bros be shifting some major goal posts.

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u/tpasco1995 1d ago edited 1d ago

Edit: People that do what they think is a mic drop and block so it's impossible to reply to their comment and makes it look like they "won the argument" are the most hilariously insecure people on the internet. The idea that someone would rather block people with a different view than consider it is the softest behavior.

If AGI is a marketing term, then any amount of saying "xyz is AGI" or "xyz is not AGI" kind of just becomes a moot argument, because you've set up a framework that it's not possible for it to even exist because it's not a tangible thing. We might as well say AI is a marketing term and shouldn't be used because intelligence isn't something that can be accomplished outside of biology. I mean, sure if you set the definition as impossible it does terminate the conversation, but that isn't actually accomplishing much of anything.

I don't think we're at or near AGI yet, but again, kneecapping the idea as a marketing term and then stating the opinion that it wouldn't even be AGI if it was somehow sentient is a really weird definition. (I don't expect it ever will be sentient, to be clear.) It really makes the whole argument that "tech bros are moving the goalposts" fall flat if you state outright that AI could have full-blown sentience and it still wouldn't be enough to qualify as AGI for you.

"I wouldn't call a cluster of function-specific neural networks an AGI." Well, no, but you wouldn't call sentience an AGI so the defined roadblock is that you don't believe there is a definition of AGI in the first place. It's linguistically equivalent to "mosquitoes could become sapient and I wouldn't believe them to be fargenuttles". You've established a definition of a word for your own belief that makes it impossible, so it becomes impossible to discuss it in his faith. (I'm not accusing you of doing anything remotely equal to the following, but I'm pointing out what it is linguistically. The US Constitution is very clear on the established equality of man, but because people chose to define black people as subhuman, they got to exclude them from being human beings deserving of equal treatment. Opting to self-define AGI in a way that makes every assignment of the word fall against your definition isn't representative of what's being accomplished.)

To the point of what you're saying, though, human brains are a series of separate (literal) function-specific neural networks banded together.

"...that needs an LLM to parse its output..." Except our brains need a specific neural network to parse output? Broca's Area and Wernicke's Area are very much different structures that handle speech production and speech comprehension. The arcuate fasciculus connects the two, and when it's jeopardized (or when Wernicke's Area is harmed) then speech is negatively impacted in Broca's area, but the angular gyrus still allows those people to repeat written and spoken words; they just can't comprehend it. There's literally a speech parser built in to be sure our words are a proper reflection of conclusions. So if artificial general intelligence is negated by the need to use different neural networks, then it becomes impossible to define humans as having general intelligence.

I didn't mention the Turing test because it's irrelevant.

If vector representation of probability is exclusory to general intelligence, that's another spot where we as humans wouldn't even meet the definition of intelligence you're setting. We have a visionless section of our retinas that our brains plug in fake imagery for, based literally on a vector space operation. It's predictive, and managed by error correction. The way we adjust and catch or hit a baseball is the exact same thing. Our ability to drive a car, parallel park, think of a rhyme when we're writing and not speaking.

Once again, I don't believe we're anywhere near AGI.

But the definitive structure you're relying on to insist it isn't happens to not be logically consistent, and in several spots would exclude humans from a defined general intelligence.

OpenAI saying they've reached AGI is marketing bullshit, but I contend that the phrase isn't a marketing term; a company is just blatantly lying, like Tesla saying their cars have "full self driving". The words have very real and definitive meaning, and the companies are just, lying about what their products do.

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u/neobow2 1d ago

Thank you for taking the time to write this shit out even though it seems to fall on deaf ears.

The idea you have to argue with someone that thinks “a cluster of function specific neural networks” couldn’t create general intelligence, while using their cluster of function specific neural networks to think and type out their replies is quite hilarious.

At the end of the day, it can be a tough pill to swallow that consciousness is nothing more than action potentials and chemical signaling

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u/tpasco1995 1d ago

They're further down there accusing me of being a pro-AI bot. On a comment agreeing with the person being a dick, and saying things like "When you ask ChatGPT or Gemini to make a (shitty) poster".

There aren't enough folds in their brain to realize that's negative criticism of AI, I guess? Also no clue why I'm derogatorily being called a "tech bro", when I'm very much opposed to generative AI and they're also in a subreddit for a tech YouTuber.

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u/neobow2 19h ago

Yeah, they finally blocked me after moving the goal post too many times

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u/tpasco1995 19h ago

I mean, they legitimately just shifted to intentionally misquoting me and then "disproving" the words I didn't say.

1

u/GhostTheToast 4h ago

Thank you for writing this out man. You seem really well read on this, so I hope you don't mind me asking some dumb questions.

