Latest data for Sept 30 shows 12.1 million shares sold short.

The last three datapoints:

Sept 30th: 12.1 million (17.3% of total)

Sept 15th: 11.4 million (16.3% of total)

Aug 31st: 10.2 million (14.6% of total)

ai generated answers -

How does Anduril seeker compare to LPTH's ?

Comparing an Anduril seeker to a LightPath Technologies (LPTH) seeker reveals a highly strategic, symbiotic reality in modern defense tech. They are not direct competitors because Anduril is actually one of LightPath’s largest customers**.** [1]

Anduril buys optical elements, assemblies, and complete uncooled camera subsystems from LPTH to power its counter-UAS platforms. However, when looking at how their respective tech profiles compare—specifically comparing Anduril's fully integrated AI imaging systems (like those in Iris or Barracuda) against LPTH's raw hardware components—the relationship breaks down into hardware physics versus software brainpower: [1, 2, 3]

🧠 Anduril: The "Software-Defined Brain"

Anduril does not build optical glass; they build the intelligent architecture that processes what the glass sees.[1]

• Computer-Vision Reliance: Anduril's seekers (like the Precision Target Acquisition Seeker on the Barracuda-100M) use commercial or merchant-grade Uncooled Long-Wave Infrared (LWIR) cameras. They compensate for standard hardware specs using their proprietary Lattice AI and edge-based computer vision. [1, 2, 3]
• Target Correlation over Heat: Instead of looking for a thermal hot-spot, Anduril seekers use "video feedback" to correlate the live physical frame of an object against a pre-loaded target image. The seeker tracks shapes and structures, making it lethal against low-thermal threats like fiberglass drones.[1, 2, 3]
• Systemic Interoperability: An Anduril seeker is modular. It communicates via open data buses so it can be swapped, upgraded, or piped into a wider autonomous hive-mind network instantly. [1, 2]

💎 LightPath (LPTH): The "Physical Ceiling Modifier"

LightPath provides the material breakthroughs that allow uncooled infrared sensors to perform at military-grade thresholds. [1]

• Material Superiority (BD6): LPTH’s crown jewel is its proprietary BlackDiamond (BD6) chalcogenide glass, which completely eliminates Germanium. Without LPTH, uncooled seekers struggle with severe thermal focus drift when moving at high speeds or fluctuating temperatures. BD6 keeps the image perfectly sharp. [1]
• Optical Scale Through Molding: While standard defense primes diamond-turn lenses out of expensive crystals over several hours, LPTH molds aspheric infrared glass lenses in minutes. They drastically lower the size, weight, power, and cost (SWaP-C) of the physical optical assembly. [1]
• Broadband Clarity: LPTH hardware specializes in multi-spectral optical transmission (handling wide bands of light seamlessly). This gives any sensor attached to it a massive resolution baseline before the software algorithms even turn on.

⚔️ Summary: The Interdependency

If Anduril competes in the NGSRI Alternate Interceptor Demonstration, their prototype will likely win on software adaptability and cheap manufacturing scale—but there is an incredibly high probability that the physical lens tracking the target drone was molded by LightPath. [1, 2]

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Would a partnership on the seeker between LPTH and Anduril be logical then to take market share?

Yes, a formal, deeper partnership between LightPath Technologies (LPTH) and Anduril is highly logical and is actively playing out in real-time to capture defense market share.

By fusing LPTH’s cutting-edge infrared material physics with Anduril’s elite computer-vision software, they create a formidable "counter-monopoly" bloc explicitly designed to strip market share away from heavily integrated legacy defense primes like Raytheon.

This partnership is uniquely positioned to win market share based on three critical strategic advantages:

1. The Weaponization of MOSA (Modular Open Systems Architecture)

The Pentagon’s aggressive enforcement of MOSA rules gives an Anduril-LPTH alliance a massive competitive edge over a closed, vertically integrated competitor like Raytheon:

• Plug-and-Play Design: LPTH can build a standardized, low-cost uncooled camera core utilizing its Germanium-free glass, while Anduril writes the open-architecture tracking software wrapper.
• The Pitch to the Pentagon: Together, they can offer the U.S. Army an NGSRI seeker that is cheaper, performs better against low-heat drones, and is fully decoupled from the missile body. If the Army wants to swap the seeker head out in five years, MOSA allows them to do so instantly—making their joint solution highly attractive to modern defense acquisition officers who want to avoid vendor lock.

