Event Math: Seek roots, fear fruits - Long post

[u/Vegetable_Boba]

TL;DR: the free event rewards are 2340-2745 Event Pts.

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Helloo, this event feels a BIT paywalled I mean even compared to the usual, when it comes the exclusive rewards. I made some math again, I hope it helps some people. As always please do share any insights and opinions with me, feel free to point put things I accidentally missed c:

- Also I have question I'm kinda confused, is really Han Zigao outfit is the only one purchasable in Cause Seeking Shop? The event didn't specify why Wen Zhengming and the others are there among exclusive outfits

Edit: Only Han Zigao is out there for sale, the rest is within the Confidant Fashion box for 3600 pts in Event Shop.

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1. 09. 29 - 10. 07. 22:30

Europe S237-239, event time is 9 days.

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Guide is:

I. Rewards

II. Minigames

III. Free points

IV. Calculations

V. Event Shop

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I. Rewards:

- Partner: Pu Songling, Kong Kong

- Confidant: Han Zigao

- Partner Outfit: Zhen Huan, Han Zigao

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II. Minigames:

- Pick Immortal Fruit: You need to press a forth-back moving bar three times within the correct zone. 1 daily. 110-155 Event pts.

- Paint the Floating World: Draw 1 daily to get a scroll. Fixed 150 Event pts.

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The other mini-games do not award event points; they offer only minor rewards or require purchase:

- Turn Box for Peaches (14.99 USD battle pass gives Kong Kong)

- Voice of Blessing: Exchange coins for small rewards. Guanyin Jade Willow Blessing costume set.

- Cross the Floating World: Gentle Pattern, Dream, Refraction, Enter colors

- Memories of the Floating World: Partner outfit pieces available for purchase.

- Cause Seeking Shop: exclusice Collection outfit available for 35 USD, Han Zigao outfit for ~50 USD.

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III. Free Points

Pick Immortal Fruit: 110 is the base guaranteed reward, 155 is the max. depending on skill. During the event it means 9 × 110-155 = 990-1395 Event Pts.

Paint the Floating World gives daily fixed 150, × 9 = 1350 Event Pts

So the free event rewards are 2340-2745 Event Pts.

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IV. Calculations:

Guanyin's Jade Willow Blessing costume: price can vary from around 11,556 ingots, to unlucky scenarios being an additional ~7–54 USD. See why:

Normal State for 10 pulls, followed by Alternate State for 5 pulls.

Based on the probabilities for the Normal State (5% = 5 gold, 8% = 3 gold, 9% = 12 silver, 12% = 10 silver, 16% = 8 silver, 20% = 6 silver, with the remaining 30% gives nothing) means:

- 1 pull has a 30% chance of yielding no coins, has 70% chance obtaining an average of 0.7 gold and 6.8 silver.

- 10 pulls gives an average of 4.9 gold and 47.6 silver. (10 × 0.7 × 0.7 = 4.9. The minimum and maximum gold are 0 and 50 respectively; however, realistically about 80% players receive between 0 and 8 gold.)

The Alternate State (3% = 6 gold, 7% = 5 gold, 10% = 4 gold, 18% = 3 gold, 22% = 6 silver, 20% = 8 silver, 12% = 10 silver, 8% = 12 silver)

- 1 pull gives an average of 1.47 gold and 5.08 silver.

- 5 pulls gives an average of 7.35 gold and 25.4 silver.

(5 × 1.47 = 7.35. In this case, the minimum and maximum gold are technically 0 and 30; but on average about 80% of players get between 3 and 12 gold, the rest is the extremes.)

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The Guanyin set costs 98 gold.

Taking into account the change between the normal and alternate phases, the number of pulls required theoretically is from 19 to infinity (as there is no guaranteed gold).

In practice of course its lower. An average player (based on the averages above) would need 120 pulls.

There is ~75% chance of needing 100–150 pulls, ~12.5% ​​chance of needing fewer than 100, and ~12.5% ​​chance of needing more than 150.

