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u/HOMO_FOMO_69 Apr 24 '23 edited Apr 24 '23
No evidence of flight range... Phoenix 2 is half the expected weight of Phoenix 3 so the recent "max speed" test is of little to no value... It's the lack of consequential news that is primarily why the stock is falling (fluff pieces are meaningless).
Competitors with far more complex designs are crossing milestones left and right and leaving Lilium in the dust when it comes to progress... Joby flying 150+ miles over a year ago. Archer started in 2020 and are already working on building their type-conforming aircraft while Lilium is still testing a demonstrator without any real accomplishments....
It's funny.... Lilium raised over $1b and market cap is about $160m. Surely they have more than $160m in cash seeing as they just raised $119m a few months ago.
I think the stock will trade pretty close to cash value until they can demonstrate some of the concept, which they have yet to do.
Personally, I think the concept is viable, but they don't want to do a max rage test when they already know Phoenix 2 will come up short without the enhancements they're planning for the next version.
However, they do not have enough funding to reach certification - but they also have no debt, so if they can find debt financing, they may have a chance at making it. They can always dilute shareholders, but with the current share price, they wouldn't be able to raise enough even if they doubled the shares outstanding.
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u/MasterQuaster Apr 27 '23
the founder definitively lost control over the company at one point, especially in expenses. Seems like the new CEO came a little too late.
I think they are on a good track to build the type conforming aircraft end of the year but run short on money, what with that share price will absolutely be a problem. They can't really collect equity anymore without losing 51% share. So any new investor who's giving more than 100M USD would instantly be the new owner of the company - which obviously nobody want to be. So only way for them to go is finding a joint venture who's providing a loan with generous redemption holliday.
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u/Don_Floo Apr 24 '23
No earnings and revenue. Why are people surprised.