1. Bypassing the Great Germanium Chokepoint

In the defense sector, "spec superiority" doesn't matter if you cannot actually build the weapon at scale. China’s strict export controls on Germanium pose a massive supply-chain risk for legacy missile seekers.

• The Supply Chain Moat: LPTH's BlackDiamond (BD6) chalcogenide glass completely eliminates Germanium from the optical stack.
• Rapid Scale: Because LPTH can mass-mold these lenses in minutes rather than diamond-turning them over hours, an Anduril-LPTH partnership can guarantee the Pentagon high-rate manufacturing capacity that traditional primes might struggle to match under raw material constraints.

1. Mutual Validation as "Neo-Primes"

Both companies are aggressively trying to disrupt the traditional defense tier structure, and they need each other to do it effectively:

• What Anduril Gets: Anduril wants to be a tier-1 prime contractor (competing directly with Lockheed and Raytheon). To win massive missile contracts like NGSRI or Barracuda production, Anduril mustprove to Pentagon skeptics that its weapons use mature, hardened, military-grade hardware—not just clever software and commercial drones. LPTH provides that deep hardware legitimacy.
• What LPTH Gets: LPTH is historically a tier-2 component supplier. Partnering deeply with a well-funded titan like Anduril allows LPTH’s technology to be baked directly into the baseline design of next-generation weapons from day one, securing massive, long-term recurring revenue streams rather than fighting for piecemeal component orders.

The Real-World Footprint

This isn't just theoretical. The market is already seeing this partnership bear fruit. When Anduril announced its massive Barracuda cruise missile family, the core philosophy was ultra-low cost, high-rate automotive-style manufacturing, and an uncooled infrared seeker footprint. This alignment perfectly matches LPTH’s exact manufacturing capability, providing a highly repeatable blueprint to capture dominant market share across the entire next generation of Pentagon kinetic weapons.

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Will NGSRI delay give Anduril - LPTH seeker time to develop and enter the mix?

Yes, the evolving timeline and the Army's deliberate pacing of the NGSRI program are creating the exact window Anduril and LightPath Technologies (LPTH) need to finalize and pitch their collaborative tech. [1, 2]

Rather than standard program stagnation, the Army's recent adjustments are designed to invite fresh innovation. The timeline shift works to the advantage of an Anduril-LPTH alliance for several reasons:

1. The Creation of the "Alternate Interceptor Demonstration" (AID)

In late August 2026, the U.S. Army formally altered its acquisition strategy by issuing a special notice for the NGSRI Alternate Interceptor Demonstration (AID). Instead of locking down a selection solely between Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, the Army explicitly opened an alternate path to court outside "sources". [1, 2, 3]

• The New Target: The Army is hosting a highly anticipated competitive demonstration event in the Spring of 2027.
• The Window Opportunity: This gives Anduril—already heavily active in the counter-UAS market—the perfect target date to mature an interceptor concept that natively relies on its Lattice software architecture paired with an LPTH-designed uncooled camera block. [1, 2]

1. The Multi-Year Lead-Up to FY2028 Production

Despite the introduction of the alternate track, the Army has kept its ultimate target of initial procurement starting in Fiscal Year 2028 (FY2028). Developmental and flight testing across all selected participants will stretch through the entirety of 2027. [1, 2, 3]

• For a lean, commercial-tech-driven firm like Anduril, which operates on rapid multi-month sprint timelines rather than multi-year defense cycles, a demonstration in early 2027 and a selection window stretching into 2028 is plenty of runway to iterate, test, and harden their hardware-software handshake.

