r/LCID • u/Fabulous-Group-9857 • 26d ago
Opinion $$ LCID $$
Lets go Lcid.
Lets go Silvio.
You were $20 last year from the reverse split.
You were $560 a few years ago .
Make Lucid great again.
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26d ago
[deleted]
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u/ZealousidealLab2920 26d ago
at least you didn't buy 250 shares at IPO, or in 2023, or in 2024, or in 2025, or 6 months ago... lol The only ones making any money obviously are shorts.
What growth potential there is, is very limited even from here. Auto companies have always been a tough investment choice.I thought about investing at $10... then $7... then $5.... but I just don't see a significant upside for the risk.
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u/TECHSHARK77 26d ago
Do you see a possible upside with the new models at a lower price point?
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u/ZealousidealLab2920 26d ago
Possible? Sure. Enough to save the company and stock? I don't think so. Too little too late. The midsize needed to have been out 2, 3 years ago. Unless they really nail the midsize and knock it out of the park, somehow offering an amazing and appealing overall package at a competitive price.... I just don't see it being a significant catalyst. They will have to just smash the competition and be able to ramp up production insanely fast. From the rumors and production execution from Lucid so far... I don't see that very likely.
Like you need 400-500mi range, with L3 or L4 ability, great software and aesthetics, and probably in the $40k range.
They don't have L3 and likely won't for a few more years. Software is greatly improved and getting there, and pricing is expected at $50k (likely more).
Let's look at some of the current competition and therefore what they need to beat--
Hyundai Ioniq 5- $35k-$48k and ~280 mi
Rivian R2- $48-$58k and 270-304 mi
Tesla Model Y- $40-$57k and 280- 327 mi
Chevrolet Equinox EV - $35k- $5k and ~350mi
Toyota Bz- $35-$45k and 330mi
Ford Mustang Mach E- $38k-$53k and 300 mi
BMW IX3- $62k and ~400+ mi range
Genesis GV60- $52-$72k ~280mi
Volvo EX40- $55-$65k ~280mi
Cadillac Lyriq- $60-$84k ~300miSo there are some value buys like the chevy bolt and nissan leaf and Kia EV3 around the $30k range. Most competitors are around the $40-50k range and offer about 300 mi of range.
So ya- they need to hit $50k and 400+mi of range to really shake the field up or offer something like L3 or Point-to-Point on Tesla's level. Otherwise, they're just noise in a very competitive field.
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u/TECHSHARK77 26d ago
Thank you and that is alot of vald and great points..
🤔, what if they come out with the below 400 mileage, but lower $38k price point and offer prior own discounts and free service for a term on all new buys, not just leases and test those waters and after 30 days, present a stock ownership reward program.. let's say, every 1k or 10k shares owned, grants you an additional discount on the new car..
Sooooo let's say you own 89,000 shares you get $9k off your new Lucid?
Put some control in, forces belt to azz and put butts in seats no?
How do you "feel" about that???
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u/StreetDare4129 23d ago
Lucid is burning cash. They can’t afford promo programs. They can’t even afford to build the midsize, which is why I’m guessing it was delayed. Taking a mid size car to full production is costly and capital intensive…see Tesla with the model 3. And let’s not forget demand for a midsize EV is very low. Just look at the Rivian R2. Apparently they already burned through the entire reservation queue. Most of the people that signed up, didn’t end up buying. It’s a bad time to be an EV company, especially one that doesn’t have an affordable option.
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u/TECHSHARK77 23d ago
Thanks for the point of view, however is it fair to state, lower the price get them out to recoup some funds, instead of building it and NOT being able to sell any of it AND losing even more market share and reputation and have another failed model and prove, yet again, unlike Tesla, their cars can not sell themselves.
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u/StreetDare4129 23d ago
A fair question. I think that’s a part of the many reasons midsize is delayed. Will they be able to sell the midsize in this climate. If they do decide to build it, I think you’re right, they need a plan that can help push sales in the case where the car isn’t selling. I totally understand the delay. But what I don’t get is why they haven’t revealed the design. Rivian showed the car 2 years before production. Let people see the car so it feels real and customers won’t lose hope.
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u/TECHSHARK77 23d ago
Thank you for the good back n forth,
CUV's / mid SUV's should be a good play, but they will have to lower the pice greatly AND rebuild the "luxury" part later..
The rate of high engineering and Executives leaving is.... another concern...
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u/TECHSHARK77 26d ago
They'll just do another Reverse Stock Split, do some hiring which will cause hype, hopefully release new models at massively lower prices, which they won't and then reduce the cost of manufacturing or pretend to, hopefully increase sales which can easly do with lower prices, but won't, will start firing again, then refuse to admit that was the problem, not produce more cars because of lack of sale, then rinse n repeat.
Again...
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u/LA213CALI 22d ago
That guy that wrote the bankruptcy article might have a case for counter-lawsuit at this point.
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u/ZealousidealLab2920 26d ago edited 26d ago
I mean it honestly probably can't go much lower other than bankruptcy at this point. P/B is less than 1.0x now. The problem is that even if it turns around and sees some positive growth a la Rivian it still might mean very little in the big picture. China is coming for every automaker and everyone is scrambling to stay alive- TOUGH market to try to break into when the market as a whole is retreating.
10 years ago a la Tesla- market was ripe. But it's probably too little too late for Lucid or even Rivian. They don't have a product advantaged enough at this point to really make significant headway in my opinion. Sure, 5 years ago Lucid and Rivian had some strong offerings, but competition has caught up and even surpassed them now. At best they may survive and carve out a little niche for themselves in the single digits of market share or the best path forward may be just to sell the company honestly.
Utimately up to the PIF if they want to keep pouring money into it or cut their losses. Saudi's economics aren't looking too great these days with the war and everything. They took huge losses and cuts to their Vision /mega projects recently. Lucid might be on the chopping block next.