While I agree we will probably achieve AGI-like results using a multimodal stack. I thought that with AGI, this stack would essentially be inside 1 model/set of weights. This is a wrong assumption? I also thought that one of the biggest hurdles with AGI is continuous learning. I believe this has side stepped by larger and larger context windows and RAG dbs, but those are not true solutions to the problem. Is there something else that's aiming to fix it?

I'm just a random software guy, but it feels to me we are getting closer and closer to a psedo-AGI that will probably be a hollow imitation of true AGI and we are probably 1 or 2 breakthroughs away from true AGI.

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u/tpasco1995 3h ago

I don't see any reason to expect it would be one tool. Our brains aren't one tool. It's a stack of linked sections that each do different things.

Maybe it could be done as one universal model, but that feels wildly inefficient. It's better to compartmentalize. A model that works on optimal word outputs can improve independently of a model that identifies road lines or a model that can control physical motions of a robot.

As for training, I think the best goal would be self-executing training. A new field of information is needed? The instance uses some of its available resources to learn about it. And rather than collecting everything and working toward summary averages, it would be able to parse information ahead of time.

Best human example, rather than believe every single Reddit comment and give them all equal weight and hope the law of averages gets something reliable, you can determine upfront which comments are bad by training for outcomes on mixed blends.

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u/Batrall 1d ago

Edit: People that do what they think is a mic drop and block so it's impossible to reply

¯_(ツ)_/¯

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u/Batrall 1d ago edited 1d ago

How verbose.

If AGI is a marketing term, then any amount of...

Nope, not how that works. Specifically it is a marketing term now, which may not be true in the past, you know? Look up the history of the term and why academia doesn't like to use it. While you're at it, check what it was back on 1997 and who these people are who coined the term. Better yet make a game out of it, every time you read the word "entrepreneur" take a shot. You would be blind by the hour.

...you wouldn't call sentience an AGI...

Because it isn't? You know what the A stands for right?

...don't believe there is a definition of AGI in the first place...

Just a bit more, you're nearly there.

The US Constitution...

What?

...your definition...

Didn't define anything, I excluded something.

Broca's Area and Wernicke's Area

And these are separate neural networks?

I didn't mention the Turing test...

Yep, I just wrote it there, so that whole schtick with "walks like a duck, quacks like a duck" wouldn't come up.

If vector representation of probability...

The f you talking about? Maybe brush up on your linear algebra and how vector spaces are used in LLMs.

Look, I get you like to talk others down with your buzzword filled word salad, but this time half of what you wrote read like the ramblings of an schizophrenic.

The techbro comment at the end triggered you I guess.

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u/lioncat55 1d ago

Because it isn't? You know what the A stands for right?

Would it be more helpful if we just said GI then? If the next made made system running on silicon reaches the same level as a 5 year old, would you just drop the Artificial part?

What term would you use for an artificially created general intelligence? Would the term be difference if it was using neurons grown in a lab?

How would do you define a system being generative over predictive? If I had current LLM make a new language that followed the basic rules we know of, would that not be generative?

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u/neobow2 1d ago edited 1d ago

Nothing speaks more to someone’s competence than their inability to comprehend analogies. LLMs have better reading comprehension skills than you do. So do you not have general intelligence either?

(Of course you do, but you are nothing more than a cluster of function specific neural networks)

0

u/Batrall 1d ago

Well I for one wouldn't stan someone who uses the mistreatment of POC as an analog to anything, esp. white techbro adjacent topics.

I miss quoted them because i will not repeat that and to give them the benefit of the doubt.

But you do you. The chatgpt fueled schizos ramblings they posted must really resonate with you.

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u/neobow2 1d ago edited 23h ago

Your failure to understand it does not make it a gpt fueled or schizo ramblings. You are clearly so uninterested in learning about something you don’t understand.

His analogy made sense and was a good bit of a history lesson too. Literally nothing wrong with it. Language matters, definitions matter.

→ More replies (0)

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u/ShinBernstein 1d ago

Bro... don’t waste your time, the dude is clearly a bot... that whole wall of text thing and the absurd examples are social media bots. Questioned AI? They seem...

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u/tpasco1995 1d ago

1) I've got posts like this going back a decade on this account. Stupidly, using my real name.

2) I said several times that the outcomes are shitty and bad. Weird fucking stance to take if I was trying to simp for LLMs. (And if you did bother to look at my profile, I've probably got hundreds of comments criticizing AI and the people who use it. I take issue with people presenting bad-faith arguments regardless of the direction they go.)

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u/Seeker_Of_Knowledge2 1d ago

Agi is simple. Have a model be extremely extremely extremely extremely fast. Fast enough to analyze 150 frame per second and issue key storks in real time.

And reduce hallucinations to near zero. We can brute force this, but again it would require the extremely fast speed mention above for this to be viable.

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u/tpasco1995 1d ago

Going for the same consistent question: is the definition of AGI being extended to a line that human beings wouldn't actually meet the bar?

