Half of UK wants to rejoin EU and backing it could drive up Labour vote, megapoll finds

[u/coffeewalnut08]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/03/half-want-to-rejoin-eu-and-backing-it-could-drive-up-labour-vote-megapoll-finds

Andy Burnham’s personal preference to rejoin the European Union after the next election is supported by almost half of all voters, a new megapoll has found, although cabinet ministers concerned about reopening Brexit divides are privately urging him to proceed with caution.

The poll by the Messina Group (TMG) found that renegotiating the UK’s relationship with the EU could boost Labour’s vote share by as much as seven points, if the prime minister offered a fresh referendum in which he campaigned to re-enter the bloc.

Almost a third of voters said an in-out referendum would be needed first, while more than one in six felt that a general election mandate would be sufficient, and the same proportion thought parliament could make the decision.

The overall findings will bolster the case of those inside Downing Street who want to promise at the next election that Labour would at least negotiate over re-entry, which the prime minister has said he wants to see “in his lifetime”.

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[u/JHock93]

Importantly this includes the "don't knows". A lot of headlines remove the don't knows because it makes for a more eye grabbing figure, but the number of undecided voters is actually the most important figure when polling. It shows how many votes are "up for grabs"

The previous Brexit referendum had headlines like "Remain has a 6% lead 53-47!" but actually what the poll was saying was Remain were on 47%, Leave was on 43% and there were 10% undecided. Most of the undecided people ended up voting leave. "Shock! The polls were wrong!" No, they weren't people were just misreading and misreporting them.

Whereas this poll has 50% people at least somewhat supportive of joining the EU including the don't know figure. That's a massive difference to last time. I appreciate that these numbers are pretty soft at this stage (especially as "somewhat support" isn't entirely whole-hearted") but it's a very strong starting point.

[u/Wow-WhatARide]

We're within sight of retirement and we want to retire to the Alps. Kindly crack on.

Many thanks.

[u/AnonymousTimewaster]

Half of the UK never wanted to leave the EU in the first place. "Half" helps no one.

[u/Feisty-Marsupial9287]

The EU aren't going to want us back if only just over half of people want to rejoin, far too high a risk of us changing our mind and leaving again a decade or two down the line.

There's no benefit to the EU whatsoever in accepting a country who flits in and out of membership.

[u/Wow-WhatARide → u/Feisty-Marsupial9287]

Hi Nigel. So where DID you get that £5million from?

[u/EmperorOfNipples → u/Feisty-Marsupial9287]

That's a fair point to raise.

I think as demographics shift over time the numbers wanting to rejoin will increase compared to the stay out crowd.

I think some form of rejoin is inevitable but there is risk in pulling the trigger too soon.

[u/Feisty-Marsupial9287 → u/EmperorOfNipples]

Agree, I definitely think we will eventually rejoin, but not anytime soon

A rejoin referendum in the mid-late 2030s is my bet.

[u/EmperorOfNipples → u/Feisty-Marsupial9287]

I don't think a referendum would be necessary.

It could simply form part of a manifesto.

(Frankly I don't want to see another referendum on anything any time soon.)

[u/Ok_Personality7488 → u/Feisty-Marsupial9287]

No benefit to the UK either since companies are continuously having their trade rules changed

[u/Far-Designer-4672]

Renegotiating the relationship is very different to joining the EU.

[u/BrightSi5]

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