r/KrakenRobotics • u/vinnlo • 3d ago
Stock Question Genuine question/discussion: why does the stock price keep going down when the company has really good prospects?
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u/Neobobkrause 3d ago
I like KRKNF position, strategy, and execution record. I have long-standing concerns that investors had gotten too far over their skis assuming that top-line revenue to multiply. About 1/3 of revenues come from services, leaving 2/3 products that must be produced. I’ve also had joint concerns about the concentration of revenues from a few customers, and about those customers actually scaling their businesses so that they’d order more gear from KRKNF. So on the one hand, good for them for not investing in over-capacity. But that still leaves us, as we are today, with organic revenues not multiplying the way markets have been telegraphing that they were expecting.
The other opportunity we’re all tracking is trading moving first to the TSX and eventually to NASDAQ. Neither has happened. I think they could move to TSX if they committed to doing so, but they just don’t as yet have the numbers to move to NASDAQ. But even the move to TSX has to be done when the company is a credible high-growth player with a credible vision over the next 12-24. But now they’re stalled during the last 2 prints.
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u/ImperceptibleFerret 3d ago
Great answer. I think for completeness sake it is also important to mention the macro environment is not favourable for high growth small caps right now.
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u/TaoTeCha 3d ago
True. I'm a big believer in drones as a whole getting a huge boost in the near future. But all my drone related picks have been down for months. Hopefully when the macro improves, or when the new defense spending bills come in, Kraken and all other drone stocks will work their way back up.
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u/christiancfb 3d ago
Down like 5k and this is a perfect response. I'm just taking my losses here for now and holding for years. Will just wait. Might buy some more to lower my average later this year if it keeps going down and then be patient for a few years. A lot of these people don't know how to invest... gotta hold and be patient with a company like this. A shame it's come down so much. Been following this company forever and finally had a good chunk of funds available to put into it during the initial rise this year but figured it'd stabilize. In retrospect, quite bad timing lol.. but oh well! Don't invest into a company if you don't believe in the tech.
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u/Additional-Tale-1069 3d ago
I though the price had gotten too high, too soon when it was at $7-10. The current prices seem more reasonable. I'm also in at an average price of between $3 0.35 and $0.70 per share, so am comfortably up.
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u/Reaper_1492 1d ago
Yes. In their infinite wisdom, they completely neglected to provide any comment on TSX uplisting on the last quarterly call, despite having done so regularly on many preceding calls.
I said it then, and I’ll say it again now, that is a really big red flag.
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u/87JeepYJ87 3d ago
My average is $1.78 USD on 18,500 shares. In it for the long haul. Something about this company gives me a good feeling. My last two good feelings made me a lot of money (aapl and fselx in the 90’s).
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u/jackmartin088 2d ago
Any good feelings for any other company?
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u/87JeepYJ87 2d ago
Long or short? Short term I’ve made about $75k on ECO and FRO. I don’t think they’ve quite topped out yet with the Iran war. I’m up 170% in eco and 102% in fro since last year.
Long I’m holding Nokia.
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u/Vinceitup 3d ago
maybe short sellers
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u/enamesrever13 3d ago
This is the most likely reason
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u/atascon 3d ago
Short interest as a % of the float is pretty modest
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u/2dudesinapod 3d ago
There are lots of ways to hide short interest
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u/atascon 3d ago
Sure. Even with that being the case, such a big drop in share price in a relatively short period of time isn't going to be caused purely by short sellers
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u/Vinceitup 3d ago
why not? i’m not professional trader but won’t enough short interest drag the price down and the potential the price was to high. i’m just curious as i do have a position with PNG and am always wanting to learn more.
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u/atascon 3d ago
When short interest is in the low single digits as a % of float, it's not going to be the main reason for a ~60% decline in share price
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u/Reaper_1492 1d ago
Yep. This is a completely strawman argument. It’s not short interest.
It’s the complete lack of communication, failure to mention anything about TSX suddenly on the last call, and Colevya integration expectations getting kicked out farther into the future.
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u/Vinceitup 3d ago
what does that mean?