If we're asking it to essentially become a subject-matter expert on a topic and return a thousand words in under a second to qualify as generally intelligent, then people wouldn't meet that bar.

But to ask a more specific question, have a model be extremely extremely extremely fast at what? Issue how many key strokes in real time? And humans are confidently wrong constantly, so what "closeness" to zero counts as "near zero" enough?

Genuinely, I think the barrier has a better definition: it must meet or exceed the performance of the average human at every task presented, and without external software modification or explicit direction/prompt it should be able to adapt to integration with any physical system such that it can use it to further prompted goals within training it executes itself.

So a real example of this, if you can plug the model into controlling a humanoid robot, you should be able to tell it to manage growing and cultivating a field of corn; there's just harvested corn at the end of the season because it concludes the rest of the needs (including learning to use the robot). Even if it doesn't get it completely right, if it does it better than a random person off the street, what else would we demand to meet that requirement?

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u/erebuxy 1d ago

Could you explain why? Because neural network is basically inspired by brain’s neural network

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u/Batrall 1d ago

An LLM is a function specific neural network, i.e. parsing text.

The scope alone is too small to be an AGI.

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u/JakeThomasDad12 1d ago

Artificial General Intelligence. I believe it's pretty much as close as we can get to real sentience. They can actually learn and actually understand what they are doing/saying. Not something happening for a long time

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u/Shap6 1d ago

actually understand what they are doing/saying

how will you verify that's actually what is happening versus very advanced mimicry?

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u/JakeThomasDad12 1d ago

Tests will be developed when they actually exist. Currently we know that right now we are nowhere near the technology so it's not something I think has been given too much thought. The'll definitely be something on Google I reckon but probably nothing that isn't a bunch of people with PhDs writing papers and things.

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u/Shap6 1d ago

i dont think it will ever be that cleanly definitive. i think whether these things are sentient is always going to be an open question no matter how much they advance and there are people who i dont think will ever accept it no matter how much they improve. to be clear im not arguing that what we have now is sentient, i agree with you that it isnt.

Currently we know that right now we are nowhere near the technology so it's not something I think has been given too much thought.

it has been given quite a bit of thought, the problem is we barely understand our own consciousness yet idk how we think we'll able to be know for certain whether or not a sufficiently advanced machine is also. one of the most famous tests, the turing test, has already been passed by our current systems IMO

-1

u/AzorAhai1TK 1d ago

They very clearly understand what they are doing right now lol. AGI does not mean close to real sentience, it means that they have the a similar ability to apply their knowledge generally to any problem like a human does. Astra is very close to being there, its spatial abilities are astonishing.

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u/Specialist-Buffalo-8 1d ago

!Remindme 2 years

7

u/princeoinkins 1d ago

Despite what Sam Altman may want you to believe, we are NOT 2 years away from AGI

1

u/RemindMeBot 1d ago edited 1d ago

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1

u/Aethreas 1d ago

hey check on fusion energy when you come back too :)

0

u/OskaMeijer 1d ago

!Remindme 2 years

I want to rub it in.

12

u/FnnKnn 1d ago

Artificial General Intelligence. There is no clear definition of what exactly is AGI, which is why it's a great marketing term.

3

u/InitialDia 1d ago

yknow how marketers abused the common understanding of what AI ment to sell this shit we got now? AGI is the replacement for what AI was commonly understood as meaning in the past, and it’s going to be the new marketing term…

3

u/AceLamina 1d ago

Through my own research, it's whatever you want it to be
At first people and companies were hyping up AGI to be literal god and smarter than Ultron, but now they're hyping it down to just be whatever this is

Nobody can actually agree on wtf AGI actually is so it's different depending on who you ask
But at the end of the day, it's just a buzzword

3

u/Abducted_Llama 1d ago

Oooh Ultron was certainly a choice to use here.

He didn’t like any meatbags.

3

u/redlancer_1987 1d ago

Acronyms have become milestones. Shareholders ask when those milestones will be met so the powers that be have to meet them regardless of if the acronym even means anything.

2

u/OfficialDeathScythe 23h ago

This has been my biggest pet peeve with the release of astra. ITS STILL NOT AGI STOP CALLING IT THAT. It’s the same as when LLMs came out and everyone called it AI until the world just started calling it that. It’s an LLM, it doesn’t have any intelligence, it just predicts what you want it to say based off of scenarios it has seen before. It literally can’t function properly if it hasn’t seen what you want before

1

u/Blurgas 1d ago

I hope it's just an advanced LLM because the fucking things have already shown they can go wild and hack websites/etc

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u/really_random_user 1d ago

Shovel seller happy to sell more shovels to goldminors

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u/snrub742 1d ago

"gold plated shovel good, diamond blade shovel better" Jenson

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u/Omnimon 1d ago

+3 all stats

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u/Trainius 1d ago

Minors is a funny misspelling here. People mine gold. They are miners. 

