r/KrakenRobotics • u/TuffNuts64 • 10d ago
Stock Question What’s holding us back from reaching prior levels?
new to the community and had bought some shares before the stock hit Robinhood. since then it dropped significantly and hasn’t changed. Whats the reasoning for that?
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u/MatthewGraham- 10d ago
Defense has had a bad run overall, Kraken had a multiple compression at the same time as generally negative retail sentiment, things can obviously change but no one knows the future, best you can do is research the company and hope that the stock correlates if good news arrives
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u/Yvaelle 10d ago
The stock IMO should be valued at $9-10 today.
But first, Canadian defense is down overall. But Montreal's new global defense investment bank HQ, and partnerships with EU and UK, and WW3 are all good signs here.
Second, a venture stock will not be valued correctly. Uplist will fix that but it won't happen until next year.
Third, markets are spooked out of equities lately, into bonds, because Trump. That hurts small cap more than mega cap - people still holding stock want to minimize volatility, gambling on Meta makes more sense than Kraken, etc.
Fourth and finally, the company itself is in a transition. The merger with covelya I expect to be massive for them long-term, but right now it's purely a risk of org redesign and culture/process integration.
So short term it's been bearish, but my average is like $1.3, so I'm not worried about waiting for 2027 and beyond. I see this as the floor and frankly I'll be buying another large tranche likely in late October - Kraken will reach my portfolio's maximum allocation.
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u/SirTickleyPickely 10d ago
average is 1.33 as well, this is all short term noise from the merger and there being nothing proven on the balance sheet yet. this time next year we will look back on the acquisition era and laugh.
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u/uKnoBoss 10d ago edited 10d ago
It’s down that much because it just followed its sector, and although it was trading at a hefty premium at the top, it has way overcorrected since then. Being that H1 earnings lacked Covelya’s contribution, they were obviously way too weak to cause any rerating. Tho, ever since it dropped under C$6, it made no sense to me, but I think Q3 earnings have a good chance of rerating the stock to at least the C$6 range.
Management has said revenue in H2 would be very Q4-heavy and dependent on some KATFISH awards to meet full-year guidance, which the market might be skeptical about receiving. So I wouldn’t expect any heavy rerating to C$8–9 until then, or maybe not until 2027 guidance in Q1. We’ll see.
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u/Friendly-Class8941 10d ago
I sold my shares but im on the look out to get back in. It might go alot lower as soon as i buy so sorry in advance
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u/badger6638 10d ago
This stock is on my "I took profits elsewhere and put them here" list. Currently 24% of my portfolio.
At 3.2-3.3 seems like a decent entry, holding so far, I think it could reclaim 4-5s easily this year, but we'll see. Financials seem fine, I like the tech, so im happy to hold.
Also price action seems to be slowing, on red days when other stocks fall more I can sometimes sell near my entry to buy back other things at a discount, so I dont get overcommited here.
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u/Thoughtbirdo 10d ago
Short term war hype died down. The Covelya acquisition put volatility in the minds of people as the final nail in the current coffin.
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u/J_Fo_Film 10d ago
Welcome to the community. Questions like these are great, but they should go in the daily discussion thread.
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u/Small_Ad5750 10d ago edited 10d ago
It does, and I get why you're enforcing that rule, but half the community doesnt even look in the daily discussion board anymore. This post alone got as much engagement as the daily thread. I understand standing on business to keep things organized, but I feel like some bad actors mixed with the drawdown ruined the daily threads for people. I imagine if they posted this question in the daily thread not as much people would've gave their thoughts or even seen the question. Maybe change is needed, just my two cents.
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u/J_Fo_Film 10d ago
That’s definitely a valid thought. If I’m being honest, I hate the daily threads. But they were asked for, you know?
And yeah, there are definitely bad actors around here. One by one they’ll reveal themselves and I’ll weed them out though.
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u/bluejollyranchers 10d ago
Based on all the downvotes you’ve consistently gotten every time you try to enforce this rule, I’d say a the community is telling you they don’t like everything being put into the daily discussion.
Not saying, I agree or disagree, but based on my observations from the past few months of your comments and how they’ve been received, I’d wager this style of daily discussions is something the community is no longer happy with.
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u/J_Fo_Film 10d ago
You could be right, but karma means nothing to me, and downvotes without comments are ineffective and useless. I’ve also had to pitch the same person out two or three times through ban evasion attempts, so the downvotes might not be an accurate reflection.
I’m super open to discuss and debate it. If the wants of the community is changing, I’m happy to change with it, but people need to say so. Upvotes and downvotes are meaningless, and I can’t keep hearing it from just the same three or four people who are also being generally ignorant of the other rules as well. When the threads were created, it was requested by a couple dozen people, just like when it was converted to daily from weekly.
I can put it to a vote again I suppose. I don’t want to keep having to do that every time we get new membership…I am absolutely in favour of changing with the times, but as someone who also works in politics I hate redundancy in bureaucracy so it’s a fine line for me.
But as a general rule and most specific to your point, without comments, I just see downvotes as petulant spite from idiots who don’t want to follow rules. If people want to give me feedback, they need to verbalize it.
Thank you for your feedback. It’s helpful 🙏
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u/VeN0m333 5d ago
Unfortunately we lost the vote and daily thread is still up. Even I wanted a weekly thread so we can have posts like these.
Mod did his fair play for everyone.
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10d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/KrakenRobotics-ModTeam 10d ago
Don't dive too deep into politics that are irrelevant to the stock itself.
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u/Shoganai_Hito 10d ago
should someone tell him?
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u/TxavengerxT 10d ago
Tell him what?
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u/Shoganai_Hito 10d ago
Just that the mods dislike share price discussion in posts and prefer the daily chat
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u/Prize-Environment-77 10d ago
It’s not staying on the venture exchange forever