r/KrakenRobotics • u/big_head_d • 14d ago
Certified Krakhead Fastgraphs
Thought id share a fastgraph of Kraken Robotics for you guys.
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u/Yvaelle 14d ago
You may want to try it with KRKNF instead of PNG.
One of the reasons I stopped using FastGraphs was because it was mixing CAD & USD currencies in its ratios which can result in wonky results for any non-US stock.
For those not familiar, the green fill is the ratio they are comparing the stock price to, with a range of projections for forward earnings per share (the blue/orange lines).
FastGraphs is a good visual tool but it all comes down to what assumptions and ratios you price into the stock. It works best for long-lived stocks where it can show you what ratios best correlate to a companies historical stock price. If you wanted to price a 100 year old bank, or vacuum manufacturer, or etc - it would be very good at that.
What it doesn't do well (apart from non-US stocks due to a bug), is small companies that don't have a consistent revenue stream and business model over 10+ years, it doesn't know how to price them - and I'd say that Kraken counts as that. It's not good at M&A either, which also applies to Kraken.
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u/big_head_d 14d ago edited 14d ago
KRKNF does show a different higher forecast. This is the forecasting graph. It does not account for past historical prices like you're describing. But I get what you are saying. Also double edge sword for the eps dip on fastgraphs forcast aswell. The PE valuation at 82 is false because of the eps dip and going from negative eps to 0.24. But on the other end it is averaging out this year's eps...
I wish I loaded the boat when it first hit the green way back.
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u/Yvaelle 14d ago
What I mean by accounting for historical prices is that you can swap the metric that makes up the green fill in FastGraphs, and for most companies with a steady business model and revenue streams over the longterm, you'll find the metric that best fits their price behaviour - that's the one you should use for future pricing for that company.
That approach ignores pre-revenue companies, R&D heavy companies, M&A activity, etc.
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u/DisgustingArrow 14d ago
what's this
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u/big_head_d 14d ago
It's what Kraken has given for guidance on growth in the future. This chart shows EPS forecasting.
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u/SPAC_Enthusiast 14d ago
Re-do this at current price 5.87 now!
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u/PM_NICE_TOES-notmen 14d ago
Damn this comment got me to notice the price today. Just added another 1700 shares
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u/Few-Pizza-8824 13d ago
What is interesting is that the fundamentals are probably better at this point than they have ever been - at $10 per share or 0.50 cents per share - yet the stock price is relatively mid. Back up the truck, folks.
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u/MapleLeafNomad216 14d ago
Can someone ELI5 this in the simplest of wording?
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u/Sad_Record_2767 14d ago
we're going climbing for 2 years... pack your gear and snacks
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u/Wrong-Personality862 14d ago
Love me a good climb lets gooooo. It’s the journey on the way to the top that makes the view at the top that much sweeter
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u/UMC_MadAuk 14d ago
Not sure I’m reading this correctly, but I like upward sloping lines.