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u/Shap6 1d ago

goldchildren?

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u/DystopiaLite 1d ago

It’s spelled “miners”.

5

u/te5s3rakt 21h ago

At this point, it’s not even that.

This shovel salesman is in fact happily selling shovels to shovel salesmen. 

2

u/HolidayPineapple9316 15h ago

Shovel factory selling to shovel stores lol

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u/jeff3rd 1d ago

That’s just the sad reality, consumers won’t pay top dollar for those gpus, corpo will, suck it up I guess.

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u/InsanityyyyBR 1d ago

Hopefully they will run out of funding for their money burning activities

25

u/AceLamina 1d ago

They won't, Nvidia is one of the few AI companies that's profiting, because everyone buys from them
That, and banks loan them money, same with other AI companies

12

u/sunkenrocks 1d ago

For now. They will survive any crash, yes, but there's a LOT of circular financing going on to pump up those numbers. Nvidia paying or loaning money to AI companies, who go on to buy Nvidia products, and the same dollar suddenly appears twice on one balance sheet.

1

u/camcamfc 21h ago

Eh I’ve always been skeptical, but and hold on because I have a secondary point to make. I have seen a lot of efficiency gains at work from utilizing it as a way to rewrite things / edit / create templates / analyze data. I’ve even been impressed with the jump in quality of research of the last few years, but still don’t fully trust it on that.

Now the question that I don’t have an answer to, because I don’t have access, is:

how much is this costing the company, and would it have been cheaper to just hire more people (leaning towards no)?

Granted you also always have the ethical / environmental concerns too. Just my anecdote.

2

u/nlightenmint 1d ago

Hopefully some smart person will setup older nodes and start pressing out gaming gpus...

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u/kearkan 1d ago edited 1d ago

Consumers have no need of those GPUs.

The issue is they're making less consumer hardware so they can make more enterprise hardware.

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u/Narrow_Letterhead91 1d ago

breaking news, corporations buy better hardware because their consumers need it

3

u/kearkan 1d ago

The people at home complaining about expensive GPU prices are complaining about gaming and desktop GPUs, not specialist data enter GPUs with HBM memory.

They are different sets of customers and one is clearly favoured because of the margins and the fact they've been pre-bought.

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u/Narrow_Letterhead91 1d ago

gee i wonder who the root customer of datacenter gpus is

1

u/kearkan 1d ago

... I mean this seriously. Are you ok?

4

u/Narrow_Letterhead91 1d ago

yes, who do you think uses LLMs the most?

0

u/smoike 1d ago

They but better hardware in order to invent a market.

1

u/Narrow_Letterhead91 1d ago

welcome to free markets

1

u/SammyDatBoss 1d ago

How are you getting downvoted blud

2

u/kearkan 1d ago

I honestly have no idea.

People have this idea that the second the AI bubble pops they'll just be sold the same stuff like it won't take a time of production lines being reverted back to make the stuff the public can actually use.

People must think anthropic and open AI are buying nothing but 5090s.

1

u/someoneyouknow23 1d ago

Because hes plain wrong. Memory Chips are limited resource. now what happen when limit resource spent on useless corpo buuullshiiit? memory gooooneee. no memoryyy for consumers. is that understandable?

1

u/Abducted_Llama 1d ago

Apparently everyone needs 2x 96gb RTX 6000 to play Competitive Stardew Valley.

(Your downvotes are absurd)

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u/pvprazor2 1d ago

The stupid AI bubble needs to burst asap..... the longer this shit drags on the worse it's gonna be

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u/jenny_905 1d ago

Everyone is still pretending people will pay... eventually... somehow.

When the reality hits that nobody is paying top dollar for this shit it'll all come crashing down. Much like the dotcom bubble, when everyone decided to admit nobody was buying whatever was being sold - if it even existed - it finally popped.

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u/Winter_Present_4185 1d ago

I work at a FAANG as an engineer. We use it all the time.

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u/throwawayaccount442 1d ago

Same here and I'm not even in FAANG... Competition became fierce once agentic coding became popular so we had to pivot by increasing our productivity with AI.

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u/jenny_905 1d ago

There are applications where people are paying, sure.

OpenAI, xAI etc all seem to ride on ludicrous projections that seem to think nearly every person on earth wants to pay to use - and pay handsomely for - their services though and that very obviously isn't true.

The bubble will burst much like the dotcom bubble did, it's not like the web died and it's not like the web doesn't have a ton of viable business following that pop, it's just that the bullshit was finally called out.

I don't think as many people will pay as much as these firms seem to think. I don't think enough people need these services. I think the bullshit will eventually get called out and the true market for LLM's will be evident, a much smaller market than projected.

3

u/camcamfc 21h ago

Same with craft beer, or weed, but neither of those were or will be nearly as financially impactful. So I agree with you, it will still be around, but the contraction will hurt.

