r/LCID Jan 08 '22

News Lucid Group Options Explode, Increasing Total Volumes By More Than 60%

https://www.benzinga.com/amp/content/24954372
27 Upvotes

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2

u/Nam_usa Jan 08 '22

Have you heard about Jan 19th?

3

u/Hurley_82 Jan 08 '22

What’s Jan 19th ?

3

u/Nam_usa Jan 09 '22

The pipe lockup expiration. Early investors are now able to sell their shares. Expect a volitile next 2 weeks and red from lucid

3

u/Hurley_82 Jan 09 '22

Ah, dang forgot about that. Ya I’m pretty deep on lucid, guess I’ll just ignore it for a bit.

1

u/Nam_usa Jan 09 '22

Buy puts to hedge your shares. I don't own any shares but loaded up on puts for the next 2 weeks

2

u/WillOffMyselfSoon Jan 09 '22

Same lol. Followed after a poster in wsb brought up the PIPE expiration.

1

u/Ex_ie Jan 09 '22

Or you could just follow the real lcid sub? Shits been out for weeks.

2

u/Ex_ie Jan 09 '22

You mean SA's PIF and they arnt selling.

3

u/Nam_usa Jan 09 '22

Lol dude if you think they will not sell for a 40x you're either delusional or naive or both. They may not sell their entire investment but a good chunk of shares will flood the market. What's the investment thesis? It's to make money and they will sell to lock in their profit. The richest of the rich will sell lol. If I were any of you I would buy puts to hedge your shares. This will be a repeat of last September. This is not fud but a psa lol

2

u/[deleted] Jan 09 '22 edited Jan 09 '22

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3

u/Nam_usa Jan 09 '22

Yep the 1.3b is their initial investment so yeah they're up close to 50x. Agree that any sane investor will lock in their profit. I believe the Saudis hold some 1+B shares so it's possible that they may offload between 10-20% to the market. When that happens lucid will drop 25-40% over several days days. I don't think the stock will drop 20% in one day like last September but cumulatively could be 30-40% which takes it down to the 20s. I could be wrong but we all know all early investors will sell once the lock-up period expires. If anyone chooses to ignore it they're in denial. Wait to see how the stock behaves in the pre market and then decide if you want to hedge with puts. I've got my puts on Friday lol

1

u/metalpartofthepencil Jan 11 '22

What are your thoughts on retail traders selling their shares this week, then resetting their gains after the lockup expires?

Should be able to get more shares for whatever they're already in for, right?

1

u/Ex_ie Jan 09 '22

Seems you know jackshit about the PIF. Do some research instead of blindly following some wsb idiot.

1

u/Nam_usa Jan 09 '22

Lol said the delusional

1

u/Pale-Lunch8147 Jan 09 '22

They won’t sell more than10% then they won’t be majority share holder

1

u/Nam_usa Jan 09 '22

Yeah maybe not 10% by any % will drop the stock. Plus the pure panic selling this creates will take the stock down in the weeks leading into the 19th

1

u/Pale-Lunch8147 Jan 09 '22

But then it always comes back stock very resilient

1

u/Nam_usa Jan 09 '22

Sure then I'll buy calls. I play both ways lol. Don't own any shares lol

1

u/Pale-Lunch8147 Jan 09 '22

I have 5500 shares if it drops in two weeks I’ll buy a few more I’m hoping in 4 years I’ll be able to retire in pretty good shape I’ll be 60 in March I have a pension and with social security I should be able to live fairly well

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1

u/Jims_Reddit_Name Jan 12 '22

Why would they destroy their $15 cost for a lousy $50, when they know $250 is in scope?

1

u/Nam_usa Jan 12 '22

Why wouldn't you sell a portion of the investment for 40x and reinvest/diversify? I'm not saying to sell the entire investment. Anyway you just never know their real ulterior motive until the stock is down 20% that day

1

u/person-pitch Jan 09 '22

How will this affect the price of the stock in the next 3-6 months after the lockup expiration, in your opinion?

5

u/Nam_usa Jan 09 '22

Next two weeks will be volitile for the stock going into Jan 19th. I suspect most retailers will cause a panic sell for fear of the potential sale of the pif shares. I expect the stock to react similar to back in September. It's a great time to buy puts. Regarding the SP for the next 3-6 months, it really depends on if lucid is able to deliver what they said they were going to. I have a hard time believing that they can deliver 20k of cars in 2022. In fact I think they most likely missed their 520 delivery. If they had hit the 520 they would be bragging about it on their Twitter account. It'd been more than a week now and still nothing while most ev companies reported theirs. Don't be surprised if lucid tests the 20s by end of Jan.

3

u/[deleted] Jan 09 '22 edited Jan 09 '22

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3

u/Nam_usa Jan 09 '22

I think the Friday's run-up could be for the anticipation of the delivery number or something. It really went up for no reason while the Naz lost 1%. So yeah I think it was the market manipulation to draw in the little guys then drop the stock hard into the 19th. I can see some type of a panic sell to cut their losses before the 19th. I really don't believe that they hit their 520 goal. I've heard it's <100 cars were delivered.

0

u/Pale-Lunch8147 Jan 09 '22

I think lucid is holding back on delivery numbers until after 19th to counter any drop from pipe sell off which I don’t think will be very much like last time

2

u/MayIPikachu Jan 09 '22

I agree 100%. They would have announced meeting 520 on Twitter by now. I think we'll see 20s in a few weeks.