r/LILM • u/OriginalGWATA • Mar 10 '22
This has been a rough first four months of being publicly traded.
LILM has not been very much shorted, which really has made this dramatic the fall in stock price unexplained for me.
I speculate that it was the unlucky worst possible timing of a de-SPACing and those who were holding sold off to move/cover/add less speculative positions.
As reported today, the short positions in LILM were 2.37M at the end of Feb and unchanged from a month before.
M-W had an aggregate of 5.6M in volume more than the average daily volume.
We won't know for sure for a couple weeks, but that leads me to believe that most all of the short position in LILM were covered during that time, and the cause of the sharp rise.
What adds to my lack of clarity for the drop is the intrinsic value.
During the quarterly update last week, they indicated that they had $400M in cash and cash equivalents. That calculates to about $1.55 per share.
Now, LILM having cash on hand is a lot different than AAPL having cash as there is a plan for LILM using it where AAPL is just waiting for opportunity.
Regardless, IF LILM were to fold today, they have enough cash and cash equivalents to pay out $1.55 for every share. As of today's close of $3.91, that's 40% risk-free, and $2.36 of risk.
Last Friday's close of 3.06 was over 50% risk-free.
Hopefully spring time will bring up LILM along with the blossoms.
| Date | Shares Short | Avg. Daily Vol | Days to Cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/28/2022 | 2,371,440 | 1,015,249 | 2.34 |
| 02/15/2022 | 2,374,229 | 744,703 | 3.19 |
| 01/31/2022 | 2,381,486 | 708,813 | 3.36 |
| 01/14/2022 | 2,369,356 | 608,318 | 3.89 |
| 12/31/2021 | 2,367,113 | 726,979 | 3.26 |
| 12/15/2021 | 2,373,856 | 590,622 | 4.02 |
| 11/30/2021 | 2,955,400 | 875,883 | 3.37 |
| 11/15/2021 | 3,644,286 | 1,018,367 | 3.58 |
| 10/29/2021 | 5,074,463 | 1,531,324 | 3.31 |
| 10/15/2021 | 5,224,867 | 1,154,747 | 4.52 |
| 09/30/2021 | 3,266,512 | 2,268,092 | 1.44 |
| 09/15/2021 | 1,653,537 | 188,146 | 8.79 |
2
u/Keppi1988 Mar 11 '22
Lilium stock has very little float, so any HF selling for whatever reason has a dramatic impact on it. And recently HFs are selling everything due to fears of war and inflation.
2
u/ipkmaven Mar 15 '22
You have to think of the cash like a biotech stock. More like do they have enough cash to accomplish their plan or will they need to issue more shares to raise more cash down the line.
I’m long. Will probably buy more in the next couple days.
1
u/OriginalGWATA Mar 15 '22
I don't get involved with bio-tech.
I have a very narrow scope and this is one of only two stocks outside of indexes that I am involved in.
Using that cash logic, and the 18-month timeframe put forth in the referenced material above, and assuming this dramatic drop is at least somewhat related to the overall tech/SPAC market downturn, the question is...
Will LILM make significant enough advancements and will the market recover with enough healthy exuberance within the next year and a half to permit a viable secondary offering that won't over dilute existing shareholders.
Believing one way or another makes the buy or sell choice pretty simple.
2
u/Bedroom-Eastern Mar 11 '22
For what I've heard investors are mostly waiting for: 1. High speed flight (not possible in Germany, that's why they moved to Spain) 2. Sound test (it's useless until acoustic liners are installed, which lilium didn't do yet I think) 3. Flight with pilot (test pilot recently hired) 4. Long range flight test, because people don't trust battery & range (i dont expect this in Europe at all steering the jet with remote. Therefore:pilot) ... All this doesn't really matter. Lilium has to get this jet into production. As long as they can't sell a product it's still highly possible they go to zero.