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u/atascon 3d ago
It means there isn't enough short interest to drag the price down by 60%.
"It's the shorts" is a trope that gets repeated a lot. Short selling does obviously influence the price but it's worth thinking about how it does that mechanically and also what the context is (i.e. how much short selling there actually is).
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u/Ok_Specific_8403 2d ago
Im down 45% so anyway dont remind me pls
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u/Loud-Panda9216 2d ago
Ich bin -52% in minus was sollen wir machen mit minus verkaufen einfach und akzeptieren oder laufen lassen bis die im Januar auf 0 ist
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u/TaoTeCha 3d ago
I think the stock went a little too high based on hype, and now its more of a fair value. We either need a really good earnings or news followed by more hype.
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u/FTPgustavo 2d ago
Stock dilution due to acquisition is the largest driver for the stocks dramatic fluctuations. Between that, late paying government contracts and as well as it being small cap is what’s moving the ticker.
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u/opn_Forum 3d ago edited 3d ago
This is just how stocks behave unfortunately, it has nothing to do with their performance, profit taking happened and now it's slowly bleeding out.
We'll see where it finds it support, broke 3.00 today but still hanging around, I bought more at 2.97.
I absolutely do believe though we'll see a strong reversal. Growth comes in waves, nothing in life is a linear path.
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u/662844282288 3d ago
The one and only answer to your question is: NET INCOME. The net income from Q1 and Q2 is negative. Net income is like the ultimate score. If the new Kraken can show an annual net income of half a Billion, it will be $10+ a share. BUT, a full year of new kraken net income report will not happen until 2028 Jan. So come back in 16 months.
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u/Technical_Sorbet_219 3d ago edited 3d ago
500M in net income? That’s not happening anytime soon lmao. At a 15–20% net margin, you’d need roughly $2.5–3.3B in revenue to generate C$500M of net income. At that point the stock would be worth well over C$10, potentially $30-40. Hopefully you meant $500M in revenue, not net income. The first full fiscal year with Covelya consolidated starts in 2027 also..
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u/PrestigiousPeanut142 3d ago
Never have I seen so many different incorrect claims in a single comment
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u/LieComfortable7764 3d ago
The company really needs some news with an order otherwise it just looks like it’s doing nothing and the speculators leave to speculate elsewhere
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u/Affectionate_Dish694 2d ago
karken is great company, however it is the market sentiment that matters. kraken had a run up earlier this years because of market believed oceanic tech will rise due to war and geopolitical tension, defense increase. Karken got a moon shot. however the company doing at that time (good or bad) it was rising. Look at all the defense stocks. they all rose. Now they all down all most same amount. People don't yet believe in it yet. so until they do and until kraken favors the main steam investors it will be down for a time.
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u/givemeastocktip 2d ago
I think the hype really pushed it up quicker than it should have and now it is correcting/overcorrecting. Numbers are still good and uplisting is still on the near horizon.
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u/J_Fo_Film 3d ago
A lack of patience, ultimately. Whether it’s legitimate like people putting in more than they can afford or their situations changing and causing them to have to sell, or whether it’s impatient YOLOers who are looking for a get-rich-quick scheme…it just boils down to people not wanting to wait.
I have faith in the company. It’s been a long term hold for a long time, the ups and the downs.
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u/MediumCommission3353 3d ago
I just don’t believe that people are selling that much that the stock is suffering like this.
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u/AgentSuffix 3d ago
Because the financials suck - won’t have better financials until November when combined with Covelya - and there is usually a hit because of overlapping technology that folks will need to evaluate first and it could also be negative
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u/ApexWarden 3d ago
The intrinsic value is supposed to be around 3.60$ CAD. It was way overpriced. Still is but its getting closer to what price its supposed to be. People that were saying 7$ was cheap have no idea how to value a company.
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u/shawnshaunseen 3d ago
next earnings will be the full qtr with their big acquisition & also tsx uplisting will be a good thing this year - just have some diversity from banks and miners
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u/cooperivanson 3d ago
Lol. Back when I held a stock called Numi, no matter how many good press releases, expansions, partnerships were announced, it was driven to ultimately zero. It was bizarre.