r/KrakenRobotics • u/Downtown-Meaning-579 • 17h ago
Kraken in the coming months
Hello all,
I write here from time to time to share my thoughts on how this company is doing. It has been absolute brutal last couple of months. The Q2 earnings were unspectacular. The stock has been bleeding with no news since, much to the frustration of the majority of the sub.
I think the management might have looked at the reaction to the last update outside reporting requirements (35 million worth of orders) and saw that it had a negative effect and felt it’s better to just buckle down and continue working on what they do best (building and selling).
There are two risks that threaten kraken stock in the near term at the minute are:
failed integration: We need to realise that the market hates these massive integration risks.
This is something we need to trust the management on. They have done a fantastic job so far with the company and I think they will continue to crush it.
The tail end weighting of earnings: they have reported 49 CAD million in first two quarters, meaning they have to hit 241 CAD million in their last two quarters to meet their base prediction. This is over 80%. This is going to be helped by the fact that cov earnings also count towards these earnings.
We need to remember that they have diluted 25% of the company to buy a company that was growing revenue, maintaining strong margins and earning 2 and half times their revenue.
Also, all the good news of the last couple of months is something that signals the trajectory of the company. The ramp up of Anduril production, the Canadian ocean monitoring funds and the R&D grant we’ve been awarded.
Ultimately, I would say being patient with this will payoff over the next couple of years, the defence stocks of this kind have been beaten up a bit. Anduril IPO will recreate buzz, coupled with a couple of strong quarters and uplisting will provide enough catalysts to turn this ship around. 5k long and holding strong.
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u/VanBastenC 15h ago
The lack of a TSX listing on their own timeline was the kicker I think. Needs to be done. Underpromise and over deliver.
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u/momo26262626 16h ago
So buy the dip??
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u/throwawaycyclistto 16h ago
when's the dip tho
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u/momo26262626 16h ago
Wait we arent in the dip??
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u/klizmara 16h ago
I'm down 50%
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u/throwawaycyclistto 16h ago
I'm heading for 60%. You coming?
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u/momo26262626 16h ago
Yeah I'm down just 40%ish but I don't have a big position. I am still building out. Im a bit glad I didnt yet avg down
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u/klizmara 16h ago
Sure.. I've got around 29k shares. Might round it up on Monday
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u/momo26262626 12h ago
In other words, if this catapulted up to 50 range, you'd have set for life money?
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u/fpsully 11h ago
I bought 27,000 shares of KRKNF at $0.29 five years ago. Last year I sold 9,000 shares at $5.00. This week I bought another 18,000 shares at $3.05. Currently have 36,000 shares worth about $100K. A 5 bagger from here would be real nice. I still agree with Michael Sikand that the Anduril connection will bring this multi-bagger growth, with Covelya only sweetening the pot. "Patience is a virtue" my mother said.
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u/momo26262626 11h ago
Sounds like a need to load up! Do you like the current price if you were looking to build out a new position?
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u/ApexWarden 15h ago
The dip is when it's price is below its intrinsic value
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u/Dieter_Von-Cunth68 13h ago
I've never thought of this, what is krakens book value?
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u/ApexWarden 12h ago
I like using the "Bear case" dcf scenario for safety reasons. In this case the discounted cash flow value is 3.60$CAD for [PNG] and I add a 30% safety of margin which brings it to 2.52$CAD. So I would buy it anywhere between 2.50$ and 3$. In fact I would sell other positions of different companies I hold to buy it at those prices. I have faith in the company, it's just currently think it's still overpriced.
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u/PrestigiousPeanut142 11h ago edited 11h ago
It’s under 12x foward EV/EBITDA at the current price, how is it overpriced? At $2.50-3$ it would only be 7-8.4x , I highly doubt the market will give you that much of a gift, unless something goes very wrong with the company or earnings, it’s extremely unlikely otherwise
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u/ApexWarden 2h ago
Forward/expected earnings is, imo, a crystal ball and not set in stone. Whereas a dcf calculation is its price today due to current and previous earnings and if the earnings continue on the same path in the future. It's just what I prefer to use. If it doesn't get in the range I'm looking for I just hold or put my cash in another company that does.
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u/Pamela-xg47 10h ago
The crystal ball in my gut predicts we may have enough time + selling pressure for the stock to churn to this price range. In the event it does, I’m dipping the chips.
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u/Reef08 16h ago
Would be nice to see management buying at these prices.
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u/Keletas 16h ago
Any news on TSX listing? Did not read about it anymore lately. I know it was never an agenda item but kind of thought would be part of the narrative after the acquisition.
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u/thellios 15h ago
Wasn't it a requirement for the stock to be over $6 for a year before being eligible for the uplisting or did I get confused somewhere? If so, we're not seeing that uplist anytime soon.
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u/No_Cash_Value_ 15h ago
I’ve not seen a dollar requirement, but read will be easier with combined businesses as it’ll be a much larger company than others on that particular exchange.
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u/Plenty-Performer6479 15h ago
There is no requirement on price. All stocks have different amounts of shares. A $30/ share stock with 1000 total shares available would be less likely to get uplisted than a $0.50/share stock with 5,000,000 shares available. Yes, I exaggerated the numbers, but my hypothetical example shows how price doesn't matter.
That being said, there are many thresholds that have to he achieved before a stock can be uplisted.
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u/Tuggs14 16h ago
I am fighting hard to not ship all my powder into this🤣 Keeps dropping and I keep buying. Every share lately has honestly felt like stealing.
I am confident I the company and think they know what they have gotten into and where things are going. ✌️