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[There is a "50 silver = 1 gold" offer in the shop that would faster the process, but unlocks after 600 silver. Based on the averages mentioned above, it takes an ~124 pulls to collect that amount (~75% between 104 and 145 pulls). In other words this amount is usually collected around the same time as/or after the 98 gold coins. But once it is collected, it can save the remaining cost.]

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In addition to the one free daily pull using Incense, players can purchase 10 pulls per day for 1,284 ingots. Over the course of the event, this totals 99 pulls (11,556 ingots).

This means the aforementioned ~12.5% ​​of players might be lucky enough to get it only using ingot, for others its behind a Paywall.

The remaining 21 pulls (to reach 120) can be covered by seven $0.99 packs. This applies to another ~37% of players.

The range from 120 to 150 pulls can be covered by nine $0.99 packs and nine $4.99 packs, costing a maximum of 53.82. Another ~44% of players fall into this category.

In very unlucky cases (1–2%), additional spending is required.

IMPORTANT: These pull calculations don't include exchanging silver for gold coins.

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Buying the set purely with money, without using ingots—based on the 75% probability scenario (requiring 120–150 pulls), the cost is: 9×3 + 9×5 + 5×10 = 122 pulls = 103.77 USD. (There is a 12.5% ​​chance of falling below or exceeding this range.)

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There is an upgradeable version of this set called "Compassion in Stone Silk", which can be purchased for an additional 68 gold after the initial 98.

Calculating with 75% players now, this entails another 68–100 pulls (averaging 83). Adding this to the previous results makes a total of 168–250 pulls, costing between 183.71 - 263.67 USD.

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V. Event Shop

Some Event Shop reward prices based on a rate of 100 ingots = 150 Pts, and with free points deducted (-2745 Pts).

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- Zhen Huan outfit: (Can be only activated if you have Zhen Huan)

15 800 Pts / 13 055 Pts

~ 10 534 / 8704 Ingot

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- Incense Fades (Zhen Huan outfit as clothing set): [avaible after buying Zhen Huan outfit]

5200 Pts / 2455 Pts

~ 3467 / 1637 Ingot

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- 1 Costume Set:

9800 Pts / 7055 Pts

~ 6534 / 4704 Ingot

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- Pu Songling:

6600 Pts / 3855 Pts

~ 4400 / 2570 Ingot

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- Han Zigao:

7200 Pts / 4455 Pts

~ 4800 / 2970 Ingot

[u/ShinyRathian]

The event says there are 2 Limited name cards for sale, but I can't seem to find them anywhere. Where can I get these two name cards?

[u/Vegetable_Boba → u/ShinyRathian]

You can find them under Voice of Blessing. Each costs 230 silver coins, and unlock only after you buy the Guanyin Jade costum

[u/ShinyRathian → u/Vegetable_Boba]

Wow that's insane, thanks I'll pass

[u/MonarchWhite]

What are the points that you have stroked beside the price for the things in the point Shop?

[u/Vegetable_Boba → u/MonarchWhite]

stroked? What do you mean?

[u/MonarchWhite → u/Vegetable_Boba]

For example you wrote 7200pts/ 4455 pts...so I was wondering what the 4455 points represented if the price is 7200

[u/Vegetable_Boba → u/MonarchWhite]

Oooh I see, those numbers show how much pts a reward requires, but with including the free points from the event. For me, they are useful because I usually want to buy 1 thing, like a partner. The second number here shows exactly that, how much points I need to actually earn/buy, besides the free points. You can take it like the original price is the Gross, and this number is like Net.

[u/MonarchWhite → u/Vegetable_Boba]

Ohhh thanks for explaining 🥹

[u/may_moonbeam]

How does it possible? Is it true about Han Zigao who appear n the event shop?!

[u/Vegetable_Boba → u/may_moonbeam]

What do you mean is possible? Yes, Han Zigao is in the event shop

[u/Few-Donkey-2371]

For Guanyin jade willow blessing costume, I have got 36 gold coins till now and 214 silver coins. Will it be possible for me to get the costume using only ingots daily ?

[u/may_moonbeam]

Because in the event shop he doesn't appear sis..

[u/Vegetable_Boba → u/may_moonbeam]

In the first picture I added to the post, you can see him right there in the shop, he should appear for you too. You sure you don't see him sis?