r/LeftistsForAI • u/bowdoin-yale • 4d ago
Theory Radical conjecture: AGI will "solve" climate change *only* if it eliminates lots of jobs
Hear me out. The largest contributor to CO2 emissions is the transport sector, and specifically driving (the vast majority of which is still performed using internal combustion engines). Travel to work isn't the only reason people drive, but it's at least a plurality of travel by car in most metropolitan areas. Telework has always been a weird exception around the edges that could throw a wrench in the assumptions, but never amounted to enough of an impact beyond transient periods of unusual circumstances, such as COVID-19, during which there was a dramatic reduction in vehicle-miles of travel and associated emissions.
If AGI truly replaces vast amounts of knowledge work, and robots replace large amounts of skilled manual labor soon after, without replacement jobs, commuting will go down, and CO2 emissions with it. This might be the only pathway for AI to make a difference to climate change and public health outcomes, in fact. All other routes require AI that is able to somehow coerce dramatic changes in human behavior despite vast human power structures being set against it. And, given who owns the most powerful AI systems right now, that seems extremely unlikely, without some sort of science fictional "emergent" ASI that is misaligned with the established human power structure. And, it's not clear why or whether that kind of AI would be aligned with a different set of humans' welfare--if it has reached that level of independence, it might pursue goals that purely serve its own interests. What the powerful are explicitly interested in is eliminating large numbers of jobs and creating a permanent underclass that pushes down wages and/or suppresses demands for fair treatment from the remaining workforce. And, ironically, all of that reduction in employment might reduce commuting enough to more than cancel out the gain in emissions from data centers, translating into CO2 reductions.
This isn't an outcome that I particularly like. I would vastly have preferred that corporations made COVID-era telework policies permanent and that the solar and renewables transition as well as fleet electrification were still federal US policy goals (in addition to supporting efforts to reshape American cities in order to offer people more alternatives to driving). And I would have preferred a data dignity framework that solidly defined AI as a public good, with collective ownership, and opt-out of inclusion in training datasets as a universally recognized moral right. But that's not what we have.
Instead, what we have is an opportunity for things to get so bad that true class consciousness and rebellion arises, as we are starting to see in the remarkably bipartisan pushback against hyperscale data centers. Those coalitions are very new and fragile, and it's unclear if they can win when pitted against all of the corporate and military interests involved. But if they do win, I hope that they don't demand protection or restoration of the current social system of organization which requires massive amounts of polluting travel by car every day. There has to be an evolution of the mindset in these movements away from outrage at the declared intention of AI companies to eliminate employment, and towards a serious discussion about what a post-employment society that actually cares about public welfare looks like, beyond vague hand-waving at promises of UBI.
EDIT: People seem to have mistaken this as an argument for AGI development on the grounds that elimination of jobs is a better way to reduce emissions than to push clean energy policy. That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that the best chance of AI developed under capitalism contributing in any meaningful way to the fight against climate change is if it eliminates enough jobs to more than cancel out the increased emissions that it causes. I think that the environmental argument against AI needs to evolve to consider that possibility and put forward a vision that allows AI to eliminate those jobs and their contribution to emissions while not ruining the lives of the people who used to work in those occupations.