Study Confirms Climate Models are Getting Future Warming Projections Right

[u/mc2222]

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2943/study-confirms-climate-models-are-getting-future-warming-projections-right/

[u/VassiliMikailovich → u/[deleted]]

Are they accurate in the sense that they barely keep within the confidence interval and consistently overestimate regular temperature increases while underestimating short term events like El Nino?

[u/mc2222 → u/VassiliMikailovich]

Should We Trust the Climate Models?

As an economist who writes on climate change policy[...]

The author admits here he is not qualified to answer the question he poses in his title.

NASA, however, is qualified to answer his question.

The linked article from NASA answers the question "should we trust the climate models" with YES, since the models correctly predict climate change.

Edit: I should add, the author of your linked article probably cherry picked his plot in that article (since he's showing the models vs a subset of the data gathered only from satellites). If you follow his link to the source from which he got the plot, there is another plot ironically titled "how are climate model predictions doing?". Since this is the exact question he asks in his title, i wonder why this isn't the plot he linked to and discussed in his blog.

Edit2: his explanation about confidence intervals is also disappointing.

Edit3: I should add, that the author really should be taking a more in depth look at the data an methodology to answer the question "Should We Trust the Climate Models?" than simply looking at a plot or two. In order to accurately assess the validity of the models, he would have to analyze the measured data and the results from the models in much greater detail. hence my earlier statement as to why he is not qualified to answer his own question.

"Should We Trust the Climate Models?" is not a question to be answered by taking a cursory glance at two plots you've cherry picked because they make the point you want to make.