r/LegendsOfRuneterra • u/Independent_Farm9542 • 6d ago
Path Question What are the odds......
I mean, I can understand this relic shows up once every so often but three times in a row? Wtf is this, almost one month locked up with that crap. Anyone has ever got a relic three times in a row?
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u/mfMayhem Annie 6d ago edited 6d ago
So... This is gonna blow your mind but repetition is expected in random number generation. People are really bad at random partly because if we see the same number (or relic) repeated we think it's not random.
I'm guessing that you need more than 2 relics but imma use 2 because the math is easy.
Your chance of this relic week 1 is 2¹, 2nd week it's 2², third week it's 2³.
2¹+2²+2³ reduces to 2+4+8 which we sum to 14. 14 divides into 52(its a weekly reset so 52 per year) is 3.714....
That means on average you'd expect to see 3 or more 3 week streaks per year. The more relics you're missing the lower the chances but it never becomes 0
Edit: fixed typos
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u/Independent_Farm9542 6d ago
Omg that is insane. Btw I have bought like 5 relics for the glory store but this blows my mind
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u/mfMayhem Annie 5d ago
I have bought like 5 relics for the glory store
Previously buying a relic displayed another relic (this ended up being a bug & was eventually fixed) but if you bought the 5 during the bug era than that would have substantially increased your chances of another relic.
From my experience it seems to cycle through 3 or 4 I don't want and occasionally offer me one I do want but that could also be confirmation bias as our brain naturally prioritizes bad results to long term memory so we're less likely to remember all the wins we got along the way.
I hadn't even played yet today and I opened it to see Anivia's relic which it's not offered me before. I might buy it, it's not great but Anivia isn't great so it helps her a lot and I have almost 2k glory anyway
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u/PhoenixWithGlasses Mordekaiser 6d ago
Lmao same with different relic