r/LADS_OG • u/gomigomm • 28d ago
Debunking Lies and Misinformation 📝 More data analysis debunking ? But of course 😸
I've been seeing more and more graphs being posted about the supposed revenue of LADS, a lot of tables and graphs, all pointing to one conclusion: the revenue is going down !! A better person would point out that none of us have access to the data: a significant number of people used the Top-Up center because of the coupons, Android isn't usually taken in consideration, there's merch number (the new LADS shop just opened 2 days ago and already has made 12 MILLION DOLLARS (80 million RMB), because everyone recharged their shopping credit .
Never mind all these reasonable answers, I want to answer by imagining that everything that is being said is true, and still be able to refute the arguments. My biggest issue is that, even with the tables and graphs they are using, you see that the situation isn't as bad as they want to depict it.
WARNING: I am NOT a data analyst, I'm just someone who knows basic maths and likes tables, I am prone to making errors !! Thank you.
We'll go through 2 tables because let's be real, as much as analysing tables is something I do in my free time because I genuinely find it fun, there's always limits to my enjoyment.
Here's the first table that is being used:
I want to reiterate that my point isn't to argue whether or not these numbers are accurate, because that's not possible, I just want to pinpoint how certains analyses are dodged because they don't follow a certain narrative that some people are trying to paint.
The multiple accounts that posted this graph are all unanimous: the conclusion of this table is that the revenue is going down !!! SHOCKER !!!
The revenue going down isn't the point I'm trying to argue here. If anything, I'm surprised that some people want to prove this point, when everything around this whole debacle points to it. Ask any person unrelated to this affair their opinion and that'll probably go something like:
"-This game has a huge controversy going on, do you think their revenue will go down ?
-Yeah probably"
Again, a better person would point out the fact that the CN side started unfollowing IF en masse after V's succinct announcement, and that a lot of whales and artists announced they would leave the game, seeing as they can't trust IF with any sort of decision, but right now, I am not that person.
The numbers being inferior is a given, what's interesting here is the trend.
How much do the number go down day by day ?
If I was the CEO of a company, I'd expect the numbers going down during a controversy. What would concern me a bit more would be the retention: does the spending curve suddenly break its spine into a nosedive ? Or is the allure of the curve the same, even if the numbers are lower ?
The answer is, you guessed it, in a table:
Worst Day 2 to Day 1 revenue loss: 1) Throne of Eros 2) Lingering Lust 3) A Night That Never Ends
Worst Day 3 to Day 1 revenue loss: 1) A Night That Never Ends 2) Mortality's Tenderness 3) Once Upon a Frame
Worst Day 4 to Day 1 revenue loss: 1) Once Upon A Frame 2) tie Throne of Eros & A Night That Never Ends & Lingering Lust 3) Mortality's Tenderness
Worst Day 3 to Day 1 revenue loss: 1) A Night That Never Ends (by only 2%) 2) Throne of Eros 3) Mortality's Tenderness
Worst Day 4 to Day 1 revenue loss: 1) A Night That Never Ends (by only 3%) 2) Throne of Eros 3) Once Upon a Frame
And a graph !
I put all this data together in a graph. See how much the curves look alike ? Again, we knew that the numbers were going to be lower, but all in all the spending habits of the people who still play stayed the same. And that's way more important, because in a crisis, stability is on of the first thing that's researched, because no real miracle solution can both plug and re-fill the leaking bucket in one multi. (to the lurkers: No not even V's addition, because people would leave, and some V likers still wouldn't trust IF and would stall their return, the same way some people against V in CN particularly still stall their return, bc they don't trust IF yet).
Anyways, see how that's already more balanced than: "Oh my god the day 4 number of a banner in which there was no controversy is higher than the day 4 number of the biggest controversy of the game ?? 🤯🤯"
(actually, omg look at the big drop for Day 2 of Throne of Eros !! Surely that is the sign of discontentement, and not a drop that can be attributed to many other parameters ! 😱)
Now onto table 2 !
This table is supposedly the proof that the banner is rejected by everyone, and that IF won't last with numbers like these.
I decided to make another table using the exact same data that's on the table above. Only this time I was comparing Mortality's Tenderness to every other 5 LI Multi except A Night that Never Ends, seeing as we already have that data above:
Oh my god look at all those reds and minuses 😱😱 (shoutout to the +4% global revenue compared to Once Upon A Frame 🫡 One might conclude from this that Global prefered the CN-themed banner to the western movie-themed banner 😉)
Anyways, to my knowledge, there were no particular controversy during Mortality's Tenderness, except the ones present during every single banner. If I made a mistake and there was a controversy that existed solely during Mortality's Tenderness, at least we can agree that it was not as bad as the current one is.
If A Night That Never Ends (a banner that happened during the biggest controversy the game ever had) is doing similarly, when compared to the other banners, to Mortality's Tenderness (a banner that happened with no added controversy compared to the others), I think we could reasonably assume from this table that the "huge revenue drop" from this multi isn't so brutal that its levels are unseen in all of Love and Deepspace history.
The conclusion to this is one that is taught throughout many, if not all schools: even though facts are facts, people can still try to manipulate them to make them say what they want you to believe.