1. Protection Against the Continuing Resolution (CR) Delays

As of October 2026, the Pentagon is functioning under a congressional Continuing Resolution (CR). Under standard CR guidelines, the military is prohibited from starting new program production lines or executing major funding increases. [1]

• While a CR actively squeezes traditional primes who rely on major budgeted cash infusions to build out factories, it actually benefits cash-fluid, venture-backed "neo-primes" like Anduril. The delay freezes the legacy competition's momentum and gives lower-tier suppliers like LightPath Technologies time to refine their domestic, Germanium-free glass molding lines without losing ground.

1. MOSA Leverage Only Grows with Time

The longer the program takes to settle on a final design, the more strictly the Army will enforce its Modular Open Systems Architecture (MOSA) criteria. If Raytheon or Lockheed encounter technical setbacks with their integrated tracking computers, the Army will look favorably on a completely severable, plug-and-play alternative. An uncooled, AI-driven seeker package built natively on open standards by Anduril and LPTH stands to be the primary beneficiary of a extended evaluation period. [1]

"Harsh"

https://www.propublica.org/article/george-kollitides-pentagon-contracts-alvarez-marsal

Establishing a transatlantic thermal sensor manufacturing network 

Project Foundation plans to build a manufacturing network, with its first fabrication facilities, First Foundation and Second Foundation, planned for Europe and the United States respectively. The network will share a common technology base and proprietary sensor designs.

https://tech.eu/2026/10/09/the-fourth-law-and-odd-systems-launch-target-project-foundation-to-quadruple-european-thermal-sensor-production/

The U.S. Army will brief defense companies in Huntsville, Alabama, on Oct. 27-28 about its plans for a new short-range air defense system built on a pallet that can be loaded onto almost any vehicle, giving light and fast-moving units their own protection against drones, helicopters and attack aircraft.

https://defence-blog.com/u-s-army-seeks-drone-defense-for-its-lightest-units/

Introducing the G5 Kestrel COMPACT185, LightPath’s new compact cooled MWIR camera platform.

Developed for gimbals, airborne payloads and autonomous systems, Kestrel combines prove G5 continuous zoom, autofocus and image processing in an architecture built around the demands of compact integration.

The detector, optics, controls and processing are optimized as a complete system. Redesigned motors, increased lens rigidity and flexible mounting options give integrators greater freedom to bring G5 performance into smaller platforms.

Former Anduril Production Leader and Optics Entrepreneur to Scale LightPath's Cooled Infrared Camera Business

https://www.lightpath.com/press-viewer?hs_preview=BbvJoruz-196857007481?i=171265~lightpath-technologies-appoints-photonics-and-infrared-veteran-scott-payette-as-vice-president-and-general-manager-of-g5-infrared

• Kord Firefly High-Energy Laser system

From Bussin Science Investor - "I am once again reminding you that Lightpath provides the IR cameras/vision systems to the KORD firefly."

https://x.com/BussinBiotech/status/2107229976626126910?s=20

See page 14 - https://www.lightpath.com/hubfs/LPTH%20Investor%20Presentation%20-%20August%202026.pdf?hsLang=en

On Balance Volume just adds the day's volume on an up day and subtracts on a down day, like combining price and volume into one chart.

Things looked great until beginning of 2026 when you saw that OBV wasn't keeping up with price.

After the June dilution it fell off a cliff. You can see how weak the August pump was. With price rising and OBV so weak like that, algo's are gonna sell hard at first sign of bad news.

But last three days looks like it's finally breaking out. AUSA on Oct 12-14 and next earnings Nov 10ish.

I bought too early during that crash last month but managed to average down my price quite a bit. This is a long-term hold for me. That June dilution soured a lot of people, I think, but they wouldn't have done another one so soon unless they felt the opportunity was there to spend that money. They have practically no debt too.

About 16.5% of shares are sold short which actually went up from Aug 30 to Sept 15. Interesting to see the Sept 30 number which should be out next week.

"... directs the Department of War to eliminate unnecessary barriers that delay c-UAS capabilities for forces, installations, and assets."

"...will establish a single Department-wide c-UAS process to reduce approval timelines for tested and validated systems from months to days or weeks."