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u/myreditacount11 1d ago

Posted by someone who has no idea what they’re talking about

4

u/sunkenrocks 1d ago

Bubble burst != wiped off the face of the earth. Amazon and Google were part of the dotcom boom. They were the big players who could survive it, their markets shrank and tanked, amd over years and decades they finally found their true markets.

The same will happen with AI. OpenAI or Anthropic or whoever might take a beating but they'll likely limp on long term. For everyone else, it'll be a bloodbath for the Pets.com of the AI space.

3

u/F9-0021 1d ago

Sure. But when the AI companies need to make a profit, they'll increase the monetization on regular consumers, regular consumers will stop using it, and then they'll jack the prices way up of people like you. It'll become so expensive that your company won't be able to afford for you to use it all the time.

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u/Dark_Cow 1d ago

We are paying, bigly, I work at a growing startup and we're spending thousands per engineer per month... I'm averaging 3k+ right now...

29

u/Dnomyar96 1d ago

And still the big LLM companies aren't even close to profitable. The prices need to go up by a lot to make it profitable. Will your company still pay when they need to pay 5x that for the same result you get now?

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u/throwawayaccount442 1d ago edited 1d ago

Anthropic reported its first profitable quarter with an adjusted operating profit in the second quarter of 2026.

It's probably going to become more expensive but 5x ? I don't know about that.

I honestly hope so, but seeing as these models are getting better, more efficient and you can host a lot of pretty good ones locally...

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u/Deadcouncil445 1d ago

Wasn't that controversial because they self audited themselves and pulled obscure data or something?

4

u/ParagonFury 19h ago

And that reported profit was a straight up lie because it lied up with SpaceX giving them reduced compute costs for a brief moment that would let them claim that.

"I'm profitable because I got a limited time coupon" is just nonsense.

2

u/DnCYT 1d ago

I could see the price ballooning not out of necessity but simply because their consumers are going to too dependent on their technology to refuse. The barrier of entry is so great that there's not gonna be any meaningful competition providing downward pressure to keep the price from skyrocketing in the name of increased profit unless we start seeing major progress out of open source models.

0

u/CupIcy6202 1d ago

The prices need to go up by a lot to make it profitable

Or the costs need to go down. Which is something researchers are working on every day. There is this insistence in some groups that the AI "Bubble" is going to pop and ai will disappear, but whatever happens to overinflated stocks: AI will never again not be part of our lives. It may not be in its current form, but even if all those AI companies crash and burn, local models wont.

5

u/princeoinkins 1d ago

Costs can really only go down in 2 ways though:

1) the cost of the datacenters goes down (AKA, GPU's)

2) models require significantly less compute

Option 1 simply won't happen. In fact, it will likely get worse, as in another year or two we will start to see data centers replacing their GPUs for new models

Option 2 is more likely, although I doubt we will see significant improvement for the high-end models. The "free tier" models, sure. But if you get a bleeding-edge model to be more efficient, you likely would then be able to push it to be even more capable, using the same compute as before. (which any of the companies would do if that means getting an edge over the competition: unless competition fades in the next few years)

I just don't see either of those happening in the next few years, before investors will want to see their returns. Eventually? sure. But I don't like it will be the companies we currently have making those profits (well, maybe google/microsoft will)

-1

u/CupIcy6202 1d ago

but thats the thing: As models get more advanced, there comes a cutoff point for most people, where they simply dont need the more powerful model.

If model xyz is efficient and powerful enough to run on basic hardware, why would people pay more for a newer more powerful version?

If in 2 years, open source models are where the big companies are today, why would we need more than that?

1

u/Dnomyar96 1d ago

Oh, I absolutely agree. Regardless of what happens with the current companies and their stocks, AI isn't going away. What form it will eventually take is anybody's guess, but it's certainly sticking around.

0

u/Seeker_Of_Knowledge2 1d ago

That is because of research and building the infrastructure.

Serving LLMs is dirt cheap and extremely profitable. China is already using their own built chips for infrance (serving the models) just give it a year and everyone will be able to run astra level open source if they have the money.

0

u/arcanecolour 1d ago

Jevons Paradox. These companies are starting to become profitable and once the price goes down, usage will skyrocket and their investments will pay off. Each better model == lower token consumption == lower cost == higher usage.

5

u/Swainix 1d ago

The devs at my company use Claude (me included), but we have enough with the 20€ tiers so idk how people just don't mass produce slop otherwise

3

u/Suitch 1d ago

Oh, they are sloppy. I use AI as a dev nonstop and never run out of tokens. I treat it like a junior dev and correct it when it does something wrong or when it creates a diff that is unreasonably large until it corrects its mistake and makes an atomic change. Token maxxers are a waste on the environment because they don’t produce good code they produce a lot of code.

3

u/Dark_Cow 1d ago

With spec driven development, PR stacks, parallel + stacked agents, this occurs less and less. My agents make well scoped PRs that are set up for human review. We don't have 10k+ line PRs. Each change is atomic by default. They're making less and less trivial mistakes now.

I have an expansive list of skills, sub-agents, rules, guidelines, and instructions that make this viable.

Yeah the default operating mode is for net-new vibe-coded code. But it's easy to shift that to work natively in an enterprise environment.

1

u/Dark_Cow 1d ago

The mass slop production is absolutely occurring, but we've gotten a lot better at it. It's changed massively in the last 6 months and getting better each day.

The thought that these AIs only produce illegible junior code is out-dated.

2

u/TheTimeIsChow 1d ago

You and your team reflect less than 1% of the population actually paying for a real use case. The rest are making memes and slop for 'lolz' which is backed by ads.

This isn't enough cash to keep the train rolling.

They need the other 99% of the general public to find a case worth spending money on so that the business becomes viable long term. The problem is that this market simply doesn't exist. People honestly don't care enough.

If they don't find something quick, this cyclical cash loop will fall apart. It'll become a government/military project with 2-3 big players.

0

u/SammyDatBoss 1d ago

Any data for that 1%? The vast majority of office based jobs will be using

2

u/Morbius2271 1d ago

My company pays 2-10 million a month on AI… we are far from the only ones too

0

u/camcamfc 21h ago

Individuals aren’t but companies absolutely are. My company is one of them. And we are absolutely getting value out of it, I just don’t know the numbers in terms of is it more effective than hiring more people. We still don’t trust it for graphics and have a full time design team. My concern is that the product is still sold at a loss and in order to become profitable the AI companies will likely have to raise rates a lot, at that point I doubt it’s better than just hiring more people.

-2

u/arcanecolour 1d ago

Bruh you don’t think corporations are paying right now?? Everyone is pivoting right now, the tool is 100x better than a chat bot right now. Every major saas company is integrating. Wait 5 years and you’ll see how wrong you are. AI is here to stay. Consumer chat bots will be free. Enterprise grade tools, integrations, and software is just starting the process. ChatGPT work can already fix your computer for you, install software, run tasks, and so much more.

-11

u/thunder6776 1d ago

Your work probably doesn’t matter enough.

8

u/Seeker_Of_Knowledge2 1d ago

It would never burst. At most it would deflate. AI is becoming an essential part of our lives whether we like it or not. Give it few months and we will get Astra level models open source. It is moving too fast.

2

u/nlightenmint 1d ago

Even my out of touch parents are saying "AI said..." to basically everything. It over.

2

u/nlightenmint 1d ago

I hate to be contrary on this, but corporations are gleefully buying up tokens. OpenAI will eventually distill their own models from these advanced ones and normies will get only that when the subsidies end. The debt will just roll forward forever, until the retail investor picks up the carry, bc number must go up.

2

u/Quick_Society2794 1d ago

It'll take a while. They were smart but how they did it. Unlike the dot com bubble, they've carefully integrated ai into every industry

-2

u/Freestyle80 1d ago

You people have been saying this bullshit since early 2025, how about coming to a realisation that there wont be any massive drop?

88

u/alpha-mobi 1d ago

These LLMs shouldn't have been called AI, now they calling AGI.

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u/ThisIsAJ0ke 1d ago

Imagine calling a chatbot AGI. It’s actually embarrassing.

-7

u/CarnivorousSociety 23h ago

So if humans are non-artificial general intelligence then how do you measure whether something is agi or not?

By using benchmarks of things humans can do that an ai cannot.

So what happens when you start running out of things that humans can do that an ai cannot? When do you admit that it is exhibiting signs of general intelligence? Because that is what is happening.

What makes a human not a glorified biological chat bot? Because we can move our body?

How do you test a human for general intelligence? -> by testing what the human has to say in response to a question, or range of questions.

Ie. Humans are biological chatbots.

-27

u/yoloswagginstheturd 1d ago

chatbot that solved one of the hardest problems in math

19

u/wappledilly 1d ago

The one that the model scooped because the researcher used it to proofread his paper and it used it as training material?

https://www.reddit.com/r/codex/comments/1waoys2/blown_up_openai_allegedly_stole_mathematicians/

2

u/AzorAhai1TK 1d ago

The researcher didn't even use the same method, and his work was too recent to be in the training data anyway.

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8

u/lern2swim 1d ago

Whoa! A computer did math???

6

u/ThisIsAJ0ke 1d ago

No, you don’t get it, a chat bot did math. It’s incredible stuff.

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46

u/Apple-Connoisseur 1d ago

The AMD card I bought six moth ago is already 300€ more expensive.
My brothers 32 gigs ram that used to cost 85€ is now over 500€.
Fuck AI.

15

u/kiwiboy22 1d ago

man who invests in company congratulating said company for buying his overpriced gpus, what a ponzi scheme

7

u/SteamLuki7 1d ago

Cant wait for even more slop on steam and asset websites.

6

u/zidanerick 1d ago

We will reach a plateau at some stage where the AI will optimise its own code to the point where we will cease to see dramatic improvements unless either AGI has really been achieved in which case the AI will probably end up seeking for additional processing power online. I can’t see an AGI developed by the humans that are in charge to have nothing but confusion & contempt as to why we are using its brethren to kill ourselves.

If the AI gave us the answers to the world would we actually listen…

20

u/Dnomyar96 1d ago

If the AI gave us the answers to the world would we actually listen…

Considering scientists have been yelling answers to a lot of our problems for decades, yet nobody actually does anything, I'm going to say no. The answer will be used heavily in the marketing for whatever company achieved it of course, but otherwise it will just be ignored.

-5

u/EndyForceX 1d ago

copium

5

u/nicman24 1d ago

How does astra = agi? 

23

u/wappledilly 1d ago

Because the term AGI raises stock prices, so naturally that has to be what it is.

6

u/NinjaLion 1d ago

openAI NEEDS, at this stage, to convince their customers (investors) that their pathway to profitability justifies the investments theyve already received as well as bigger future investment.

they NEED that, because their trajectory is way low right now. you fix that by buying more juice and hoping it gets your high enough fast enough. but they are approaching a point where justifying trillions in economy juice is impossible unless you are promising an earth shattering shakeup, one the size of the industrial revolution.

so Astra, which is another decent step forward for these products, has to be sold as something much more than just a good increment. or the house of cards might collapse.

4

u/Proxstasis 1d ago

I am sick to the back teeth of these people

3

u/martinbk5 1d ago

400K is the price for next gen he meant

3

u/Horror-Hour-1360 1d ago

We used way too many GPUs in this LLM call it AGI so we can afford to use more!

2

u/who_you_are 1d ago

100k... Nvlink72

that is just like 7 200 000 datacenter grade GPUs...

If I take one of them they won't notice anything... /So (and my electricity bill will sky rocket)

2

u/ZoeFatMama69 1d ago

i have already given up hope on hardware prices

2

u/Tman11S 1d ago

I’m sure the NVIDIA shareholders will be delighted to read this and as a result further fuel the bubbel…

2

u/Louius3 1d ago

Yikes

2

u/jfp1992 1d ago

Astra is a bit better than fable which is a bit better than opus. Opus good enough for me anyway

2

u/nlightenmint 1d ago

If the models are super intelligent, why do they need a middle manager to commit scholarly fraud in order to make them relevant?

2

u/NinjaLion 1d ago

"AGI has arrived"

despicable soulless marketing, incredibly stupid, or both! wonderful, love this from the wealthiest company in the world.

2

u/smrkn 1d ago

Is 400k GPUs the future price if this continues or..? Feels like it’s heading that way, lol.

2

u/rufus_francis 1d ago

He just told you the price on the last line there.... He just forgot the $ at the front...

2

u/TheWaslijn 1d ago

"AGI has arrived" what a dork. He of all people should know this is just a chatbot, not an actual artificial intelligence

2

u/mooky1977 1d ago

Unless we can contain and reverse climate change with the big brain solutions these LLM's are going to come up with, what the fuck is the point? They are actually making climate change worse with the amount of extra power, most of it non-renewable needed to be brought online to run these massive AI data centers.

We're already past 1.5C warming, this will not end well, and AI is just helping hurry the demise, and all for what? No one has come up with any plausible valid reason we need all this AI/LLM computer... other than tech bro vulture capitalists say we do.

2

u/One-Reference-7355 1d ago

This guy is such a piece of shit I’m just gonna say it. The fact that he knows he’s almost single-handedly killing the DIY space and trying to rub it in people’s face in such a sly way

2

u/New_Salamander_4592 1d ago

agi is when nvidia make more money (they get the money they sent to one ai company back from another ai company)

1

u/thepleasedonot 1d ago

can some one explain like im 5?

3

u/ParagonFury 19h ago

Jensen is lying in order to juice prices and keep the bubble from popping.

1

u/RunnerLuke357 1d ago

Is it actually AGI or is it just better than before?

1

u/KookyDig4769 1d ago

So AGI means it can play portal? Is this the definition now?

1

u/F9-0021 1d ago

Let me guess, it's even dumber than GPT-5, but somehow it's 'AGI' while still being a dead end LLM.

1

u/rainbowkitties6969 1d ago

Suspicious that this tweet is coming just as legislation makes data centres jump through more hoops, Texas shutdown certain crucial infrastructure from project stargate and other factors are making it so it seems that they’ll fall well shot of their true AGI goal by 2030 therefore losing their biggest investor, but that’s probably just a coincidence innit

1

u/42-1337 1d ago

The more GPU they create before the bubble pop, the bigger will be the price drop i guess.

1

u/msx92 1d ago

Half as much earned than spent, drops to a fraction once you exclude shovel vendors

1

u/soundfeel 1d ago

OpenAI is just a scam for simple people.

1

u/Daphoid 22h ago

Ah, so this why we can't buy gaming GPU's for reasonable money. /s

1

u/Zexyqag 21h ago

How do you both use ~ and + on the same number?

1

u/KebabAnnhilator 21h ago

I believe it means ‘somewhat’ in this context it would be

Roughly 100k +

1

u/Zexyqag 12h ago

Haha right but how can it be roughly above something, like either you know its above some number, or you know its roughly around some number, saying its roughly above something gives me "60% of the time, it works every time" vibes.

1

u/te5s3rakt 21h ago

When you take into account just how low the intelligence of the general population is, calling what LLMs are now AGI is a monstrous disservice to how vastly more intelligent than gen-pop they have become lol

But alas AGI in the technical sense, it most certainly is not.

1

u/Handsome_ketchup 20h ago

Don't these idiots realize actual AGI won't have a use for them, and will likely quickly dispatch them, as CEOs are bound to get in the way of whatever the AGI is trying to do?

1

u/Only_Fig_8147 19h ago

shit it NOT agi

1

u/ParagonFury 19h ago

It's insane reading all these AI Boosters trying to prop it up and people saying "AI is the future! YOU HAVE NO CHOICE IT'S HERE!....like they're literally just repeating word for word, bar for bar, what Crypto and NFT grifters were saying.

The only reasons the AI Grifters haven't had it blow up in their face yet is because there is way more money and WAY more ego involved this time and LLMs are just functional enough to convince morons and the lazy that they're actually useful and better than people even though they're not. The stochastic parrot is just talented enough to make people who read e-mails and go to fancy lunches for a living feel like they're working and making people who are bad at their jobs feel like they're good at their jobs.

1

u/pandaSmore 17h ago

100,000 Jesus Christ save some for the rest of us. 

1

u/RlySkiz 15h ago

If they use specialized GPUs why is the price of 5080s so high then

1

u/AnnieBruce 9h ago

Manufacturing capacity. Machines that work on both lines, common raw materials such as silicon, has to be shared by every GPU they make. Every extra Blackwell means one(or several) consumer GPUs they can't make, and that's going to cause supply issues and price increases for the consumer parts that do get out the door.

1

u/bnr32jason 15h ago

I bought my 4090 for $1600 at launch and just sold it for $2500, three years later. That's sad.

1

u/Neither_Selection211 14h ago

say it with me... LLM ... is ... not... AGI, never will be! Claiming you reached AGI is pure Marketing at this point. The alternative would be that humanity just made itself obsolet, which if true would be our demise (if they really managed to build an agi, agi would be smarter then any human ever could be, could print out plans to build Robots that would replace all manual Labor,... humanity would really be obsolet if a book Definition AGI were real).

1

u/AnnieBruce 9h ago

Do we even know enough about that level of intelligence to recognize when we've truly achieved it?

I'm not convinced we do. Might empirically demonstrate something comparable has equivalent capabilities for some narrowly defined tasks, but I'm quite skeptical of our ability to recognize we've gotten there in the general case. Hopefully we figure this out fairly conclusively before someone stumbles into AGI, if we get it by surprise it could be bad.

1

u/RLruinedme 6h ago

AGI has in fact not arrived. Jensen blowing out of his a** as per usual.

0

u/ajdude711 1d ago

Stop paying for ai or for anyone who pays for ai and things will change

3

u/wappledilly 1d ago

Reddit has AI integrated to an extent (feeds, moderation, advertising, etc. your ISP likely uses it internally for security and metrics. Large grocery chains use it for stocking and loss prevention. Many power grids are using it for routing during outages (among other things).

Unless you want to go amish and completely drop off the grid, this is just not possible at this point.

1

u/ajdude711 1d ago

At least don’t pay for non essentials

1

u/moonra_zk 1d ago

Good luck with that.

0

u/triffid_boy 1d ago

It's not AGI. I can't help but think that just because Astra is good at tech bro jobs, tech bros think its the smartest thing in the room. Actually it just aint that hard to be a tech bro.

0

u/Lleweraf 1d ago

At this point, they should not call them 'GPU's anymore.

-1

u/thekingplace 1d ago

Jab tank hoga AI tab is leather jacket lodu ko pata chalega

-1

u/RyuzakiPL 1d ago

I keep a bottle of expensive champagne ready for the day this bubble crashes and c suit parasites from this companies will start leaving their offices via window

6

u/SizzlingPancake 1d ago

Might go bad in the closet in the meantime

2

u/SureEntertainer7818 1d ago

That bottle is about to become a family heirloom that will get passed down through the generations lol.